Uganda: A Total Market Approach. PSI/UNFPA Joint Studies on the Total Market for Male Condoms in 6 African Countries.

Publication date: 2013

UGANDA A TOTAL M A R K E T A P P R O A C H F O R M A L E C O N D O M S Contents GREETINGS 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2 METHODS 3 STATE OF THE MARKET 4 INTRODUCTION 6 Health Context 6 HIV Situation 7 Public Sector 8 Social Marketing Sector 9 Commercial Sector 10 RESULTS 11 Universe of Need 11 Condom Use 12 Market Volume 13 Missions: UNFPA and PSI Recommended citation: Pallin, S.C., D. Meekers, K. Longfield, O. Lupu. November 2013. Uganda: A Total Market Approach. PSI/UNFPA Joint Studies on the Total Market for Male Condoms in 6 African Countries. Retrieved from www.psi.org/total-market-approach UNFPA, THE UNITED NATIONS POPULATION FUND, delivers a world where every pregnancy is wanted, every birth is safe, and every young person's potential is fulfilled. PSI, POPULATION SERVICES INTERNATIONAL, makes it easier for people in the developing world to lead healthier lives and plan the families they desire by marketing affordable products and services. Market Value 14 Subsidy 15 Number of Brands 15 Equity 16 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES 17 RECOMMENDATIONS 18 Informed Demand 18 Equitable Distribution 18 Coordination 18 Pricing 19 Mapping and Reporting 19 ACRONYM KEY 19 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 20 REFERENCES 21 COVER PHOTO: TODD SHAPERA, COURTESY OF PHOTOSHARE TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 1 M ale condoms offer dual protection against HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs), as well as unplanned pregnancy. All of these factors are important to our two agencies— UNFPA, the United Nations Population Fund, and PSI, Population Services International — and are critical for delivering the health impact we both strive to achieve. This case study is part of a series that UNFPA and PSI have produced over the course of a year. The series takes a critical look at the communities in which we operate and helps us understand how both agencies can improve our support in those communities and our engagement with other stakeholders, to grow and strengthen the total market for condoms. We focused our efforts on six African countries — Botswana, Lesotho, Mali, South Africa, Swaziland, and Uganda — that have large condom social marketing programs, are affected by the HIV epidemic, and have high maternal morbidity and mortality relative to their economic development. This series of case studies is intended to inform appropriate evidence-based decisions that increase condom use equitably and sustainably through actions undertaken in all supply sectors. Employing such a total market approach (TMA) means that all three sectors — public, social marketing, and commercial — work together to deliver health choices for all population segments. We will work together and with other partners to increase condom use and grow the market in a responsible way. Our long-term goal is to offer options to those most in need, people seeking to live their lives free from HIV and unplanned pregnancy. ● Sincerely, BRUCE CAMPBELL Director, Technical Division, UNFPA KIM LONGFIELD Director, Research and Metrics, PSI Greetings A MESSAGE FROM BRUCE CAMPBELL AND KIM LONGFIELD We will work together and with other partners to increase condom use and grow the market to serve those most in need. MALI UGANDA BOTSWANA SOUTH AFRICA LESOTHO SWAZILAND TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 2 Executive Summary I n Uganda, the use and availability of male condoms is essential to preventing unplanned pregnancy and the spread of diseases such as HIV/AIDS. From 1992 to 2002, Uganda successfully reduced the prevalence of HIV/AIDS from 18% to approximately 6%; however, some concerning trends are emerging and HIV prevalence has increased with an estimated 7.3% of adults currently infected. Despite some opposition from religious and political leaders, male condoms continue to be an important part of Uganda’s national strategy for HIV prevention, and the dual protection offered by condoms is a key component of reproductive health programs. In Uganda’s current market, the number of condoms needed to protect all sexual acts from HIV infection and unplanned pregnancy (universe of need) is much higher than the actual number of condoms on the market (volume). Condom use among the general population has increased, but overall demand still remains low, which helps explain why volumes are also low. Rates of use are higher among youth, but have decreased within some groups, including males with casual partners and females with multiple partners. In addition, equitable distribution of free or subsidized condoms has not improved since 2006: individuals in the wealthiest quintile were still much more likely to report condom use