Egypt's Population Program: Assessing 25 Years of Family Planning

Publication date: 2006

Egypt’s Population Program: Assessing 25 Years of Family Planning Scott Moreland Egypt’s demographic transition started in the 60’s Chart3 45.7 34 44 34.4 44.1 37.7 44.6 29.9 46.1 30.4 48.7 22.1 46.6 19.3 45.4 14.7 38.2 16.4 39 12.8 37.5 10 39.8 9.4 32.5 7.5 31 7.6 29.2 7.4 28.7 7.4 28.9 6.7 27.7 7 27.6 6.2 27.5 6.5 27.5 6.5 27 6.4 27.4 6.3 26.7 6.3 26.28 6.37 26.12 6.48 25.8 6.4 CBR CDR Demographic Transition in Egypt 1900-2004 TFR & growth rate TFR - DHS TFR - Robinson and Zanaty Growth rate Total fertility rate 1977 2.685 1976 5.6 1978 - 1977 5.51 1979 5.28 - 1978 5.42 1980 5.26 3.176 1979 5.34 1981 - 1980 5.28 1982 - 1981 5.17 1983 4.85 - 1982 5.05 1984 - 1983 4.94 1985 - 1984 4.82 1986 4.4 2.313 1985 4.71 1987 2.307 1986 4.61 1988 4.5 4.69 2.281 1987 4.51 1989 2.252 1988 4.4 1990 3.93 2.855 1989 4.3 1991 2.186 1990 4.2 1992 3.9 3.93 2.113 1991 4.1 1993 2.133 1992 3.9 1994 3.73 2.124 1993 3.8 1995 3.6 3.59 2.15 1994 3.7 1996 2.172 1995 3.6 1997 2.198 1996 3.58 1998 2.194 1997 3.56 1999 2.093 1998 3.54 2000 3.5 3.5 1.994 1999 3.52 2001 1.965 2000 3.5 2002 1.922 2001 3.4 2003 1.878 2002 3.3 2004 1.832 2003 3.2 2004 3.15 2005 3.1 Sorce: Various DH Reports Rachel Sanders: BUCEN Rachel Sanders: DHS TFR 15-49 Rachel Sanders: Robinson and Zanaty p. 101 and table 6.2 MMR Trends in Maternal Mortality in Egypt Year MMR per 100.000 birth alive Source 1980 -1987 320 UNDP. 1990. Human Development Report 1988 300 UNDP. 1994. Human Development Report 1992-1993 174 Ministry of Health, Child Survival Project (1994). " National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 1992-1993 2000 84.0 Ministry of Health and Population. 2001. "National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 2000" 2002 68.9 INP and UNDP. 2004. Egypt-Human Development Report Interpolated Values 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 330 327.5 325 322.5 320 317.5 315 312.5 310 307.5 305 302.5 300 268.5 237 205.5 174 162.75 151.5 140.25 129 117.75 106.5 95.25 84 76.45 68.9 54.0845454545 43.3054545455 32.5263636364 21.7472727273 Method Mix Trends in Current Use of Family Planning percent distribution of currently married women by the family planing method currently used, Egypt 1980-2003 Method 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Any method 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.6 47.1 47.9 54.5 51.8 56.1 60 Any modern method 22.8 28.7 35.4 44.3 44.8 45.5 51.8 49.5 53.9 56.6 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 CPR 24.2 30.3 37.8 43.4 47.1 47.8 54.6 51.7 56.1 60.1 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 periodic abstinence 0.5 0.6 0.6 U 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 withdrawal 0.4 0.3 0.5 U 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 prolonged breastfeeding U 0.6 1.1 U 0.9 1 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.1 other 0.3 0.1 0.2 U 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Not using 75.8 69.7 62.2 62.2 52.9 52.1 45.5 48.2 43.9 40 Total percent 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Number of women 8012 9158 8221 8406 9153 13710 5157 5971 14382 8445 Annual change 1.53 1.87 3.27 -0.25 0.27 3.30 -2.70 2.15 3.90 Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. U: Information on the method was not collected or reported. NFS National Fertility Survey EFS Egyptian Fertility Survey ECPS Egyptian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey EDHS Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey EMCHS Egyptian Maternal and Child Health Survey EIDHS Egyptian Interium Demographic and Health Survey age structure 1960 both sexes Male Female Total, all ages 25,984,101 13,068,012 12,916,089 0 752,563 383,360 369,203 1 to 4 3,379,558 1,728,100 1,651,458 5 to 9 3,799,003 1,971,927 1,827,076 10 to 14 3,178,624 1,651,421 1,527,203 15-19 2,154,435 1,114,149 1,040,286 20-24 1,795,348 921,120 874,228 25-29 1,914,075 859,806 1,054,269 30-34 1,650,968 806,857 844,111 35-39 1,726,625 847,447 879,178 40-44 1,274,877 660,666 614,211 45-49 1,144,308 567,163 577,145 50-54 997,373 493,799 503,574 55-59 638,311 322,936 315,375 60-64 674,661 320,796 353,865 65-69 333,361 163,876 169,485 70-74 301,292 133,531 167,761 75+ 268,018 120,866 147,152 Unknown 701 192 509 1966 both sexes Male Female Total, all ages 30,075,858 15,175,554 14,900,304 0- 4 4,527,000 2,292,000 2,235,000 5 to 9 4,214,000 2,200,000 2,014,000 10 to 14 3,899,000 2,034,000 1,865,000 15-19 3,008,000 1,593,000 1,415,000 20-24 2,024,000 971,000 1,053,000 25-29 2,019,000 902,000 1,117,000 30-34 1,767,000 835,000 932,000 35-39 1,873,000 941,000 932,000 40-44 1,541,000 789,000 752,000 45-49 1,284,000 683,000 601,000 50-54 1,238,000 607,000 631,000 55-59 752,000 421,000 331,000 60-64 800,000 379,000 421,000 65-69 438,000 228,000 210,000 70+ 692,000 301,000 391,000 1976 Both sexes Male Female Total, all ages 38,059,042 19,488,471 18,570,571 0 1,435,415 734,840 700,575 0- 4 4,643,928 2,407,475 2,236,453 5 to 9 4,974,588 2,616,602 2,357,986 10 to 14 4,726,469 2,496,581 2,229,888 15-19 4,024,887 2,112,726 1,912,161 20-24 3,236,555 1,639,229 1,597,326 25-29 2,666,465 1,310,281 1,356,184 30-34 2,267,060 1,113,142 1,153,918 35-39 2,046,395 1,013,002 1,033,393 40-44 1,851,573 928,384 923,189 45-49 1,612,500 814,570 797,930 50-54 1,346,599 682,555 664,044 55-59 1,063,261 544,838 518,423 60-64 843,112 430,875 412,237 65-69 612,323 307,268 305,055 70-74 343,717 167,466 176,251 75-79 231,956 104,577 127,379 80+ 132,239 64,060 68,179 1986 Both sexes Male Female Total, all ages 48,254,238 24,709,274 23,544,964 0- 4 7,362,181 3,753,848 3,608,333 5 to 9 6,341,086 3,270,658 3,070,428 10 to 14 5,577,920 2,930,638 2,647,282 15-19 5,063,632 2,692,898 2,370,734 20-24 4,247,541 2,222,672 2,024,869 25-29 3,697,508 1,788,443 1,909,065 30-34 3,045,324 1,514,610 1,530,714 35-39 2,925,306 1,491,751 1,433,555 40-44 2,127,952 1,054,937 1,073,015 45-49 1,915,240 972,484 942,756 50-54 1,695,676 796,138 899,538 55-59 1,252,294 673,137 579,157 60-64 1,131,213 554,010 577,203 65-69 682,491 352,264 330,227 70-74 530,116 293,308 236,808 75+ 385,917 195,037 190,880 Unknown 272,841 152,441 120,400 1996 Both sexes Male Female Total, all ages 59,312,914 30,351,390 28,961,524 0- 4 6,855,242 3,511,776 3,343,466 5 to 9 7,626,252 3,939,121 3,687,131 10 to 14 7,864,002 4,076,601 3,787,401 15-19 6,901,611 3,602,857 3,298,754 20-24 5,075,136 2,642,620 2,432,516 25-29 4,370,522 2,105,063 2,265,459 30-34 3,979,720 1,993,212 1,986,508 35-39 3,860,105 1,914,367 1,945,738 40-44 3,173,226 1,616,449 1,556,777 45-49 2,696,169 1,408,498 1,287,671 50-54 2,022,136 994,936 1,027,200 55-59 1,476,673 776,537 700,136 60-64 1,398,994 706,189 692,805 65-69 930,576 507,085 423,491 70-74 617,669 315,767 301,902 75+ 464,858 240,302 224,556 Unknown 23 10 13 Rachel Sanders: BUCEN Enumerated and Adjusted Census Population by Age, Sex, Urban/Rural residency Regional impacts Table 6.2 Total Fertility Rate by Region and Residence, 1960-2000 1960 1975 1980 1988 1992 1995 2000 Urban Governorates 5.92 3.89 3.84 3.27 2.96 2.82 2.9 Lower Egypt Rural 7.51 5.99 6 5.26 4.1 3.43 3.3 Urban 7.04 5.01 4.28 3.98 2.8 2.64 3.1 Upper Egypt Rural 7.82 6.81 6.31 6.44 5.97 5.08 4.7 Urban 7.43 5.56 5.87 4.4 3.58 3.75 3.4 Total 7.09 5.52 5.26 4.69 3.93 3.59 3.5 Source: Fatma H. El-Zanaty and Ann Way, Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey, 2003 ( Cairo: National Population Council; Calverton, Md.: ORC Macro, 2004). Table 2.2, 16. FP Finance Donors $1,000 Pre-76 76-82 83-88 69-94 95-98 Total 1976-1998 UNFPA 8000 16000 7500 11311 8000 50811 42811 World Bank 5000 25000 12000 42000 37000 IPPF 666 26 290 100 1082 416 UK 8000 8000 8000 USAID 67000 63857 84684 90000 305541 305541 $305,541,000 GTZ 807 5300 2000 8107 8107 Others 16000 232 100 242 2000 18574 2574 Total 29666 117039 76783 98527 112100 434115 404449 Robinson& Zanaty, Table 6.6 404.449 2022.245 Millions LE at current exchg rate Egypt FP Costs Studies Data: LE Dollars Fiscal Year Sposoring agencies GOE Donor agnecies Client Payments Grand Total Exchange Rate Sposoring agencies GOE Donor agnecies Client Payments Grand Total Sposoring agencies GOE Donor agnecies Client Payments Grand Total 1988/1989 243,045 20,873,347 19,914,857 3,679,611 44,710,860 2.39 101,629 8728173.572021306 8327381.735089418 1538626.4352103611 18,695,811 0.54% 46.69% 44.54% 8.23% 1 1989/1990 456,475 22,296,679 31,198,496 6,448,728 60,400,378 2.61 174,898 8542936.008381978 11953652.599374153 2470819.5619383985 23,142,306 0.76% 36.91% 51.65% 10.68% 100% 1990/1991 1,499,080 24,463,323 39,282,950 7,059,875 72,305,228 2.99 501,097 8177354.038925835 13131110.186601453 2359904.1448932155 24,169,466 2.07% 33.83% 54.33% 9.76% 100% 1991/1992 1,368,559 29,566,150 