Coordinated efforts produce new forecast methodologies
17th April 2016
Two new documents explain the forecast methodologies for implants and DMPA IM that have been developed by the Coalition’s Coordinated Supply Planning (CSP) group. There is a growing need within our field to better understand both global demand for contraceptives and the ability of the market to fill that demand. The CSP forecast methodology is a pioneering effort to close that gap by combining within a single calculus, detailed consumption data for certain countries along with supplier provided shipment data. The April 2016 CSP forecast shows the annual demand for implants increasing to 21-25 million by 2022.
The DMPA IM forecast, by contrast, is a direct comparison of two different forecast methodologies, one developed by Concept Foundation and The William Davidson Institute, and the other by the CSP. Although each group of organizations took different approaches to estimating growth rates, they ended up with similar results. They estimate that demand will grow to between 170-180 million vials by 2021.