than those in poorer quintiles The condom market in Uganda consists of three sectors: the public sector, which distributes fully subsidized (free) condoms, the social marketing sector, which distributes partially subsidized condoms at low cost, and the commercial sector, which sells condoms for a profit. In 2011, the value of the total market was estimated at $5,091,264, a 28% increase from the market value in 2006. Approximately 98% of condoms on the market were fully or partially subsidized and commercial sector activity was negligible. Concerns about appropriate pricing strategies, “crowding out” the commercial sector, and inefficiencies in the use of public funds, prompted the Program for Accessible Health, Communication and Education (PACE), PSI’s Ugandan affiliate, and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) to adopt a total market approach (TMA) to help manage the condom supply in Uganda. The total market approach provides an opportunity for improved efficiency, equity, and sustainability in Uganda’s market for male condoms. TMA requires that the three sectors – public, social marketing, and commercial – work together to “grow the condom market” and meet the needs of different segments of the population. The results of our study yielded several important findings. As it stands, condom subsidy programs in Uganda have been inefficient, with wealthier classes benefitting from free and socially marketed condoms. A lack of collaboration between the three market sectors has resulted in an erratic condom supply, which disproportionately affects the poor and those living in rural areas. Enhanced reporting systems could improve commodity projections and forecasting, which would help identify market needs as well as gaps in supply. The overall Ugandan condom market has suffered from limited growth and demand for condoms must be increased, especially among Ugandans with multiple or casual partners. The presence of three socially marketed condoms on the market could be crowding out the commercial sector, especially if prices are not set high enough to encourage the commercial sector to become active on the market. ● The Total Market Approach (TMA) seeks to maximize market efficiency, equity, and sustainability through the coordination of the public, social marketing, and commercial sectors. METRIC DEFINITION CALCULATION The number of products or services needed to reach universal coverage in the market HIV: Male population 15-64 multiplied by average number of risky sex acts per man per year FP: Female population 15-49 multiplied by method mix multiplied by CYP conversion factor* The number of products or services sold, distributed, or provided in a given market The percentage of the population at risk using a product or service, or adopting a behavior Total number of condoms distributed in the public, social marketing, and commercial sectors Percentage of males and females reporting condom use at last sex The dollar value of the total number of products or services in a given market Average consumer price multiplied by market volume The number of distinct brands for a product in a given market Total number of condom brands on the market The value of total subsidies (excludes operating and support costs) For each brand: the difference between market volume multiplied by unit COGS, and market volume multiplied by average consumer price The degree to which products or services are used or adopted across socio-economic strata Percentage of condom users that fall within the bottom two wealth quintiles UNIVERSE OF NEED USE MARKET VOLUME MARKET VALUE MARKET SUBSIDY EQUITY INDEX NUMBER OF BRANDS * USAID CYP conversion factors provide the units of products needed per one couple year of protection2 TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 3 Methods This list of TMA metrics comes from the literature and a set of metrics PSI has committed to measuring across countries.1 TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 4 State of the Market Sources: UNAIDS Investment Framework Study Group3; UN Population Division, 2010 revision4; Uganda DHS 20115; USAID conversion factors2; Guttmacher Institute. (2011). Adding it up: The costs and benefits of investing in family planning and maternal and newborn health (estimation methodology).6 Sources: DHS 20067 and DHS 20118 Sources: PSI9, PACE10, Ministry of Health11, Marie Stopes Uganda12, Uganda Health Marketing Group13 *2012 data were unavailable UNIVERSE OF NEED CALCULATION: HIV: Male population 15-64 multiplied by average number of risky sex acts per man per year FP: Female population 15-49 multiplied by method mix multiplied by CYP conversion factor MARKET VOLUME CALCULATION: Total number of condoms distributed in the public, social marketing and commercial sectors USE CALCULATION: Percentage of males and females reporting condom use at last sex 