39,218,511 9,216,419 79,369,639 3.32 412,218 8905501.633684596 11812850.634295547 2776040.65667061 23,906,611 1.72% 37.25% 49.41% 11.61% 100% 1992/1993 2,044,416 24,848,395 35,393,209 9,947,464 72,233,484 3.35 609,861 7412418.044777198 10557996.24298353 2967385.2839739374 21,547,661 2.83% 34.40% 49.00% 13.77% 100% 1993/1994 1,707,683 29,409,294 26,942,872 8,505,452 66,565,301 3.38 505,561 8706641.920103472 7976455.97351579 2518044.973559308 19,706,704 2.57% 44.18% 40.48% 12.78% 100% 1994/1995 1,229,779 52,666,486 34,390,242 7,324,477 95,610,984 3.39 362,682 15532208.896786137 10142245.350392815 2160108.172466745 28,197,244 1.29% 55.08% 35.97% 7.66% 100% 1995/1996 1,117,568 45,445,310 41,734,131 9,546,471 97,843,480 3.39 329,457 13397205.509521825 12303155.810100218 2814284.5516443904 28,844,103 1.14% 46.45% 42.65% 9.76% 100% 1996/1997 1,130,566 57,993,888 52,323,778 8,596,190 120,044,422 3.39 333,574 17111109.520808928 15438142.307349574 2536307.766633658 35,419,133 0.94% 48.31% 43.59% 7.16% 100% 1997/1998 927,334 83,403,992 61,511,406 10,242,190 156,084,922 3.39 273,677 24614373.19173353 18153384.106988993 3022698.085730012 46,064,132 0.59% 53.44% 39.41% 6.56% 100% 1998/1999 812,504 90,892,285 53,935,055 9,092,186 154,732,030 3.39 239,677 26811883.61834532 15910045.661064884 2682060.820943952 45,643,667 0.53% 58.74% 34.86% 5.88% 100% 1999/2000 125,807 94,823,727 58,831,694 10,723,721 164,504,949 3.39 37,111 27971600.928694457 17354482.00542135 3163339.6210914454 48,526,534 0.08% 57.64% 35.76% 6.52% 100% 2000/2001 109,044 119,059,356 75,067,763 13,828,839 208,065,002 3.91 27,888 30449963.10099924 19198916.44172721 3536787.4808103335 53,213,556 0.05% 57.22% 36.08% 6.65% 100% 2001/2002 2,987 125,551,109 82,446,658 15,070,578 223,071,332 4.62 647 27175564.689248446 17845596.879899636 3262029.972170261 48,283,838 0.00% 56.28% 36.96% 6.76% 100% 2002/2003 52,842 121,756,736 67,873,356 16,562,497 206,245,430 5.35 9,877 22758268.48448136 12686608.518394647 3095793.783197487 38,550,548 0.03% 59.03% 32.91% 8.03% 100% 12,827,689 943,050,078 720,064,977 145,844,699 1,821,787,442 3,919,854 256295203.15851364 202792024.4531992 40904231.31093412 503,911,313 Estimated Financing ( Millions LE) 1976-1998 1998-2003 1976-2003 GOE 848 943 1,791 Donor 809 720 1,529 Sponsoring Agency and Client Pay 159 13 172 1,816 1,676 3,492 Sheet1 Investment Carried out in Public Utilities Sector Description total costs billion total of 15 years (1982-97) total of past 4 years (1997-2001) total of 29 years (1982-2001 Relative structure % Avg 82-01 www.sis.gov.eg/yb2001f/ehtml/table/ch1401.htm www.sis.gov.eg/yb2001f/ehtml/table/ch1401.htm Potable water 26.9 12.2 8.3 20.5 37.4 1.0789473684 sanitary drainage 40.6 19.2 12 31.2 56.9 1.6421052632 Other utilities 5.1 2.3 0.8 3.1 5.7 0.1631578947 Total 72.6 33.7 21.1 54.8 100 2.8842105263 www.sis.gov.eg/yb2001f/ehtml/table/ch1401.htm www.sis.gov.eg/yb2001f/ehtml/table/ch1401.htm Demo transition Zanaty& Robinson, Table 3.3 (1900-1996) From Spectrum Year CBR CDR Growth Rate CBR CDR 1900 45.7 34 1.1 Actual Counterfacual 1910 44 34.4 0.9 CBR Actual CDR CBR Weak FP CDR 1920 44.1 37.7 0.6 1900 45.7 34 45.7 34 1930 44.6 29.9 1.5 1910 44 34.4 44 34.4 1940 46.1 30.4 1.6 1920 44.1 37.7 44.1 37.7 1950 48.7 22.1 2.7 1930 44.6 29.9 44.6 29.9 1960 46.6 19.3 2.7 1940 46.1 30.4 46.1 30.4 1965 45.4 14.7 3.1 1950 48.7 22.1 48.7 22.1 1970 38.2 16.4 2.4 1960 46.6 19.3 46.6 19.3 1975 39 12.8 2.7 1965 45.4 14.7 45.4 14.7 1980 37.5 10 2.7 1976 40.2 13.1 40 13 1985 39.8 9.4 3 1977 39.5 12.8 40 13 1990 32.5 7.5 2.5 1978 38.9 12.6 40 13 1991 31 7.6 2.3 1979 38.4 12.2 40 12 1992 29.2 7.4 2.2 1980 37.8 11.8 39 12 1993 28.7 7.4 2 1981 37.2 11.4 39 11.6 1994 28.9 6.7 2.2 1982 36.5 11 39 11 1995 27.7 7 2.1 1983 35.9 10.6 39 11 1996 27.6 6.2 2.1 1984 35.6 10.3 39 11 1997 27.5 6.5 2 1985 34.1 9.8 39 10 1998 27.5 6.5 1986 32.6 9.4 39 10 1999 27.0 6.4 1987 32 9.1 38 10 2000 27.4 6.3 1988 31.3 8.8 38 9.2 2001 26.7 6.3 1989 30.7 8.5 37.8 8.9 2002 26.3 6.4 1990 29.8 8.3 37.3 8.6 2003 26.1 6.5 1991 29.1 8 36.9 8.3 2004 25.8 6.4 1992 28.5 7.8 36.8 8.1 1993 27.7 7.6 36.2 7.8 Data 1997-2004 CAPMAS data supplied by policy project 1994 26.9 7.4 35.7 7.6 1995 26.1 7.2 35.2 7.3 1996 24.9 7 34.2 7.1 1997 24.4 6.9 34.2 6.9 1998 24.4 6.8 34.1 6.7 1999 24.5 6.7 34.3 6.5 2000 24.5 6.5 34.3 6.3 2001 24 6.4 34.3 6.2 2002 23.6 6.3 34.3 6 2003 23.1 6.2 34.3 5.9 2004 23.3 6.1 34.2 5.7 2005 23.5 6 34.2 5.5 2006 23.6 6 34.2 5.4 Demo transition 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 CBR CDR Demographic Transition in Egypt 1900-2004 immunization DHS data % Under 2 fully immunized Percapita Subsidy Excange Rate $20 FIC Interpolated Values 1988 35 47.8 1976 -6.0809917355 1992 67.4 47.8 1977 -2.6575757576 1995 79.1 47.8 1978 0.7658402204 2000 92.2 47.8 1979 4.1892561983 2003 87.5 47.8 1980 7.6126721763 47.8 1981 11.0360881543 3.423415978 47.8 1982 14.4595041322 -6759.5289256198 47.8 1983 17.8829201102 47.8 1984 21.3063360882 47.8 1985 24.7297520661 47.8 1986 28.1531680441 47.8 1987 31.576584022 2.39 47.8 1988 35 35 2.61 52.2 1989 38.423415978 2.99 59.8 1990 41.8468319559 3.32 66.4 1991 45.2702479339 3.35 67.0 1992 67.4 67.4 3.38 67.6 1993 70.823415978 3.39 67.8 1994 74.2468319559 3.39 67.8 1995 79.1 79.1 3.39 67.8 1996 82.523415978 3.39 67.8 1997 85.9468319559 3.39 67.8 1998 89.3702479339 3.39 67.8 1999 92.7936639118 3.91 78.2 2000 92.2 92.2 4.62 92.4 2001 95.623415978 5.35 107.0 2002 99.0468319559 107.0 2003 102.4702479339 107.0 2004 105.8936639118 107.0 2005 109.3170798898 107.0 2006 112.7404958678 immunization 35 67.4 79.1 92.2 87.5 Prox Determinants 7.6126721763 11.0360881543 14.4595041322 17.8829201102 21.3063360882 24.7297520661 28.1531680441 31.576584022 35 35 38.423415978 41.8468319559 45.2702479339 67.4 67.4 70.823415978 74.2468319559 79.1 79.1 82.523415978 85.9468319559 89.3702479339 92.7936639118 92.2 92.2 TFR-CPR Demographic History and Trends Trends in proximate determinant of Cc, Cm, Ci Region Cc: index of contraceptive effect Cm: index of marriage delay Ci: index of postparum infecundability 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 Total 0.75 0.60 0.51 0.65 0.60 0.58 0.74 0.72 0.75 Urban Gov. 0.54 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.47 0.80 0.81 0.81 Lower Urban 0.53 0.43 0.37 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.80 0.81 0.82 Lower Rural 0.81 0.63 0.47 0.68 0.65 0.60 0.71 0.71 0.76 Upper Urban 0.74 0.57 0.50 0.69 0.55 0.53 0.75 0.74 0.78 Upper Rural 0.95 0.88 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.66 0.71 Source: Warren C. Robinson and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. child survival TFR CPR 1976 5.6 18.4034763948 18.2 1980 5.3 24.2 1984 4.9 30.3 1.525 1988 4.4 37.8 3.75 1992 4.1 47.1 2.325 1995 3.9 47.8 2000 3.5 56.1 2003 3.2 60.1 child survival 18.8313653137 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.1 47.8 54.6 56 56.1 60.1 health IMR U5MR Stat Compiler/Ross File 1967 141 243 Any Risk TFR IMR U5MR 1972 146 238 1988 64.3 4.50 73.2 101.8 1976 124 203 1992 60.9 3.90 61.5 84.9 1977 132 191 1995 54.5 3.60 62.6 80.6 1980 108 157 2000 47.9 3.50 43.5 54.3 1981 120 167 2003 41 3.20 44.7 55.1 1983 97 139 1985 97 130 1986 73 102 1988 82 110 1990 62 85 1991 58 75 1993 63 81 1996 52 65 1998 44 54 2001 38 46 2003 EIDHS 2003,Table 7.2 Interpolated Values based on Various EDHS values; some outliers were dopped; values after 2001 are forecast based on trend 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 IMR 124 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120 108.5 97 97 97 92 87 82 72 62 58 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52 48 44 42 40 38 36.75 35.5 34.25 33 U5MR 203 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167 153 139 134.5 130 123.3333333333 116.6666666667 110 97.5 85 75 73 71 69 67 65 60.5 54 51.3333333333 48.6666666667 46 44.75 43.5 42.25 41 health 141 243 146 238 124 203 132 191 108 157 120 167 97 139 97 130 73 102 82 110 62 85 58 75 63 81 52 65 44 54 38 46 IMR U5MR education Health expenditures per capita (LE) Real Health expenditures per capita ( 1990 LE) 1980/1981 81/82 82/83 83/84 84/85 85/86 86/87 87/88 88/89 89/90 90/91 17.3 17.3 91/92 17.2 14.2 92/93 18.6 13.8 93/94 19.1 13.0 94/95 23.0 14.4 95/96 27.6 16.0 96/97 30.4 16.6 97/98 38.0 20.0 98/99 48.8 24.8 99/2000 65.4 32.3 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 Rachel Sanders: Rachel Sanders: Egyptian Center for Economic Studies "social expenditure and the poor in Egypt" Ahmed Galal, p. 3 Rachel Sanders: Rachel Sanders: Egyptian Center for Economic Studies "social expenditure and the poor in Egypt" Ahmed Galal, p. 3 food subsidies Total Education expenditures (million LE) Primary school enrollment rate Secondary school enrollment rate % of central budget dedicated to education Per student