Reducing Stockouts Impact Calculator

The model is based on an analysis by Futures Institute that used three different approaches to estimate the effects of stockouts on MCPR. These approaches are based on the following analyses.

1. A multilevel analysis of method availability and CPR at the sub-national level in East Africa (Wang W, Wang S. How Does the Family Planning Supply and Service Environment Affect Contraceptive Use? Findings from Four East African Countries. Measure DHS, ICF Macro, August 25, 2011.
2. A national cross-section analysis of method availability and CPR (Karim, Ali Mehryar, Briton Bieze, and Jaya Chimnani. 2008. Measuring Family Planning Logistics System Performance in Developing Countries: Working Paper. Arlington, Va.: USAID | DELIVER PROJECT, Task Order 1.)
3.  A cross-section analysis of the  relationship between method availability as measured by the Family Planning Effort Scores and MCPR (Ross J, Stover J. Use of Modern Contraception Increases When More Methods Become Available, 2013, forthcoming in Global Health: Science and Practice)

These analyses indicate that adding or removing one method results in a change in MCPR of 5-8 points. This model uses this relationship and equates a partial stockout with a partial loss of a method. The model sums to stockout rates for the five methods shown for both the current situation and the target. The difference is multiplied by 7 points to estimate the increase in MCPR resulting from achieving the target.

The additional benefits of increased use of modern methods area calculated from the number of additional users and the benefits per user as reported in Adding It Up (Adding It Up: The Costs and Benefits of Investing in Family Planning and Maternal and Newborn Health, Guttmacher Institute and UNFPA, 2009.). These are 3153 additional users per maternal death averted, 251 additional users per infant death averted, 6.46 additional users per abortion averted and 3.63 additional users per unintended pregnancy averted.

The results are intended to illustrate the magnitude of benefits to be expected from a focus on reducing stockouts. Since the impacts are based on international averages the results will not be precise for each country-setting. In addition, good data on the current extent of stockouts are not available for all countries. Nevertheless, this model can be used to illustrate the importance of efforts to reduce or eliminate stockouts as a barrier to expanded access to family planning.