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 UN IVERSE OF NEED – H IV PREVENTION UN IVERSE OF NEED – FAM I LY PLANN ING TOTAL D ISTR IBUTION M IL LI ON S OF C ON DO M S 0 10 20 30 40 2001 2006 FEMALES AGED 15–49 MALES AGED 15–49 UNMARRIED MALES AGED 15–24 UNMARRIED FEMALES AGED 15–24 Percentage of respondents with casual partners in the last year who reported condom use at last sex 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 17.2% 55.9% 7.9% 39.3% 19.1% 62.7% 53.6% 2011 FEMALES AGED 15–49MALES AGED 15–49 UNMARRIED MALES AGED 15–24UNMARRIED FEMALES AGED 15–24 PE RC EN TA GE O F RE SP ON DE NT S W HO US ED A C ON DO M A T LA ST S EX 12.1% 58.2% 35.7% 2011 59.2% 34.9% 2006 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 M IL LI ON S OF C ON DO M S SOCIAL MARKETING COMMERCIAL SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 5 Sources DHS 20067 and DHS 20118 Sources: PSI9, PACE10,14,15, Marie Stopes Uganda12,16, Uganda Health Marketing Group13,17 Source: PACE15 Sources: PSI9,18, PACE10,14,15, Marie Stopes Uganda12,16, Uganda Health Marketing Group13,17 0 $1,000,000 $2,000,000 $3,000,000 $4,000,000 $5,000,000 $6,000,000 20112006 NUMBER OF BRANDS CALCULATION: Total number of condom brands on the market EQUITY CALCULATION: Percentage of condom users that fall within the bottom two wealth quintiles 98% of condoms fully or partially subsidizied $2,924,305 USh 7.6 billion Estimated subsidy for public sector and socially marketed condoms 2% commercial sector condoms SUBSIDY CALCULATION: For each brand: the difference between market volume multiplied by cost of goods sold (COGS), and market volume multiplied by average retail price $4,037,245 Ush 10.3 billion $3,460,286 Ush 6.4 billion 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 QUINTILE 1 QU INTILE 2 QU INTILE 3 QU INTILE 4 QU INTILE 5 FEMALES 2006 MALES 2006 FEMALES 2011 MALES 2011 WEALTH PE RC EN TA GE MARKET VALUE CALCULATION: Average consumer price multiplied by market volume AVERAGE CONSUMER PRICE MARKET VOLUME MARKET VALUE ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● at least 19 different brands of condoms on the market TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 6 Introduction HEALTH CONTEXT Uganda has been widely praised as a success story in the fight against HIV/AIDS, with a reduction in prevalence from 18% in 1992 to 6.1% in 2002.19,20 Much of this early success has been attributed to ABC (Abstinence, Be faithful, Condom use) prevention campaigns, an approach addressing different aspects of sexual behavior change.21 However, early successes with the ABC approach are giving way to more alarming trends. Prevalence has increased slightly in recent years, and an estimated 7.3% of adults are currently infected with HIV. Prevalence is higher among key populations at risk, including sex workers and their partners, men who have sex with men, and boda boda riders.22 Risky behaviors like casual sex, sex with multiple partners, and transactional sex also contribute to the epidemic.19, 22-27 Public health officials around the globe have long recognized that widespread access to male condoms is crucial for preventing new HIV infections, particularly among those who engage in risky sexual behaviors. In addition to providing protection against HIV infection, condoms also play a critical role in preventing unplanned pregnancy, known as dual protection. While information on dual protection is not currently collected in national surveys, we know that more than one- third of Ugandan women reported an unmet need for family planning in 2011.5 Despite these compelling reasons for a robust condom market in Uganda, many religious and political leaders in Uganda oppose the use of condoms. Our research indicates that numerous changes must be made to improve condom use and ensure access to high-quality condoms for both HIV prevention and family planning. Early successes with the ABC approach are giving way to alarming trends, including a rise in HIV prevalence. © J A K E L Y E L L TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 7 Uganda: HIV Situation HIV PREVALENCE AMONG ADULTS IS APPROXIMATELY 7%28 RISKY SEXUAL BEHAVIOR REMAINS COMMON (TRANSACTIONAL SEX, MULTIPLE PARTNERSHIPS, CASUAL PARTNERSHIPS)22-27 NEED FOR CONSISTENT SUPPLY OF HIGH QUALITY CONDOMS RATES ARE HIGHER AMONG KEY POPULATIONS AT RISK22: RATES ARE HIGHER AMONG WOMEN THAN MEN28: 8% 6% Sex workers 33% Partners of sex workers 18% Men who have sex with men 14% Boda boda riders 7% TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 8 PUBLIC SECTOR The Ugandan Ministry of Health is responsible for procuring condoms for free distribution. After being imported into the country, condoms are taken to the National Drug Authority (NDA) to be quality tested and are then sent to National Medical Stores (NMS), an autonomous government institution that manages the country’s drug supply. NMS