expenditures (LE) Real per student expenditure (1990 LE) 1980 78% 54% 5.2% 1980/1981 1981 81/82 1982 82/83 1983 83/84 1984 84/85 1985 80% 60% 4.9% 85/86 1986 86/87 1987 87/88 1988 88/89 1989 89/90 1990 7605 90% 69% 4.1% 90/91 1991 7587 91/92 1992 92/93 1993 93/94 352.5 240.2 1994 94/95 1995 12706 95/96 471 273.6 1996 13175 96/97 552.6 302.3 1997 97/98 642.9 338.8 1998 98/99 739.6 375.5 1999 99/2000 835 412.4 2000 92% 72% 4.5% 2000/2001 2001 2001/2002 2002 2002/2003 2003 2003/2004 2004 2004/2005 SIS Website GER World Bank Ed Stats 2002, 2003 2003, 2004 Primary 7165620 7190000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2002 Prep 4268319 4288300 Primary 85.4 91.5 99.8 96.6 97.4 Gen Sec 1249706 1336600 Sec 61.4 70.8 76.5 85.3 85.3 Tech 2214152 2282800 3463858 3619400 Forecast based on WB data Primary Sec Primary Sec 1976 81.48 49.44 1985 85.4 61.4 1977 82.16 50.87 1990 91.5 70.8 1978 82.85 52.31 1995 99.8 76.5 1979 83.54 53.75 2000 96.6 85.3 1980 84.23 55.18 2002 97.4 85.3 1981 84.92 56.62 1982 85.61 58.05 1983 86.29 59.49 1984 86.98 60.93 1985 85.40 61.40 1986 88.36 63.80 1987 89.05 65.23 1988 89.74 66.67 1989 90.42 68.11 1990 91.50 70.80 1991 91.80 70.98 1992 92.49 72.41 1993 93.18 73.85 1994 93.86 75.29 1995 99.80 76.50 1996 95.24 78.16 1997 95.93 79.59 1998 96.62 81.03 1999 97.31 82.47 2000 96.60 85.30 2001 98.68 85.34 2002 97.40 85.30 2003 100.06 88.21 2004 100.75 89.65 2005 101.44 91.08 2006 102.12 92.52 Rachel Sanders: Robinson and Zanaty table 7.4 Rachel Sanders: Robinson and Zanaty table 7.4 Rachel Sanders: Robinson and Zanaty table 7.4 Rachel Sanders: UNDP Rachel Sanders: Egyptian Center for Economic Studies "social expenditure and the poor in Egypt" Ahmed Galal, p. 3 Rachel Sanders: Egyptian Center for Economic Studies "social expenditure and the poor in Egypt" Ahmed Galal, p. 3 food subsidies 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Primary Sec GER Food subsidy expenditures (LE million) Total food subsidies in real terms, LE million (LE 1986-87) Population Per capita 1976 281.4 36,620,500 7.6842205868 1977 343.2 37,625,328 9.1215151666 1978 452.4 38,642,764 11.707237091 1979 996.8 39,679,112 25.1215299375 1980/1981 1094.3 2,918.1 40,737,216 26.8624149476 81/82 1828 4,415.5 41,813,028 43.7184314898 82/83 1707 3,586.1 42,906,188 39.7844711816 83/84 2009 3,639.5 44,016,928 45.6415313672 84/85 2446 3,786.4 45,158,612 54.1646408441 85/86 1982 2,707.7 46,283,916 42.8226513936 86/87 1671 1,671.0 47,386,720 35.2630441609 87/88 1341 1,248.6 48,497,892 27.6506863432 88/89 1995 1,578.3 49,613,588 40.2107583914 89/90 1747 1,139.6 50,736,160 34.4330355313 90/91 2400 1,162.0 51,853,908 46.2838789316 91/92 2482 1,158.2 52,967,200 46.8591883279 92/93 2450 1,040.8 54,086,300 45.2979774915 93/94 2486 918.7 55,193,532 45.041509574 94/95 2492 865.6 56,289,104 44.2714455004 95/96 3098 1,059.0 57,368,432 54.0018245574 96/97 3668 1,244.0 58,412,560 62.7947140136 97/98 98/99 99/2000 2000/2001 2001/2002 2002/2003 2003/2004 2004/2005 Rachel Sanders: WB paper p. 31 "Self-Targeted Subsidies: The Distributional Impact of the Egyptian Food Subsidy System" Richard Adams, p. 30 Rachel Sanders: "Self-Targeted Subsidies: The Distributional Impact of the Egyptian Food Subsidy System" Richard Adams, p. 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Per Capita Food Subsidies Determinants of Fertility Decline Population 1976 Censuses Popupyion from 1976 Census, Egypt Age Groups Male Female 0 652089 606452 1 597109 561681 2 554853 526198 3 523837 498947 4 502577 478869 0 - 4 2830465 2672147 5 489590 464907 6 483391 456005 7 482496 451104 8 485423 449148 9 490687 449078 5-9 2431587 2270242 10 498735 451349 11 510012 456410 12 513385 455659 13 503510 445019 14 484693 427962 10 - 14 2510335 2236399 15 467206 412218 16 449739 396464 17 429936 380977 18 407893 366743 19 384582 353413 15- 19 2139356 1909815 20 360746 339514 21 336081 325176 22 314780 312462 23 298963 302203 24 287002 293614 20 -24 1597572 1572969 25 275105 285231 26 263976 277520 27 253823 269255 28 244350 259734 29 235678 249665 25-29 1272932 1341405 30 228058 240283 31 221243 231128 32 215693 223675 33 211596 218714 34 208555 215422 30- 34 1085145 1129222 35 205903 212152 36 203680 209191 37 201417 205969 38 198782 202023 39 195867 197604 35- 39 1005649 1026939 40 193131 193453 41 190529 189455 42 187308 185123 43 183154 180301 44 178340 175137 40 - 44 932462 923469 45 173473 169910 46 168445 164526 47 163307 159237 48 158147 154184 49 152929 149222 45-49 816301 797079 50 147605 144206 51 142279 139332 52 136665 133776 53 130646 127168 54 124432 119988 50 -54 681627 664470 55 118248 112967 56 111932 105816 57 106384 99798 58 102039 95572 59 98443 92501 55- 59 537046 506654 60 94755 89311 61 91203 86287 62 87128 82856 63 82136 78613 64 76571 73867 60- 64 431793 410934 65 71324 69494 66 66402 65518 Population 1976 67 61175 61107 0 - 4 2,830,465 2,672,147 68 55481 56000 5-9 2,431,587 2,270,242 69 49686 50647 10 - 14 2,510,335 2,236,399 65-69 304068 302766 15- 19 2,139,356 1,909,815 70 44475 45925 20 -24 1,597,572 1,572,969 71 39895 41857 25-29 1,272,932 1,341,405 72 35997 38466 30- 34 1,085,145 1,129,222 73 32933 35919 35- 39 1,005,649 1,026,939 74 30859 34379 40 - 44 932,462 923,469 70 -74 184159 196546 45-49 816,301 797,079 75 29930 34013 50 -54 681,627 664,470 76 30298 34985 55- 59 537,046 506,654 77 32120 37463 60- 64 431,793 410,934 78 35550 41609 65-69 304,068 302,766 79 40742 47591 70 -74 184,159 196,546 75+ 168640 195661 75+ 168,640 195,661 Total 18929137 18156717 18,929,137 18,156,717 37,085,854 Total Population Demographic History and Trends a. Population Growth Total Population (IN 000) (excpect Egyptians abroad) Year Population No. (IN 000) (Excluding Egyptians abroad) 1960 26085 1966 30076 1976 36626 37,085,854 1986 48254 49174149 1996 59313 1997* 59441 1998* 60706 1999* 61993 2000* 63305 2001* 64652 2002* 65986 2003* 67313 2004* 68648 Source:CAMPAS (2002) *Estimates of population in the first of January for the period (1997-2004) IMR,U5MR IMR U5MR Stat Compiler/Ross File 1967 141 243 Any Risk TFR IMR U5MR 1972 146 238 1988 64.3 4.50 73.2 101.8 1976 124 203 1992 60.9 3.90 61.5 84.9 1977 132 191 1995 54.5 3.60 62.6 80.6 1980 108 157 2000 47.9 3.50 43.5 54.3 1981 120 167 2003 41 3.20 44.7 55.1 1983 97 139 1985 97 130 1986 73 102 1988 82 110 1990 62 85 1991 58 75 1993 63 81 1996 52 65 1998 44 54 2001 38 46 2003 EIDHS 2003,Table 7.2 Interpolated Values based on Various EDHS values; some outliers were dopped; values after 2001 are forecast based on trend 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 IMR 124 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120 108.5 97 97 97 92 87 82 72 62 58 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52 48 44 42 40 38 35.4666666667 33.0666666667 30.6666666667 28.2666666667 25.8666666667 U5MR 203 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167 153 139 134.5 130 123.3333333333 116.6666666667 110 97.5 85 75 73 71 69 67 65 60.5 54 51.3333333333 48.6666666667 46 42.2222222222 38.8333333333 35.4444444444 32.0555555556 28.6666666667 IMR,U5MR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IMR U5MR CBR & CDR Demographic History and Trends b. Fertility and Mortality Trends Year CBR CDR 1960 43.0 16.9 1986 40.0 9.5 1987 39.0 9.5 1988 38.4 8.6 1989 33.9 8.1 1990 32.5 7.6 1991 30.9 7.4 1992 27.7 7.1 1993 29.0 6.9 1994 28.6 6.8 1995 27.9 6.7 1996 28.3 6.5 1997 27.5 6.5 1998 27.5 6.5 1999 27.0 6.4 2000 27.4 6.3 2001 26.7 6.3 2002* 26.3 6.4 2003* 26.1 6.5 Source CAPMAS (2003) - Annual Statistical Year Book *CAPMAS, Population bulletin in the first of January 2003 &2004 cpr vs.tfr TFR CPR 1976 5.6 18.8313653137 1980 5.3 24.2 1984 4.9 30.3 1986 4.4 37.8 1992 4.1 47.1 1995 3.9 47.8 1997 3.6 54.6 1998 3.3 56 2000 3.5 56.1 2003 3.2 60.1 cpr vs.tfr 18.8313653137 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.1 47.8 54.6 56 56.1 60.1 TFR Demographic History and Trends Fertility and Mortality Trends TFR 1979-19801 5.3 1983-19841 4.9 1986-19882 4.4 1990- 19911 4.1 1990-19922 3.9 1993-19952 3.6 1995-19972 3.3 1996-19982 3.4 1997-20002 3.5 2000-20032 3.2 Note: 1Rates are for the 12-month period preceding the survey. 2Rates are for the 36-month period preceding the survey. Source El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. Prox Det Graph 0.75 0.65 0.74 0.6 0.6 0.72 0.51 0.58 0.75 0.5 0.6 0.74 0.43 0.57 0.77 Contraception Marriage Infecundability Trends in Fertility Factors ("Proximate Determinants") Trends in proximate determinant Demographic History and Trends Trends in proximate determinant of Cc, Cm, Ci Region Cc: index of contraceptive effect Cm: index of marriage delay Ci: index of postparum infecundability 1980 1988 1992 1995 2000 1980 1988 1992 1995 2000 1980 1988 1992 1995 2000 Total 0.75 0.60 0.51 0.50 0.43 0.65 0.60 0.58 0.60 0.57 0.74 0.72 0.75 0.74 0.77 Urban Gov. 0.54 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.47 0.80 0.81 0.81 Lower Urban 0.53 0.43 0.37 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.80 0.81 0.82 Lower Rural 0.81 0.63 0.47 0.68 0.65 0.60 0.71 0.71 0.76 Upper Urban 0.74 0.57 0.50 0.69 0.55 0.53 0.75 0.74 0.78 Upper Rural 0.95 0.88 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.66 0.71 Source: Warren C. Robinson and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. Comparison with other countries Demographic History and Trends Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) Kenya 1989 1993 1998 CPR 26.9 32.7 39.0 TFR 6.7 5.4 4.7 Jordan 1990 1997 CPR 40.0 52.6 TFR 5.6 4.4 Philippines 1993  1998 CPR 40.0 47.8 TFR 4.1 3.7 Colombia 1986  1990  1995  2000 CPR 64.8 66.1 72.2 76.9 TFR 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.6 Egypt 1988  1992  1995  2000 CPR 37.8 47.1 47.9 56.1 TFR 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5 Source: MEASURE DHS - Country Statistics, http://www.measuredhs.com/ comparison 2 Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) TFR CPR 1998 1992 1995 1995-2000 1985 1985-92 1990-95 1990-99 Egypt 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.4 33 46 47 55 Tunisia 4 3.6 3.1 2.6 41 50 60 60 Morrocco 4.8 4.5 3.4 3.1 36 42 50 59 Jordan 7.3 5.8 5.4 4.9 26 35 35 53 Iran 5.6 6.1 5 2.8 23 65 65 73 Turkey 3.5 3.6 2.6 2.5 51 63 63 64 Kenya 8.1 6.4 5.1 4.5 14 33 33 39 Indonisia 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.6 48 50 55 57 China 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.3 77 83 83 . Source: UNDP, Human Development Reports 1990,1994, 1998 and 2000 Infant Mortality Trends in Infant Mortality in Egypt, 1964-2003 Approximate reference period Approximate midpoint Survey Infant mortality 1998-2003 2001 2003 EDHS 38 1995-2000 1998 2000 EDHS 44 1993-1998 1996 2003 EDHS 52 1990-1995 1993 2000 EDHS 66 1990 -1995 1993 1995 EDHS 63 1988-1993 1991 2003 EDHS 58 1987-1992 1990 1992 EDHS 62 1985-1990 1988 2000 EDHS 74 1985-1990 1988 1995 EDHS 82 1983-1988 1986 1988 EDHS 73 1982-1987 1985 1992 EDHS 97 1980-1985 1983 2000 EDHS 98 1980-1985 1983 1995 EDHS 97 1978-1983 1981 1988 EDHS 120 1977-1982 1980 1992 EDHS 108 1974-1979 1977 1980 EFS 132 1973-1978 1976 1988 EDHS 124 1969-1974 1972 1980 EFS 146 1964-1969 1967 1980 EFS 141 Note: For the EIDHS, the field work took place principally during May. Thus, the five- year reference periods for this survey can be considered to approximately represent periods starting in May of the year in which the period terminates. For the 2000 EDH Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. High risk fertility behavior High risk fertility behavior % of children born in the five years prior to the suvery who are at elevated risk of mortality according to category of increased risk, Egypt Risk Category 1988 1992 1995 2000 2003 % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio Not in any high-risk category 39.0 1.0 25.3 1.0 28.0 1.0 32.5 1.0 Unavoidable risk category (first births, mother age 18 to 24) NA NA 26.5 1.4 Single high - risk category 39.4 1.2 37.0 1.9 33.2 1.6 28.9 1.4 Multiple high-risk category 21.6 1.9 17.5 3.3 14.7 2.4 12.1 1.9 In any avoidable high risk category 61.0 1.5 54.5 2.4 47.9 1.9 41.0 1.6 Source: DHS 1992,1995,2000 and 2003 (Tables No.10-5,9-5,10-5 and 7-5 Respectively) Maternal Mortality Trends in Maternal Mortality in Egypt Year MMR per 100.000 birth alive Source 1980 -1987 320 UNDP. 1990. Human Development Report 1988 300 UNDP. 1994. Human Development Report 1992-1993 174 Ministry of Health, Child Survival Project (1994). " National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 1992-1993 2000 84.0 Ministry of Health and Population. 2001. "National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 2000" 2002 68.9 INP and UNDP. 2004. Egypt-Human Development Report FP Clinics 3209 653 3272 670 3300 675 3330 673 3351 682 3366 709 3408 632 3542 639 3562 711 3560 658 3607 714 3632 724 3674 730 3792 731 3863 760 3926 807 4092 781 4385 759 4493 733 4599 706 4805 667 4971 659 5098 629 5235.9762528374 646.0237471626 5345.4670857342 659.5329142658 Government NGO Growth in Family Planning Clinics Clinic capacities # GOE, Private and NGO FP outlets Years GOE (MOHP+HIO+ CCO) NGO (EFPA+ Evangelical Church+ Orthodoxy Church+ CSI) Total Government NGO 1981 3209 653 3862 1982 3272 670 3942 1983 3300 675 3975 1984 3330 673 4003 1985 3351 682 4033 1986 3366 709 4075 1987 3408 632 4040 1988 3542 639 4181 1989 3562 711 4273 1990 3560 658 4218 1991 3607 714 4321 1992 3632 724 4356 1993 3674 730 4404 1994 3792 731 4523 1995 3863 760 4623 1996 3926 807 4733 1997 4092 781 4873 1998 4385 759 5144 1999 4493 733 5226 2000 4599 706 5305 2001 4805 667 5472 2002 4971 659 5630 2003 5098 629 5727 2004 5236 646 5882 2005 5345 660 6005 Source: NPC, Annual Analytical Statistical Family Planning Services Reports, Years From (1981-2003) HIO Health Insurance Organization CCO Curative Care Organization CSI Clinical Services Improvement Project EFPA Egyptian Family Planning Association CYP Chart 1106589 1297118 1459071 1809744 1908946 2075037 1946812 2904513 3375744 4439090 4193792 3713756 2954809 4441392 3467202 3742388 4003574 4214872 4629761 4993032 5134228 5118074 6192616 6553800 CYP Growth in Family Planning (Couple Years of Protection) CYPs Years CYP (years) 1981 1,106,589.00 1982 1,297,118.00 1983 1,459,071.00 1984 1,809,744.00 1985 1,908,946.00 1986 2,075,037.00 1987 1,946,812.00 1988 2,904,513.00 1989 3,375,744.00 1990 4,439,090.00 1991 4,193,792.00 1992 3,713,756.00 1993 2,954,809.00 1994 4,441,392.00 1995 3,467,202.00 1996 3,742,388.00 1997 4,003,574.00 1998 4,214,872.00 1999 4,629,761.00 2000 4,993,032.00 2001 5,134,228.00 2002 5,118,074.00 2003 6,192,616.00 2004 6,553,800.00 Source: NPC, Annual Analytical Statistical Family Planning Services Reports, Years From (1981-2003) Notes: * The following coefficients are use to calculate CYP: 1) From the period 1980 - 1984, CYP Coefficent = 1 2) From the period 1984 - 1987, CYP Coefficent = 1.6 3) From the period 1988 - 2002, CYP Coefficent = 2.5 IUD, 3.0 Norpalnt 4) From 2003 till now , CYP coefficent = 3.2 for both IUD and Norplant , Implanon = 2 * Norplant hasn't been used during (1980-1987) CPR by method Trends in Current Use of Family Planning percent distribution of currently married women by the family planing method currently used, Egypt 1980-2003 Method 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Any method 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.6 47.1 47.9 54.5 51.8 56.1 60 Any modern method 22.8 28.7 35.4 44.3 44.8 45.5 51.8 49.5 53.9 56.6 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 CPR 24.2 30.3 37.8 43.4 47.1 47.8 54.6 51.7 56.1 60.1 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 periodic abstinence 0.5 0.6 0.6 U 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 withdrawal 0.4 0.3 0.5 U 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 prolonged breastfeeding U 0.6 1.1 U 0.9 1 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.1 other 0.3 0.1 0.2 U 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Not using 75.8 69.7 62.2 62.2 52.9 52.1 45.5 48.2 43.9 40 Total percent 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Number of women 8012 9158 8221 8406 9153 13710 5157 5971 14382 8445 Annual change 1.53 1.87 3.27 -0.25 0.27 3.30 -2.70 2.15 3.90 Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. U: Information on the method was not collected or reported. NFS National Fertility Survey EFS Egyptian Fertility Survey ECPS Egyptian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey EDHS Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey EMCHS Egyptian Maternal and Child Health Survey EIDHS Egyptian Interium Demographic and Health Survey Methods Sources Sources for Modern Family Planning Methods percent distribution of current users of modern family planning methods, Egypt 1980-2003 Modern Method 1988 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EDHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Public sector 23.7 35 35.7 40.9 47.9 48.6 55.6 Private sector 74.2 63.4 62.7 58.1 51.9 51.2 43.5 Other 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.8 Don't Know 0 0.4 1.4 0.5 0 0 0.1 Total 99.9 100 100 100 100 100 100 # of Pharmacies Years Pharmacies Source 1978 1978 3880 CAPMAS. 1979. Statistical Indicators (1952-1978), Egypt 1979 1979 4500 CAPMAS. 1980. Statistical Indicators (1952-1979), Egypt 1984 1984 7042 CAPMAS. 1985. Statistical Year Book (1952-1985), Egypt 1987 1987 8962 CAPMAS. 1988. Statistical Year Book (1952-1987), Egypt 1990 1990 12070 CAPMAS. 1991. Statistical Year Book (1952-1990), Egypt 1992 1992* 13761 CAPMAS. 1993. Statistical Year Book (1952-1992), Egypt 1993 1/1/1993* 15777 CAPMAS. 