supplies condoms regularly to the country's small- and medium-size health centers, and on an as-needed basis to large health centers and hospitals. Since 2011, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has partnered with non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and the Uganda Health Marketing Group (UHMG) to provide free condoms through an alternative distribution channel to private clinics as well as to non- medical outlets.PACE Uganda, a social marketing organization affiliated with PSI, also distributes many public sector condoms on behalf of the government. The country’s Condom Coordination Unit (CoCU), funded by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC), is responsible for coordinating all stakeholders engaged in condom demand and supply, but the CoCU is severely under-resourced. Other major donors for condoms include UNFPA and the U.K.'s Department for International Development (DFID) Finally, the Securing Ugandan’s Rights for Essential Medicine (SURE) project, funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), also supports the MOH to strengthen the country’s supply chain for all health products, including condoms. Public sector condoms are packaged in unbranded foil and are not supported by any marketing or promotion. Field research on demand for branded public sector condoms has prompted the MOH to partner with Marie Stopes Uganda (MSU) to create a branded free condom. The Ugandan Ministry of Health procures condoms for free distribution Free condoms are distributed to consumers through health facilities and through an alternative distribution network USAID, UNFPA, DFID and CDC are major donors for condoms in Uganda UGANDA ECONOMIC INDICATORS 29 ■ Development category: developing ■ Income level: low income ■ GDP: $19.88 billion (USD) ■ Population: 36.35 million TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 9 The three social marketing organizations in Uganda are MSU (Lifeguard), PACE (Trust), and UHMG (Protector) There is no coordination between social marketing organizations Socially marketed condoms are widely available throughout the country SOCIAL MARKETING SECTOR Socially marketed condoms are available in many different sites, including shops, pharmacies, private clinics, petrol stations, bars and taverns, hotels, and through mobile vendors. Three social marketing organizations have a presence in Uganda: MSU, PACE and UHMG. Lifeguard, the condom brand distributed by MSU, has had a presence in Uganda’s condom market since 1997. Between 2006 and 2011, Lifeguard consistently had the highest number of condom sales and was available in most retail outlets. MSU distributes Lifeguard through several large distributors located in major towns, employing a cost neutral approach. Lifeguard is marketed as a reliable and trustworthy brand, and is popular among consumers. It is also the most expensive socially marketed brand on the market, and is positioned for professionals and skilled manual workers. Trust condoms, distributed and marketed by PACE, have been on the market since 2006. PACE recruits wholesalers in each major town, who then distribute to retailers in the area. These “key accounts” are attached to a regional sales representative who resides in the area and oversees sales. PACE currently works with 125 wholesalers. Trust is a mid-range condom that uses the marketing slogan, “Protection you can trust." Protector condoms have had a market presence since 1991. UHMG, funded by USAID, has distributed Protector since 2006. Availability of a large inventory and funding for distribution allows UHMG to send small teams across the country to distribute directly to retailers, in addition to large sales to pharmacies and supermarkets. This approach, in addition to the lower price of Protector, makes the brand more available in hard-to-reach areas. Protector is positioned as an affordable but reliable brand and is targeted at semi-skilled and manual workers, the same target audiences as Trust. TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 10 PUBLIC SECTOR 70% BRAND NAME: Unbranded PRICE PER CONDOM: Free POSITIONING: None TARGET AUDIENCE: None PLACES AVAILABLE: Public hospitals and health facilities, non-medical outlets including public toilets and hotels, private clinics COMMERCIAL SECTOR Although commercial data are lacking, we estimate that Uganda’s commercial sector accounts for less than 2% of the total market. Commercial sector brands are found mainly in Kampala in high-end outlets or pharmacies. At least four companies import and distribute condoms, but it is difficult to know the specific volumes. While 16 commercial brands have been identified in the market, only a few brands have had a long-lasting market presence. Commercial brands that are consistently found on the market, including Durex, Rough Rider, Lifestyles, and O, the premium cost-recovery