1994. Statistical Year Book (1952-1993), Egypt 1994 1/1/1994* 14711 CAPMAS. 1995. Statistical Year Book (1952-1994), Egypt 1995 1/1/1995* 16249 CAPMAS. 1996. Statistical Year Book (1990-1995), Egypt 1997 1/ 7/1997* 16503 CAPMAS. 1998. Statistical Year Book (1992-1997), Egypt 1998 1/ 7/1998* 20838 CAPMAS. 1999. Statistical Year Book (1992-1998), Egypt 1999 1/ 7/1999* 19544 CAPMAS. 2000. Statistical Year Book (1993-1999), Egypt 2001 1/7/01 27160 CAPMAS. 2002. Statistical Year Book (1994-2001), Egypt 2003 1/1/03 29304 CAPMAS. 2003. Statistical Year Book (1995-2002), Egypt 2004 1/1/04 27179 CAPMAS. 2004. Statistical Year Book (1996-2003), Egypt * Estimates or Preliminary data 7.0048969072 # of Pharmacies 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pharmacies FP Costs Chart 243045 20873347 19914857 3679611 456475 22296679 31198496 6448728 1499080 24463323 39282950 7059875 1368559 29566150 39218511 9216419 2044418 24848395 35393209 9947464 1707683 29409294 26942872 8505452 1229779 52666486 34390242 7324477 1117568 45445310 41734131 9546471 1130566 57993888 52323778 8596190 927334 83403992 61511406 10242190 812504 90892285 53935055 9092186 125807 94823727 58831694 10723721 2987.05 125551108.86432782 82446657.58513632 15070578.471426606 52841.75 121756736.39197527 67873355.57341136 16562496.740106553 NGOs GOE Donor Agencies Client Payments Year Ending LE Family Planning Costs Cost of Family Planning Total Costs Of Family Palnning Agencies Fiscal year NGOs GOE Donor Agencies Client Payments Total NGOs working in FP areas GOE Donor Agencies Client Payement Total 1989 1988/1989 243,045 20,873,347 19,914,857 3,679,611 44,710,860 0.005 0.467 0.445 0.082 1.000 1990 1989/1990 456,475 22,296,679 31,198,496 6,448,728 60,400,378 0.008 0.369 0.517 0.107 1.000 1991 1990/1991 1,499,080 24,463,323 39,282,950 7,059,875 72,305,228 0.021 0.338 0.543 0.098 1.000 1992 1991/1992 1,368,559 29,566,150 39,218,511 9,216,419 79,369,639 0.017 0.373 0.494 0.116 1.000 1993 1992/1993 2,044,418 24,848,395 35,393,209 9,947,464 72,233,484 0.028 0.344 0.490 0.138 1.000 1994 1993/1994 1,707,683 29,409,294 26,942,872 8,505,452 66,565,301 0.026 0.442 0.405 0.128 1.000 1995 1994/1995 1,229,779 52,666,486 34,390,242 7,324,477 95,610,984 0.013 0.551 0.360 0.077 1.000 1996 1995/1996 1,117,568 45,445,310 41,734,131 9,546,471 97,843,480 0.011 0.464 0.427 0.098 1.000 1997 1996/1997 1,130,566 57,993,888 52,323,778 8,596,190 120,044,422 0.009 0.483 0.436 0.072 1.000 1998 1997/1998 927,334 83,403,992 61,511,406 10,242,190 156,084,922 0.006 0.534 0.394 0.066 1.000 1999 1998/1999 812,504 90,892,285 53,935,055 9,092,186 154,732,030 0.005 0.587 0.349 0.059 1.000 2000 1999/2000 125,807 94,823,727 58,831,694 10,723,721 164,504,949 0.001 0.576 0.358 0.065 1.000 2002 2001/2002 2,987 125,551,109 82,446,658 15,070,578 223,071,332 2003 2002/2003 52,842 121,756,736 67,873,356 16,562,497 206,245,430 Avg. 0.013 0.461 0.435 0.092 1.000 Source: POLICY II Project/Egypt (Forthcoming). The Trends of the Cost of Family Planning Program in Egypt Funding Donor Assistance to Egyptian Family Planning, 1976-1994 ($000) Donor Year 1976-1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 UNFPA 16.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 584 1.160 1.500 1.450 1.440 1.190 1.294 547.0 2.706 World Bank (IBRD) 25.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - IPPF - - - - - - 26 43 60 51 75 81 N.A. Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) (U.K) 8.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - USAID/C* 29.601 14.726 9.419 13.084 8.727 10.112 8.507 15.189 15.593 20.246 ** 10.468 8.599 USAID/W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.25 760 930 1.120 1.640 2.500 Federal Republic of Germany (GTZ & KFW) 807 2.500 2.500 - - - 280 390 460 460 N.A. 600 N.A. Others (Finland, Japan, Dutch) 232 - - - - - - 60 60 42 30 50 N.A. Total 79.64 19.226 13.919 15.084 9.311 11.272 10.313 18.382 18.373 22.919 15.804 13.386 13.805 Source: Robinson, C.Warren and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. * Bilateral funds only, first period of support refers to 1978-1982 ** Include expenditures for $4.1 million in contracetives actually delivered in 1992-1994 Annual Total Health Spending Public Expenditure on Health Public expenditure on health 1990 1992 1994 1996/97 1998/99 2000/2001 2001/2002 as % of total 2.8 3.3 4.4 4.5 6.9 7.2 2.9 as % of GDP 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.9 Source: UNDP and INP, Egypt HDR. 1994,1995, 1996,1997/98,2003 and2004 This transition has been due to the success of Egypt’s family planning program Demo Tras Actual Graph Demo Tras Actual Graph 45.7 34 44 34.4 44.1 37.7 44.6 29.9 46.1 30.4 48.7 22.1 46.6 19.3 45.4 14.7 40.2 13.1 39.5 12.8 38.9 12.6 38.4 12.2 37.8 11.8 37.2 11.4 36.5 11 35.9 10.6 35.6 10.3 34.1 9.8 32.6 9.4 32 9.1 31.3 8.8 30.7 8.5 29.8 8.3 29.1 8 28.5 7.8 27.7 7.6 26.9 7.4 26.1 7.2 24.9 7 24.4 6.9 24.4 6.8 24.5 6.7 24.5 6.5 24 6.4 23.6 6.3 23.1 6.2 CBR Actual CDR Demographic Transition in Egypt 1900-2003 DemoTrans 2 Scenario Graph 45.7 34 45.7 44 34.4 44 44.1 37.7 44.1 44.6 29.9 44.6 46.1 30.4 46.1 48.7 22.1 48.7 46.6 19.3 46.6 45.4 14.7 45.4 40.2 13.1 40.2 39.5 12.8 39.9 38.9 12.6 39.7 38.4 12.2 39.5 37.8 11.8 39.3 37.2 11.4 39 36.5 11 38.8 35.9 10.6 38.6 35.6 10.3 38.7 34.1 9.8 38.8 32.6 9.4 38.8 32 9.1 38.4 31.3 8.8 38 30.7 8.5 37.8 29.8 8.3 37.3 29.1 8 36.9 28.5 7.8 36.8 27.7 7.6 36.2 26.9 7.4 35.7 26.1 7.2 35.2 24.9 7 34.2 24.4 6.9 34.2 24.4 6.8 34.1 24.5 6.7 34.3 24.5 6.5 34.3 24 6.4 34.3 23.6 6.3 34.3 23.1 6.2 34.3 CBR Actual CDR CBR Weak FP Demographic Transition in Egypt 1900-2003 CPR Graph 18.9 18.9 19.4 20.1 19.91 21.3 20.41 22.51 20.91 23.71 21.42 25.27 21.92 26.82 22.42 28.37 22.93 29.91 23.43 31.59 23.93 33.28 24.44 34.97 24.94 36.66 25.44 38.45 25.95 39.89 26.45 41.41 26.95 44.63 27.46 45.76 27.96 46.98 28.46 48.12 28.97 47.86 29.47 48.44 29.97 48.6 30.48 49.21 30.98 49.49 31.48 51 31.99 52.52 32.49 54.04 32.99 57.44 33.5 58.86 Counterfactual Actual Contraceptive Prevalence Rate TFR Graph 5.6 5.6 5.57 5.52 5.53 5.44 5.5 5.36 5.47 5.28 5.43 5.17 5.39 5.07 5.36 4.96 5.32 4.85 5.29 4.74 5.25 4.63 5.22 4.51 5.19 4.4 5.18 4.3 5.15 4.2 5.13 4.1 5.13 3.9 5.07 3.8 5.02 3.7 4.97 3.6 4.88 3.58 4.88 3.56 4.84 3.54 4.85 3.52 4.81 3.5 4.78 3.4 4.75 3.3 4.72 3.2 4.69 2.96 4.65 2.86 Counterfactual Actual Total Fertility Rate Population Graph 36620500 36620500 37638416 37627280 38682612 38648716 39760252 39691228 40875140 40757816 42028036 41841732 43219940 42942748 44452580 44061240 45742308 45210748 47090820 46388224 48497004 47590588 49943660 48800556 51428408 50014376 52959552 51232848 54524780 52452244 56127360 53671464 57785148 54855720 59473820 56040516 61196736 57224108 62950384 58404464 64707848 59602928 66526096 60835060 68403264 62108156 70360376 63423040 72386480 64781168 74480984 66140032 76646312 67496448 78884864 68847368 81201704 70116312 83598088 71373520 Counterfactual Actual Population Growth 1976-2005 Age Structure Graph 13004100 8357210 11100600 8031330 9978020 7509750 8860280 7503860 7541710 6969950 6177280 6065330 4686060 4686060 4470440 4470440 4484610 4484610 3452020 3452020 2629160 2629160 2162960 2162960 1604910 1604910 1372060 1372060 984594 984594 577216 577216 512065 512065 Counterfactual Actual Population by Age Groups, 2005 Age Structure Data Population by Age and Sex - Total Counterfactual Actual Total Total 2005 0-4 13,004,100 8,357,210 5-9 11,100,600 8,031,330 10-14 9,978,020 7,509,750 15-19 8,860,280 7,503,860 20-24 7,541,710 6,969,950 25-29 6,177,280 6,065,330 30-34 4,686,060 4,686,060 35-39 4,470,440 4,470,440 40-44 4,484,610 4,484,610 45-49 3,452,020 3,452,020 50-54 2,629,160 2,629,160 55-59 2,162,960 2,162,960 60-64 1,604,910 1,604,910 65-69 1,372,060 1,372,060 70-74 984,594 984,594 75-79 577,216 577,216 80+ 512,065 512,065 Total 83,598,096 71,373,504 Spectrum Files: Egypt76counterfactual Egypt76base2 Food Subsidies Graph 1098.0049717192 1094.8533657479 1787.1220448331 1779.2 1655.6183432881 1645 2072.747512553 2054.5 1775.6342040614 1755 1521.7038526847 1499 1150.8087821315 1129.3 843.8130842198 824.5 1565.0307618753 1522 1704.9898352088 1649.4 2740.4676435578 2636.3 2483.7796996929 2375.1 2502.2520998576 2375.4 2308.8874269466 2175.6 2654.199154636 2481.9 3746.6627520527 3476.1 3394.498141796 3126.7 3242.6997272428 2965.3 2852.6252508028 2590.1 3006.5360316629 2710.1 3438.1281966389 3076.9 3972.2421507386 3527.4 4782.6408917163 4211.7 8415.50922645 7344.7 13433.9605083622 11600 13830.4168194129 11807.9917266613 8546 Million LE Counterfactual Actual Food Subsidies Education Graph 6669.0477964289 6669.0477964289 6784.3518500974 6784.3518500974 6885.5598307455 6885.5598307455 7188.5489900868 7181.249430218 7538.3379518575 7515.7514312814 7772.858347652 7727.458061994 8385.5087900827 8305.3384605944 8874.3397199369 8745.6691348932 9359.8272651135 9167.7305989844 9872.0250524691 9600.0517885592 10525.787986743 10152.801954738 11066.6988312417 10570.8676231738 11777.8081075472 11128.9285278322 12556.4116763648 11724.9753752395 13123.3625807445 12087.7338254008 14050.025362452 12732.52732087 14304.8672826975 12779.0013635859 14911.0960444719 13101.5630490111 15548.1031332718 13393.8942940636 16197.5244566741 13681.3398048835 16906.095066192 14013.070013166 17511.4859487222 14213.2495447879 17795.801567906 14191.227321064 18753.0823113203 14699.0650206482 19402.5937295403 14969.6488512817 20096.003496158 15270.4037700547 36,565 Million Costs Saved LE Counterfactual Actual Education Costs Immunizaton Graph 5.2568153945 5.0779013307 7.8273157613 7.4569839022 10.5339666139 9.8940748594 13.3794089582 12.3848062359 16.5211216366 15.0657149937 19.8663288306 17.8073712662 23.3827600283 20.5911373806 26.8599093889 23.2246723616 30.4325553544 25.8220217199 37.4201046699 31.0496625745 47.6096746123 38.8141898597 58.3283210252 46.6287799583 90.2707102966 68.5914168652 97.1668193528 72.7313269305 104.092207645 76.5761320543 112.6985711311 81.5409461637 117.7842782916 86.1025264577 126.2991211641 91.7369452411 135.0895506469 98.0464270697 145.444259706 104.5737477232 171.8313315892 123.1254204776 216.844179648 151.1649850852 258.724839906 175.1503252792 266.6221818036 174.9590947032 274.8343532798 166.7602244442 283.3780320144 165.9254195917 808 Million LE saved Counterfactual Actual Child Immunization Costs CBA Summary Graph 3492.0002343916 45919.2776188733 Expenditure on FP Expenditure Saved LE (Millions) Expenditures on FP vs Expenditures Saved, 1980-2005 3,492 IMR Graph 120.8 120.14108 120 118.95372 108.5 117.76636 97 116.87584 97 115.68848 97 114.79796 92 113.6106 87 112.72008 82 111.82956 72 111.53272 62 110.6422 58 110.04852 56.8 110.04852 55.6 108.26748 54.4 106.78328 53.2 105.29908 52 102.62752 48 102.62752 44 101.44016 42 101.737 40 100.54964 38 99.65912 35.4666666667 98.7686 33.0666666667 97.87808 30.6666666667 96.98756 28.2666666667 95.8002 Actual Counterfactual Infant Mortality Rate Infant Deaths Graph 192767.92469404 187228.4032 195160.8259494 187562.64 197594.64042508 170988.405 200514.1779932801 154043.857 204813.1496648001 156599.225 209648.51167244 158785.799 213588.7232742 152311.152 216362.2483572 144392.508 218746.5592587601 136097.532 223232.06988368 119574.576 225036.9408552 102806.354 227743.2111696 95954.214 233808.20520384 91695.1936 233201.4393362401 89641.9896 233491.35899848 87506.752 233252.09877212 85264.8636 227307.02573248 84193.98 233530.25591776 79334.928 236795.21445344 74546.252 245758.847573 72946.65 249888.37851936 71231.32 254536.9665731201 67658.24 259441.9015790001 63068.7773333326 264469.41062432 58630.1098666666 269523.0949242 51709.2133333338 274002.8462298001 47338.0170666663 Cummulative Saved: 3.5 milion Counterfactual Actual Annual Infant Deaths Infant Deaths Averted Graph 1959916.9146023083 1458796.5578712795 1.9 million 1.5 million Due to Lower Risk Due to Fewer Births Infants Deaths Averted due to Lower Risk or Fewer Births 1980-2005 U5 deaths graph 269993.2768 315795.7560236 261024.674 319785.992046 241117.29 323846.4343772 220743.259 328687.5123151999 217140.1625 335812.292032 212805.71 343801.1796796 204185.24 350346.824478 193629.8 354961.287948 182569.86 358939.8109284 161923.905 366323.0390511999 140944.195 369355.077768 124078.725 373844.9396639999 117847.696 383800.7461055999 114470.886 382955.5296215999 110992.02 383561.2975831999 107382.441 383301.4501707999 105242.475 373775.0486431999 99995.0655 384008.2922383999 91488.582 389493.8989695999 89157.0166666667 404207.2005699999 86664.7726666667 411124.6417823999 81902.08 418870.5072608 75081.8777777785 427043.6931099999 68854.9173333344 435424.4076687999 59765.3588888902 443854.2069780001 53683.2465555572 451382.994882 Cummulative Deaths Averted: 6.1 million Actual Counterfactual Annual Under Five Deaths, 1980-2005 U5MR Graph 196.8172 174.2 194.9148 167 193.0124 153 191.5856 139 189.6832 134.5 188.2564 130 186.354 123.3333333333 184.9272 116.6666666667 183.5004 110 183.0248 97.5 181.598 85 180.6468 75 180.6468 73 177.7932 71 175.4152 69 173.0372 67 168.7568 65 168.7568 60.5 166.8544 54 167.33 51.3333333333 165.4276 48.6666666667 164.0008 46 162.574 42.2222222222 161.1472 38.8333333333 159.7204 35.4444444444 157.818 32.0555555556 Counterfactual Actual Under Five Mortality Rate Maternal Deaths Graph 5134.4416 4959.6928 5209.047875 4962.59485 5285.23695 4964.1795 5361.303125 4962.753125 5488.1935 5004.7175 5615.684925 5033.673525 5734.02135 5049.4458 5806.381625 5020.5441 5868.213 4979.178 5374.01139 4459.13523 4820.38092 3929.85579 4252.7814 3399.757065 3696.79008 2808.97248 3505.534095 2623.962915 3312.685365 2436.9987 3106.7324475 2247.8190075 2857.18746 2088.65835 2679.4165575 1946.1849525 2486.06571 1804.358145 2300.8866225 1654.3258125 2087.58816 1495.85772 1952.591102 1361.17696 1809.841085 1225.217695 1461.3801027 958.9665853091 1203.4347638182 730.2035829091 930.3024642818 544.7170602364 17,000 mothers' lives saved Counterfactual Actual Annual Maternal Deaths CBA Summary Cumulative costs and Benefits of Family Planning 1980-2005 Summary: Demographic Impacts Population Weak FP Actual Costs 1976-2006 (Millions LE) B/C Ratio Population in 2006 86,079,496 72,624,448 4,114 % Under 15 40.68 33.02 Expenditure Saved Doubling Time 24.4 40.6 Education 36,565 8.8874 Fertility Immunization 808 0.1963 TFR in 2003 4.72 3.20 Food subsidy 8,547 2.0774 Births Averted (1980-2005) 12,932,505 Total 45,919 11.1611 Mortality ((1980-2005) Infant deaths Averted 3,418,713 Infant Deaths Prevented 1,959,917 Under 5 deaths averted 6,533,182 Expenditure on FP Under 5 deaths prevented 4,134,410 (Millions LE) Maternal Deaths Averted 16,687 GOE 1,791 Donor 1,529 Sponsoring Agency and Client Pay 172 Total 3,492 13 cpr only graph 18.9 20.1 21.3 22.51 23.71 25.27 26.82 28.37 29.91 31.59 33.28 34.97 36.66 38.45 39.89 41.41 44.63 45.76 46.98 48.12 47.86 48.44 48.6 49.21 49.49 51 52.52 54.04 57.44 58.86 CPR CPR Change 1976-2005 TFR Only Change 5.6 5.52 5.44 5.36 5.28 5.17 5.07 4.96 4.85 4.74 4.63 4.51 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.52 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.96 2.86 TFR Change 1976-2005 POP 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Pop Counterfactual 36,620,500 37,638,416 38,682,612 39,760,252 40,875,140 42,028,036 43,219,940 44,452,580 45,742,308 47,090,820 48,497,004 49,943,660 51,428,408 52,959,552 54,524,780 56,127,360 57,785,148 59,473,820 61,196,736 62,950,384 64,707,848 66,526,096 68,403,264 70,360,376 72,386,480 74,480,984 76,646,312 78,884,864 81,201,704 83,598,088 86,079,496 Actual 36,620,500 37,627,280 38,648,716 39,691,228 40,757,816 41,841,732 42,942,748 44,061,240 45,210,748 46,388,224 47,590,588 48,800,556 50,014,376 51,232,848 52,452,244 53,671,464 54,855,720 56,040,516 57,224,108 58,404,464 59,602,928 60,835,060 62,108,156 63,423,040 64,781,168 66,140,032 67,496,448 68,847,368 70,116,312 71,373,520 72,624,448 Pop <=1 Counterfactual 1,042,081 1,332,086 1,367,417 1,404,695 1,443,733 1,482,856 1,523,140 1,564,227 1,621,183 1,679,574 1,736,480 1,778,446 1,817,907 1,865,718 1,901,516 1,940,440 1,997,646 2,030,847 2,067,327 2,100,086 2,105,601 2,168,415 2,229,457 2,311,791 2,383,223 2,454,209 2,528,658 2,605,843 2,686,105 2,769,607 2,858,348 Actual 1,042,081 1,320,956 1,344,428 1,369,058 1,394,596 1,412,698 1,430,616 1,447,945 1,478,367 1,505,502 1,529,165 1,537,750 1,542,494 1,548,096 1,550,227 1,551,225 1,517,894 1,520,130 1,520,843 1,519,478 1,539,234 1,575,021 1,618,114 1,662,167 1,707,694 1,710,862 1,711,839 1,709,970 1,629,838 1,621,679 1,618,837 Births Counterfactual 1,471,751 1,502,109 1,534,457 1,568,668 1,604,513 1,640,645 1,677,853 1,715,617 1,770,385 1,826,239 1,880,007 1,919,465 1,956,071 2,001,494 2,033,916 2,069,480 2,124,592 2,153,938 2,186,591 2,215,139 2,214,874 2,275,513 2,334,334 2,415,629 2,485,224 2,554,076 2,626,765 2,702,029 2,778,945 2,860,149 2,946,462 Actual 1,471,751 1,489,558 1,508,660 1,528,871 1,549,904 1,563,022 1,575,930 1,588,081 1,614,425 1,636,967 1,655,556 1,659,684 1,659,726 1,660,758 1,658,167 1,654,383 1,614,352 1,612,266 1,608,580 1,602,723 1,619,115 1,652,811 1,694,233 1,736,825 1,780,783 1,780,480 1,778,255 1,773,088 1,686,170 1,674,694 1,668,740 Difference 54,609 77,623 101,923 127,536 155,960 189,272 224,451 259,781 296,345 340,736 375,749 415,097 510,240 541,672 578,011 612,416 595,759 622,702 640,101 678,804 704,441 773,596 848,510 928,941 1,092,775 1,185,455 1,277,722 Cummulative 0 0 0 0 54,609 132,232 234,155 361,691 517,651 706,923 931,374 1,191,155 1,487,500 1,828,236 2,203,985 2,619,082 3,129,322 3,670,994 4,249,005 4,861,421 5,457,180 6,079,882 6,719,983 