brand launched by UHMG in 2008 , typically target wealthy individuals. Marketing for most commercial brands is focused on enhancing sexual pleasure. ● SOCIAL MARKETING 28% BRAND NAME: Trust, Protector, Lifeguard PRICE PER CONDOM: Trust: USh 333 ($0.13); Protector: USh 100 ($0.04); Lifeguard: USh 500 ($0.20) POSITIONING: Trust: reliable, trustworthy protection; Protector: affordable, reliable; Lifeguard: reliable, trustworthry protection TARGET AUDIENCE: Trust: semi-skilled and manual workers; Protector: semi- skilled and manual workers; Lifeguard: professional and skilled workers PLACES AVAILABLE: Shops, pharmacies, private clinics, petrol stations, bars and taverns, hotels, and mobile vendors COMMERCIAL SECTOR < 2% BRAND NAMES: Durex, Rough Rider, Lifestyles, O, Power Play, Endurance, Wet-n-Wild, Moods, Play Safe, Romance, Skyn, Erotic, Hot PRICE PER CONDOM: USh 1,000 to 3,333 ($0.40 to $0.65) POSITIONING: Enhance the sexual experience, durability TARGET AUDIENCE: Wealthy individuals PLACES AVAILABLE: Pharmacies, specialty shops, and high-end supermarkets MARKET MAP (2012) The commercial sector accounts for less than 2% of the total market Commercial brands are available in pharmacies specialty shops, and high-end supermarkets Durex, Rough Rider, and Lifestyles and O are among the most popular commercial brands S T E P H A N IE O 'C O N N O R TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 11 Results UNIVERSE OF NEED* In 2011, approximately 124 million condoms were needed to cover all risky sex acts in Uganda, about 19.6 million more than were needed in 2006. This number is expected to rise as the population continues to increase. In 2006 and 2007, total distribution of male condoms met the universe of need for HIV prevention. Since 2008, however, the universe of need has exceeded total distribution. For example, in 2011, total distribution met only 80.1% of the universe of need for HIV prevention. The universe of need for family planning increased from 45.2 million in 2006 to 57.8 million in 2011. Sources: UNAIDS Investment Framework Study Group3; UN Population Division, 2010 revision4; Uganda DHS 20115; USAID conversion factors2; Guttmacher Institute. (2011). Adding it up: The costs and benefits of investing in family planning and maternal and newborn health (estimation methodology).6 * Total universe of need for condoms could be as low as the number needed for HIV prevention or as high as the sum of the universe of need for HIV prevention and family planning. Most likely, total need falls somewhere between these two figures. A lack of data on dual protection prevents our ability to estimate the total number of condoms needed per year for both HIV prevention and family planning. UNIVERSE OF NEED & TOTAL CONDOMS DISTRIBUTED In Uganda’s current market, the number of condoms needed to protect all sexual acts from HIV and unplanned pregnancy is higher than the actual number of condoms on the market. 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 UN IVERSE OF NEED – H IV PREVENTION UN IVERSE OF NEED – FAM I LY PLANN ING TOTAL D ISTR IBUTION M IL LI ON S OF C ON DO M S TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 12 CONDOM USE Between 2006 and 2011, the percentage of males and females using condoms in Uganda increased slightly but remained relatively low. In 2011, 19% of males and 12% of females reported using a condom the last time they had sex, compared to only 17% of males and 8% of females five years prior.7,8 While rates of use were much higher among unmarried youth (63% of males and 54% of females in 2011), they were still too low to adequately protect young people from both HIV and unplanned pregnancy. 7,8 Condom use among Ugandans with two or more partners in the prior year increased for females but decreased slightly for males.7,8 For people who had sex with a casual partner in the previous year, condom use increased for males but decreased for females. Likewise, condom use during paid sex has increased since 2006, but remains low: just over half of men reported using a condom the last time they paid for sex.7,8 Sources: DHS 20067, DHS 20118 Sources: DHS 20067, DHS 20118 PERCENTAGE OF RESPONDENTS WHO USED A CONDOM AT LAST SEX Percentage of respondents with casual partners in the last year who reported condom use at last sex The percentage of males and females using condoms in Uganda increased from 2006 to 2011 but remains too low to prevent all new HIV infections. 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2006 17.2 2011 FEMALES AGED 15–49MALES AGED 15–49 UNMARRIED MALES AGED 15–24 UNMARRIED FEMALES AGED 15–24 PE RC EN TA GE 55.9 7.9 39.3 19.1 62.7 12.1 53.6 58.2% 35.7% 2011 59.2% 34.9% 2006 Uganda’s condom market is dominated by the public sector. TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 13 MARKET VOLUME The total market volume for all sectors decreased from 107.9 million condoms in 2006 to 99.6 million in 2011.9-13 The Ugandan condom market is dominated by the public sector. From 2006 to 2011, free condoms accounted for 50% to 70% of the volume.9-13 Sales of socially marketed condoms increased from 2006 to 2008 but have been decreasing steadily. In 2011, condom sales were 10 million less than they were in 2006.10,12,13 In the social marketing sector, MSU’s Lifeguard condom accounted for the largest share in four out of the five years analyzed.12 Sales of Protector condoms accounted for 29% to 53% of the social marketing sector, with the exception of 2006 and 2011.13 Trust had the smallest share of the social marketing sector, although sales more than doubled since 2006.10 The commercial market share changed very little between 2006 and 2011. Although data are lacking, we estimate it to be approximately 2% of the total condom market.9,10 Sources: PSI9, PACE10, Ministry of Health11, Marie Stopes Uganda12, Uganda Health Marketing Group13 DISTRIBUTION BY SECTOR 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 M IL LI ON S OF C ON DO M S SOCIAL MARKETING COMMERCIAL SECTOR PUBLIC SECTOR 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 14 MARKET VALUE Prices for socially marketed brands have increased over the years to keep up with inflation and account for the increasing costs of goods. Between 2006 and 2011, the price of Lifeguard doubled, and the price of Trust increased five times.14,16 The price of Protector increased in 2008, but has not increased since.17 The total market value of socially marketed condoms in 2011 was approximately $3.9 million. Prices for commercial sector brands varied widely, ranging from 1,000 to 3,333 Ugandan shillings (between $0.40 and $0.65) per condom.15 Total market value for the social marketing and commercial sectors was estimated at $4,037,245 in 2011, an increase of 17% compared to 2006. COST TO CONSUMER PER CONDOM (UGX AND USD) AVERAGE CONSUMER PRICE MARKET VOLUME MARKET VALUE Consistent price increases for socially marketed condoms have helped to increase total market value. FREE PROTECTOR TRUST LIFEGUARD CONDOM O COMM. BRANDS INFLATION30 2006 0 USh 67.00 $0.04 USh 66.67 $0.04 USh 166.67 $0.09 - - 2007 0 USh 67.00 $0.04 USh 100.00 $0.06 USh 166.67 $0.10 - - 6.1% 2008 0 USh 100.00 $0.06 USh 166.67 $0.10 USh 166.67 $0.10 USh 300.00 $0.17 - 12.1% 2009 0 USh 100.00 $0.05 USh 166.67 $0.08 USh 333.33 $0.16 USh 300.00 $0.15 - 13.0% 2010 0 USh 100.00 $0.05 USh 233.33 $0.11 USh 500.00 $0.23 USh 300.00 $0.14 - 4.0% 2011 0 USh 100.00 $0.04 USh 333.33 $0.13 USh 500.00 $0.20 USh 300.00 $0.12 USh 1,000-3,333 $0.40 - $0.65 18.7% Sources: PACE14, Marie Stopes Uganda16, Uganda Health Marketing Group17 TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 15 SUBSIDY In 2011, the total cost of goods sold (COGS) for Trust condoms was estimated at $222,001.18 Assuming the same average unit COGS of $0.04 for the other two social marketing brands, total subsidy for all socially marketed condoms was $824,305. The average COGS for fully subsidized condoms in 2011 was $0.03 per condom, resulting in a total subsidy of $2,100,000. When added together, this gives a total subsidy figure of $2,924,305 for 2011. This figure takes into account only the cost of the raw good, packaging, and shipping. Operating and support costs, as well as marketing costs, are not included in the COGS calculation, which means that the value of subsidies would actually be much higher. Because the market share of the public sector has grown, and because there are more subsidized condoms on the market, we believe that subsidy has increased substantially since 2006. NUMBER OF BRANDS At least 19 condom brands were available on the market in 2011, including three socially marketed brands.15 Because data on commercial brands is limited, it is unknown how many commercial brands have had a long-term market presence in Uganda. Trend data on the number of brands are unavailable. MARKET VOLUME AVERAGE COGS MARKET VOLUME AVERAGE CONSUMER PRICE SUBSIDY 98% of condoms fully or partially subsidizied $2,924,305 USh 7.6 billion Total value of subsidies, excluding marketing, operating and support costs 2% commercial sector condoms S T E P H A N IE O ’C O N N O R ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● at least 19 different brands of condoms on the market TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 16 EQUITY Condom use was disproportionately concentrated in the wealthiest quintile. In 2011, only 18.1% of female condom users and 23.2% of male condom users belonged to the bottom two quintiles.8 Equity was slightly better in 2006, when 19.3% of females 24.3% of males fell within the bottom two quintiles.7 There was greater inequality among females than among males.7,8 ● 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 QUINTILE 1 QU INTILE 2 QU INTILE 3 WEALTH QUINTILE 4 QU INTILE 5 FEMALES 2006 MALES 2006 FEMALES 2011 MALES 2011 PE RC EN TA GE Condom use is disproportionately concentrated in the wealthiest quintile. JE N N IF E R O R K IS , C O U R T E S Y O F P H O T O S H A R E Sources: DHS 20067 and DHS 20118 CONDOM USERS BY WEALTH QUINTILE23% of males reporting condom use at last sex belonged to the poorest two quintiles in 2011. Equity did not improve from 2006 to 2011. 