7,398,787 8,103,228 8,876,824 9,725,334 10,654,275 11,747,050 12,932,505 14,210,227 TFR Counterfactual 5.60 5.57 5.53 5.50 5.47 5.43 5.39 5.36 5.32 5.29 5.25 5.22 5.19 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.13 5.07 5.02 4.97 4.88 4.88 4.84 4.85 4.81 4.78 4.75 4.72 4.69 4.65 4.61 Actual 5.60 5.52 5.44 5.36 5.28 5.17 5.07 4.96 4.85 4.74 4.63 4.51 4.40 4.30 4.20 4.10 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.52 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.20 2.96 2.86 2.77 Pop 6-10 Counterfactual 4,723,072 4,672,476 4,666,664 4,706,637 4,778,088 4,858,931 491623400.00% 5,238,234 5,575,422 5,932,518 6,319,758 6,758,667 6,960,562 7,168,345 7,395,541 7,641,839 7,905,133 8,169,642 8,432,043 8,685,078 8,915,665 9,128,732 9,356,918 9,578,975 9,789,960 9,997,822 10,172,183 10,351,556 10,557,624 10,808,366 11,096,766 Actual 4,723,072 4,672,476 4,666,664 4,706,637 4,778,088 4,858,931 4,916,234 5,227,567 5,542,677 5,865,479 6,205,341 6,576,451 6,699,353 6,816,264 6,938,742 7,062,660 7,191,249 7,309,909 7,415,373 7,495,745 7,550,923 7,583,560 7,574,546 7,562,683 7,545,653 7,524,715 7,521,684 7,586,088 7,690,144 7,836,413 8,028,553 Pop 11-13 Counterfactual 2,987,300 2,983,895 2,929,853 2,856,177 2,792,775 2,759,062 276165400.00% 2,792,540 2,844,030 2,902,024 2,954,643 2,974,670 3,254,662 3,561,011 3,916,949 4,035,359 4,157,604 4,282,929 4,410,507 4,555,566 4,718,333 4,896,072 5,058,801 5,202,633 5,337,555 5,466,422 5,594,782 5,732,543 5,867,834 6,000,708 6,109,429 Actual 2,987,300 2,983,895 2,929,853 2,856,177 2,792,775 2,759,062 2,761,654 2,792,540 2,844,030 2,902,024 2,954,643 2,974,670 3,244,060 3,528,457 3,850,284 3,932,118 4,008,769 4,078,910 4,141,152 4,215,228 4,298,073 4,386,413 4,452,833 4,496,736 4,522,689 4,542,038 4,557,466 4,534,443 4,511,325 4,487,646 4,495,004 Pop 14-16 Counterfactual 2,661,752 2,795,057 2,907,666 2,969,039 2,966,374 2,913,341 284074400.00% 2,778,322 2,745,415 2,748,629 2,780,006 2,831,856 2,890,152 2,943,057 2,963,491 3,243,006 3,548,869 3,904,097 4,022,723 4,145,209 4,270,802 4,398,656 4,543,956 4,706,889 4,884,749 5,047,629 5,191,665 5,326,828 5,456,004 5,584,692 5,722,795 Actual 2,661,752 2,795,057 2,907,666 2,969,039 2,966,374 2,913,341 2,840,744 2,778,322 2,745,415 2,748,629 2,780,006 2,831,856 2,890,152 2,943,057 2,963,491 3,232,440 3,516,422 3,837,644 3,919,800 3,996,811 4,067,353 4,130,015 4,204,476 4,287,640 4,376,259 4,442,988 4,487,247 4,513,589 4,533,372 4,549,239 4,526,719 CPR Counterfactual 18.90 19.40 19.91 20.41 20.91 21.42 21.92 22.42 22.93 23.43 23.93 24.44 24.94 25.44 25.95 26.45 26.95 27.46 27.96 28.46 28.97 29.47 29.97 30.48 30.98 31.48 31.99 32.49 32.99 33.50 34.00 Actual 18.90 20.10 21.30 22.51 23.71 25.27 26.82 28.37 29.91 31.59 33.28 34.97 36.66 38.45 39.89 41.41 44.63 45.76 46.98 48.12 47.86 48.44 48.60 49.21 49.49 51.00 52.52 54.04 57.44 58.86 60.10 CYP Counterfactual 1,048,413 1,109,992 1,175,366 1,242,143 1,504,264 1,590,397 1,675,109 1,759,983 1,777,579 1,857,221 1,940,613 2,028,199 2,163,639 2,271,127 2,388,403 2,555,012 2,516,713 2,654,908 2,783,367 2,839,621 2,968,719 3,297,543 3,018,331 3,135,153 3,349,070 3,487,863 3,643,182 3,931,791 4,114,011 4,302,365 4,502,985 Actual 1,082,725 1,184,476 1,292,638 1,404,695 1,769,301 1,948,988 2,130,537 2,315,470 2,429,615 2,622,415 2,824,068 3,035,493 3,338,358 3,543,017 3,802,610 4,463,131 4,218,200 4,488,016 4,714,162 4,505,023 4,784,452 5,164,485 4,736,180 4,789,585 5,352,211 5,601,161 5,879,454 6,862,964 6,868,954 7,131,923 7,447,798 Cost/CYP 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 Annual FP Cost Counterfactual 37.74 39.96 42.31 44.72 54.15 57.25 60.30 63.36 63.99 66.86 69.86 73.02 77.89 81.76 85.98 91.98 90.60 95.58 100.20 102.23 106.87 118.71 108.66 112.87 120.57 125.56 131.15 141.54 148.10 154.89 162.11 millions LE Actual 38.98 42.64 46.53 50.57 63.69 70.16 76.70 83.36 87.47 94.41 101.67 109.28 120.18 127.55 136.89 160.67 151.86 161.57 169.71 162.18 172.24 185.92 170.50 172.43 192.68 201.64 211.66 247.07 247.28 256.75 268.12 Cummulative Actual 39 82 128 179 242 313 389 473 560 655 756 865 986 1,113 1,250 1,411 1,563 1,724 1,894 2,056 2,228 2,414 2,585 2,757 2,950 3,151 3,363 3,610 3,857 4,114 4,382 Difference 9.54 12.91 16.40 20.00 23.47 27.55 31.80 36.26 42.29 45.79 50.91 68.69 61.25 65.99 69.51 59.95 65.37 67.21 61.84 59.56 72.11 76.08 80.51 105.52 99.18 101.86 106.01 Cummulative 9.54 22.45 38.85 58.84 82.32 109.86 141.67 177.93 220.22 266.01 316.92 385.61 446.87 512.86 582.37 642.32 707.69 774.90 836.74 896.30 968.41 1,044.49 1,125.00 1,230.52 1,329.70 1,431.56 1,537.57 2,987,300.00 36,620,500 2,983,895.00 37,627,280 2,929,853 1,082,725 38,648,716 2,856,177 1,184,476 39,691,228 2,792,775 1,292,638 40,757,816 2,759,062 1,404,695 41,841,732 2,761,654 1,769,301 42,942,748 2,792,540 1,948,988 44,061,240 2,844,030 2,130,537 45,210,748 2,902,024 2,315,470 46,335,820 2,954,643 2,429,615 47,438,488 2,974,670 2,622,415 48,549,556 3,244,060 2,824,068 49,764,856 3,528,457 3,035,493 50,984,080 3,850,284 3,338,358 52,204,052 3,932,118 3,543,017 53,423,736 4,008,769 3,802,610 54,608,348 4,078,910 4,463,131 55,793,340 4,141,152 4,218,200 56,977,112 4,215,228 4,488,016 58,157,640 4,298,073 4,714,162 59,356,272 4,386,413 4,505,023 60,588,588 4,452,833 4,784,452 61,861,872 4,496,736 5,164,485 63,176,936 4,522,689 4,736,180 64,534,000 4,542,038 4,789,585 65,889,544 4,557,466 5,352,211 67,240,536 4,534,443 5,601,161 68,586,224 4,511,325 5,879,454 69,850,328 4,487,646 6,862,964 71,099,872 4,495,004 6,868,954 72,337,816 7,131,923 7,447,798 Summary Summary Demographic Indicators - Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Egypt76conterfactual Fertility Input TFR 6 6 6 6 5 5.43 5 5 5 5.29 5.25 5.22 5.19 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.13 5.07 5.02 4.97 4.88 4.88 4.84 4.85 4.81 4.78 4.75 4.72 4.69 4.65 4.61 GRR 3 3 3 3 3 2.65 3 3 3 2.58 2.56 2.55 2.53 2.53 2.51 2.5 2.5 2.47 2.45 2.42 2.38 2.38 2.36 2.36 2.35 2.33 2.32 2.3 2.29 2.27 2.25 NRR 2 2 2 2 2 2.22 2 2 2 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.24 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.27 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.2 2.21 2.21 2.22 2.21 2.2 2.2 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.16 Mean Age of Childbearing 29 29 29 29 29 29.2 29 29 29 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28 27.9 28 28.1 28.1 28 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 Child-woman ratio 1 1 1 1 1 0.69 1 1 1 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.7 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 Fertility table: Custom Mortality Male LE 53 54 54 55 56 56.6 57 58 59 60 61 61 61.4 61.9 62.3 62.8 63.3 63.7 64.2 64.6 65.1 65.5 65.9 66.3 66.7 67.1 67.5 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.2 Female LE 58 58 59 59 60 60.6 61 62 62 63 64 64 64.7 65.2 65.8 66.4 66.9 67.4 68 68.5 69 69.5 70 70.5 71 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.8 73.2 73.6 Total LE 55 56 57 57 58 58.6 59 60 61 61 62 63 63 63.5 64.1 64.6 65.1 65.6 66 66.5 67 67.5 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.3 69.7 70.1 70.6 71 71.4 IMR 117 113 109 104 100 95.8 92 88 84 80 76 73 70.4 67.6 64.9 62.2 59.6 57 54.4 51.8 49.3 47 44.9 42.9 41 39.1 37.3 35.6 33.4 31.6 29.9 U5MR 154 148 142 136 130 123.9 118 113 107 101 96 92 87.5 83.6 79.9 76.1 72.6 69 65.4 61.9 58.3 55.3 52.5 50.1 47.7 45.3 43.2 41 38.3 36.2 34 Life table: Coale-Demeny East Immigration Male immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Female immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Vital Rates CBR per 1000 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 37.8 37.3 36.9 36.8 36.2 35.7 35.2 34.2 34.2 34.1 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 CDR per 1000 13 13 13 12 12 11.6 11 11 11 10 10 10 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 RNI percent 3 3 3 3 3 2.74 3 3 3 3 3 3 2.89 2.89 2.87 2.86 2.87 2.84 2.82 2.79 2.72 2.73 2.74 2.78 2.8 2.81 2.83 2.84 2.85 2.87 2.88 GR percent 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2.89 2.89 2.87 2.86 2.87 2.84 2.82 2.79 2.72 2.73 2.74 2.78 2.8 2.81 2.83 2.84 2.85 2.87 2.88 Doubling time 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 24 24 24.4 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.8 25 25.2 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.1 25 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.4 Annual births and deaths (Millions) Births 1.47 1.5 1.53 1.57 1.6 2 1.68 1.72 1.77 2 2 2 1.96 2 2.03 2.07 2.12 2.15 2.19 2.22 2.21 2.28 2.33 2.42 2.49 2.55 2.63 2.7 2.78 2.86 2.95 Deaths 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.47 Population (Millions) Total population 37 38 39 39.76 41 42.03 43 44 46 47.09 48.5 49.94 51.43 52.96 54.52 56.13 57.79 59.47 61.2 