18% of females reporting condom use at last sex belonged to the poorest two quintiles in 2011. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 17 Challenges and Opportunities I n the last five years, limited progress has been made toward meeting the need for male condoms and ensuring market equity and sustainability in Uganda. Inefficiencies in the distribution mechanism in the public and social marketing sectors may be harmful for the total market. Distribution issues result in shortages of condoms at the district level and may contribute to inequity by limiting access to condoms by hard-to-reach populations. Delays in post-shipment testing also prevent condoms from reaching consumers. Limited profit margins for traders and low demand for condoms among consumers contribute to the slow movement of condoms through the distribution pipeline. There is a lack of funding for direct distribution and selling condoms to rural kiosks yields a negligible profit. As a result, wholesalers focus on high volume markets in urban areas, and rural areas may be underserved. The presence of three social marketing organizations in Uganda with three different condom brands fills price gaps in the market. Each brand occupies its own price category, ranging from 300 to 1500 Ugandan shillings for a package of three condoms. However, there has been little- to-no commercial sector growth, and the social marketing sector is likely crowding it out; the market continues to be dominated by subsidized products. While there are a number of commercial brands on the market, they have had a negligible share and the availability of certain brands has been inconsistent over time. In addition to the market dynamics presented in this report, there are other factors that influence the condom market in Uganda. Many politicians and religious leaders continue to oppose the use of condoms, an attitude strengthened by pro-abstinence donors in the last decade. These attitudes have resulted in reduced funding for condom promotion and commodities, in addition to discouraging the use of male condoms. Finally, poor procurement and distribution planning negatively affect the condom market. National projections and forecasting for condom procurement is disorganized partially due to decentralized health services, which causes disjointed planning. This further exacerbates inefficiencies in the system. ● GAPS AND BARRIERS ■ Informed demand for condoms remains too low to prevent all new HIV infections ■ Shortages of condoms exist at the district level ■ There is insufficient information about distribution at the district level ■ Government support for condoms is weak ■ Post-shipment testing causes further delays in distribution TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 18 Recommendations Our research yielded the following recommendations for policymakers, donors, and other stakeholders. Recommendations come from a TMA perspective and are intended to support the three sectors – public, socially marketed, and private – to work together to grow and sustain Uganda’s condom market. INCREASING INFORMED DEMAND Many Ugandans, even those with casual or multiple partners or who pay for sex, do not use condoms. In 2012, UNFPA and UHMG launched a communication campaign promoting condom use for dual protection. Additional condom promotion and behavior change communication that promote both generic and branded condoms is critical. Communications that target key populations are also necessary. Research is needed to inform targeted campaigns and communications. EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION Free and subsidized condom programs should be more effective at targeting those most in need and with an inability to pay. Currently, condom use in Uganda remains concentrated within the wealthiest quintile. Effective targeting and a stable supply of free condoms could improve equity by helping ensure that subsidies are reaching the poor. Stakeholders should work together to improve access to condoms and increase informed demand among hard-to-reach populations and key populations at risk. IMPROVING COORDINATION BETWEEN KEY STAKEHOLDERS Steps have already been made to improve collaboration between key stakeholders. Since 2011, the Ugandan Ministry of Health has collaborated with UHMG and NMS to improve distribution of free condoms to the private sector. Additional collaboration with other stakeholders, including the two other social marketing organizations, will also improve market efficiency, and ensure that subsidized products are not wasted. Information sharing between all stakeholders should be a standard practice. This would help all market shareholders make more informed decisions about condom procurement, targeting, and distribution. PRICING Prices for socially marketed condoms should be set high enough to improve sustainability and encourage competition from the commercial sector, as well as keep up with inflation. UHMG has begun to make progress towards sustainability with the cost-recoverable brand Condom O. The social marketing sector should ensure that low prices are not "crowding out" commercial brands. If commercial brands are unable to compete in the market, condom users will remain dependent on donor subsidies. MAPPING AND REPORTING Improved mapping and reporting systems are required for forecasting how many condoms are needed on the market. Mapping of condom users and condom availability at the district level would permit better targeting of male condoms and help improve access. Consistent reporting would facilitate efficient and effective decisions by all stakeholders. A common data repository might be one way for sectors to work together to share select information that would benefit the total market. ● TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 19 Acronym Key ABC Abstinence, Be Faithful, Condom use CDC United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention CoCU Condom Coordination Unit COGS Cost of goods sold DFID United Kingdom Department for International Development DHS Demographic and Health Survey MOH Ministry of Health MSU Marie Stopes Uganda NDA National Drug Authority NGOs Nongovernmental organizations NMS National Medical Stores PACE Program for Accessible Health, Communication, and Education PSI Population Services International STIs Sexually Transmitted Infections SURE Securing Ugandan's Rights for Essential Medicine TMA Total Market Approach UHMG Uganda Health Marketing Group UN United Nations UNFPA United Nations Population Fund UoN Universe of need USAID United States Agency for International Development USD United States Dollars USh Ugandan Shillings TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 20 Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge everyone who contributed to this case study, including: Ane-Kirstine Bagger – Program Analyst- HIV/AIDS, UNFPA Dorothy Balaba – RH Country Manager, PACE Peter Buyungo – Research Director, PACE Jennifer Christian – Global Social Marketing Advisor, PSI Adebayo Fayoyin – Regional Communications Advisor for South and East Africa, UNFPA Krishna Jafa – Vice President, Sexual and Reproductive Health and TB, PSI Alex Kalangwa – Procurement and Supply Management Expert, Ministry of Health Global Fund Focal Coordination Office Augustine Kamegero – National Sales and Marketing Manager, Marie Stopes Uganda Vastha Kibirige – Coordinator ABC/Condom Desk, AIDS Control Program, Ministry of Health Uganda Ben Light – Senior Technical Advisor, UNFPA Julius Lukwago – Sales and Marketing Director, PACE Goretti Masadde – Deputy Sales and Marketing Director, PACE Seru Morris – Principal Pharmacist, Ministry of Health Uganda Rita Mwagale – Communications Coordinator, UHMG Christine Namayanja – Director, Private Sector Partnerships, Marie Stopes Uganda Ismail Ndifuna – Senior National Program Officer- Reproductive Health, UNFPA Moses Odongo – Logistics Manager, PACE Maria Sese Paul – Graphic Designer, Streetsense Elena Pirondini – Special Assistant to the Deputy Executive Director, UNFPA Amy Ratcliffe – Senior Technical Advisor, Metrics, PSI Meghan Reidy – Technical Advisor, Metrics, PSI Tony Sempala – Sales and Marketing Manager, PACE Henry Semwanga – Deputy Executive Director, PACE John Stover – President, Futures Institute Kanyanta Sunkutu – Programme Specialist, HIV/ AIDS, UNFPA Renata Tallarico – Project Coordinator, UNFPA Jagdish Upadhyay – Chief, Commodity Management, UNFPA David Walker – Director, Global Social Marketing, PSI Jennifer Wanyana– TMA Advocacy Team Leader, PACE Josiane Yaguibou – Technical Advisor, Reproductive Health and Commodities Security, UNFPA TOTAL MARKET APPROACH CASE STUDY | UGANDA 21 REFERENCES 1. 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E M IL Y C A R T E R UNFPA HEADQUARTERS 605 Third Avenue New York, New York 10158 USA Telephone: + 1-212-297-5000 Fax: + 1-212-370-0201 Website: www.unfpa.org UNFPA UGANDA Plot 12A Baskerville Avenue Kololo, Kampala Uganda Telephone: +256-4177-44500 Fax: +256-414-236645 Website: uganda.unfpa.org PSI HEADQUARTERS 1120 19th Street, Suite 600, NW Washington, DC 20036 USA Telephone: +1-202-785-0072 Fax: +1-202-785-0120 Website: www.psi.org PACE Plot 2 Ibis Vale Kololo, Kampala Uganda Telephone: + 256-31-351-100 Fax: + 256-41-258-678 Website: www.pace.org.ug

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