62.95 64.71 66.53 68.4 70.36 72.39 74.48 76.65 78.88 81.2 83.6 86.08 Male population 19 19 20 20.19 21 21.32 22 23 23 23.86 24.56 25.29 26.04 26.81 27.6 28.41 29.24 30.09 30.96 31.84 32.73 33.64 34.59 35.58 36.59 37.65 38.74 39.87 41.04 42.25 43.5 Female population 18 18 19 19.57 20 20.71 21 22 23 23.24 23.93 24.65 25.39 26.15 26.92 27.72 28.54 29.38 30.24 31.11 31.98 32.88 33.81 34.79 35.79 36.83 37.91 39.02 40.16 41.35 42.58 Percent 0-4 14 14 15 15.25 16 16.38 16 16 16 16.45 16.51 16.56 16.58 16.57 16.51 16.41 16.33 16.23 16.11 15.99 15.82 15.65 15.52 15.44 15.4 15.44 15.47 15.51 15.54 15.56 15.58 Percent 5-14 26 25 25 24.04 23 22.75 23 23 23 23.69 24.03 24.38 24.74 25.13 25.57 26.09 26.15 26.2 26.24 26.27 26.29 26.32 26.3 26.23 26.1 25.89 25.69 25.5 25.35 25.21 25.1 Percent 15-49 47 48 48 48.13 48 48.37 48 48 48 47.36 46.98 46.61 46.26 45.93 45.6 45.26 45.38 45.53 45.71 45.89 46.09 46.26 46.41 46.55 46.71 46.88 47.06 47.21 47.35 47.46 47.51 Percent 15-64 56 57 57 56.82 57 56.88 57 57 56 56.14 55.76 55.34 54.9 54.44 54 53.54 53.55 53.6 53.68 53.79 53.93 54.06 54.17 54.29 54.43 54.58 54.73 54.86 54.99 55.11 55.21 Percent 65 and over 4 4 4 3.9 4 3.98 4 4 4 3.71 3.69 3.72 3.78 3.86 3.92 3.96 3.98 3.97 3.96 3.96 3.96 3.98 4.01 4.04 4.07 4.09 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.12 4.11 Percent females 15-49 48 48 48 48.15 48 48.25 48 48 47 47 46.6 46.22 45.88 45.56 45.25 44.91 45.03 45.19 45.35 45.53 45.72 45.88 46.01 46.14 46.28 46.43 46.58 46.71 46.83 46.93 47 Sex ratio 104 104 103 103.18 103 102.93 103 103 103 102.67 102.64 102.62 102.58 102.55 102.52 102.48 102.45 102.42 102.39 102.37 102.34 102.32 102.3 102.27 102.24 102.22 102.2 102.18 102.17 102.17 102.17 Dependency ratio 1 1 1 0.76 1 0.76 1 1 1 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.81 Median age 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Urban population 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rural population 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent urban 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent rural 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summary Demographic Indicators - Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Egypt76base-2 Fertility Input TFR 5.6 5.52 5.44 5.36 5.28 5.17 5.07 4.96 4.85 4.74 4.63 4.51 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.52 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.96 2.86 2.77 GRR 2.73 2.69 2.65 2.61 2.58 2.52 2.47 2.42 2.37 2.31 2.26 2.2 2.15 2.1 2.05 2 1.9 1.85 1.8 1.76 1.75 1.74 1.73 1.72 1.71 1.66 1.61 1.56 1.44 1.4 1.35 NRR 2.21 2.2 2.18 2.16 2.15 2.12 2.09 2.06 2.03 2 1.97 1.93 1.9 1.87 1.83 1.8 1.72 1.69 1.65 1.62 1.62 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.57 1.52 1.48 1.38 1.33 1.3 Mean Age of Childbearing 29 29 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28 27.9 28 28.1 28.1 28 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 Child-woman ratio 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.61 0.59 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.44 Fertility table: Custom Mortality Male LE 52.7 53.5 54.3 55 55.8 56.6 57.4 58.2 58.9 59.7 60.5 61 61.4 61.9 62.3 62.8 63.3 63.7 64.2 64.6 65.1 65.5 65.9 66.3 66.7 67.1 67.5 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.2 Female LE 57.7 58.3 58.9 59.4 60 60.6 61.2 61.8 62.3 62.9 63.5 64.1 64.7 65.2 65.8 66.4 66.9 67.4 68 68.5 69 69.5 70 70.5 71 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.8 73.2 73.6 Total LE 55.2 55.8 56.5 57.2 57.9 58.6 59.3 59.9 60.6 61.3 62 62.5 63 63.5 64.1 64.6 65.1 65.6 66 66.5 67 67.5 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.3 69.7 70.1 70.6 71 71.4 IMR 117.2 112.8 108.5 104.2 99.9 95.8 91.9 87.9 84 80 76.1 73.2 70.4 67.6 64.9 62.2 59.6 57 54.4 51.8 49.2 47 44.9 42.9 41 39.1 37.3 35.6 33.4 31.7 29.9 U5MR 154.3 148.1 142 135.8 129.6 123.9 118.2 112.6 106.9 101.3 95.6 91.5 87.5 83.6 79.9 76.1 72.6 69 65.4 61.9 58.3 55.3 52.5 50.1 47.7 45.3 43.2 41 38.3 36.2 34 Life table: Coale-Demeny East Immigration Male immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Female immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Vital Rates CBR per 1000 40.2 39.6 39 38.5 38 37.4 36.7 36 35.7 35.3 34.8 34 33.2 32.4 31.6 30.8 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.8 24 23.5 23 CDR per 1000 13.1 12.8 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.1 6 5.8 5.8 RNI percent 2.71 2.68 2.64 2.63 2.62 2.59 2.56 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.53 2.48 2.43 2.38 2.32 2.27 2.16 2.11 2.07 2.02 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.07 2.1 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.81 1.76 1.72 GR percent 2.71 2.68 2.64 2.63 2.62 2.59 2.56 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.53 2.48 2.43 2.38 2.32 2.27 2.16 2.11 2.07 2.02 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.07 2.1 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.81 1.76 1.72 Doubling time 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.2 30.9 32.5 33.1 33.9 34.6 34.8 34.6 34.2 33.8 33.4 34.1 34.8 35.7 38.6 39.7 40.6 Annual births and deaths Births 1,471,751 1,489,558 1,508,660 1,528,871 1,549,904 1,563,022 1,575,930 1,588,081 1,614,425 1,636,967 1,655,556 1,659,684 1,659,726 1,660,758 1,658,167 1,654,383 1,614,352 1,612,266 1,608,580 1,602,723 1,619,115 1,652,811 1,694,233 1,736,825 1,780,783 1,780,480 1,778,255 1,773,088 1,686,170 1,674,694 1,668,740 Deaths 478,240 482,708 487,234 486,361 483,308 479,106 474,910 469,597 464,920 459,482 453,197 449,715 445,909 442,289 438,766 435,170 430,092 427,467 424,986 422,367 420,652 420,676 421,140 421,941 422,654 421,626 421,824 422,166 417,241 417,477 417,806 Population Total population 36,620,500 37,627,280 38,648,716 39,691,228 40,757,816 41,841,732 42,942,748 44,061,240 45,210,748 46,388,224 47,590,588 48,800,556 50,014,376 51,232,848 52,452,244 53,671,464 54,855,720 56,040,516 57,224,108 58,404,464 59,602,928 60,835,060 62,108,156 63,423,040 64,781,168 66,140,032 67,496,448 68,847,368 70,116,312 71,373,520 72,624,448 Male population 18,644,700 19,138,870 19,641,738 20,156,618 20,685,066 21,223,642 21,772,154 22,330,868 22,906,712 23,498,176 24,103,722 24,712,438 25,322,278 25,933,788 26,545,282 27,156,230 27,749,284 28,342,560 28,935,214 29,526,190 30,126,354 30,743,234 31,380,354 32,038,352 32,717,968 33,397,524 34,076,068 34,752,100 35,386,624 36,015,460 36,641,332 Female population 17,975,700 18,488,422 19,006,982 19,534,606 20,072,752 20,618,092 21,170,598 21,730,368 22,304,034 22,890,048 23,486,868 24,088,120 24,692,098 25,299,058 25,906,966 26,515,230 27,106,432 27,697,952 28,288,898 28,878,276 29,476,572 30,091,828 30,727,804 31,384,684 32,063,200 32,742,498 33,420,382 34,095,280 34,729,688 35,358,068 35,983,124 Percent 0-4 13.77 14.24 14.68 15.1 15.53 16.01 15.87 15.72 15.58 15.44 15.31 15.16 14.99 14.78 14.54 14.26 13.92 13.6 13.28 12.97 12.7 12.54 12.45 12.42 12.45 12.46 12.41 12.3 12.04 11.71 11.38 Percent 5-14 26.18 25.49 24.78 24.08 23.44 22.85 22.98 23.21 23.49 23.81 24.11 24.4 24.67 24.95 25.25 25.61 25.5 25.36 25.19 24.99 24.76 24.44 24.09 23.69 23.25 22.82 22.44 22.13 21.92 21.77 21.64 Percent 15-49 47.39 47.59 47.89 48.22 48.46 48.59 48.58 48.48 48.29 48.08 47.88 47.7 47.57 47.47 47.41 47.33 47.78 48.26 48.76 49.27 49.74 50.15 50.5 50.83 51.13 51.45 51.77 52.08 52.42 52.73 52.98 Percent 15-64 56.47 56.6 56.76 56.92 57.05 57.14 57.18 57.18 57.11 56.99 56.83 56.64 56.45 56.28 56.13 55.99 56.39 56.83 57.29 57.78 58.25 58.67 59.05 59.41 59.76 60.12 60.49 60.84 61.26 61.69 62.11 Percent 65 and over 3.58 3.67 3.79 3.9 3.98 4 3.96 3.9 3.82 3.77 3.76 3.81 3.89 3.99 4.08 4.14 4.19 4.22 4.24 4.26 4.3 4.35 4.41 4.48 4.54 4.6 4.66 4.72 4.78 4.83 4.87 Percent females 15-49 47.74 47.8 47.99 48.23 48.41 48.46 48.39 48.21 47.97 47.71 47.48 47.3 47.17 47.09 47.03 46.95 47.4 47.87 48.36 48.85 49.3 49.69 50.02 50.33 50.61 50.9 51.18 51.44 51.75 52.04 52.31 Sex ratio 103.72 103.52 103.34 103.18 103.05 102.94 102.84 102.76 102.7 102.66 102.63 102.59 102.55 102.51 102.46 102.42 102.37 102.33 102.28 102.24 102.2 102.16 102.12 102.08 102.04 102 101.96 101.93 101.89 101.86 101.83 Dependency ratio 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.7 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.61 Median age 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 Urban population 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rural population 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent urban 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent rural 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Demo Trans Zanaty& Robinson, Table 3.3 CBR CDR Year CBR CDR Growth Rate Actual Counterfacual CBR Actual CDR CBR Weak FP CDR 1900 45.7 34 1.1 1900 45.7 34 45.7 34 1910 44 34.4 0.9 1910 44 34.4 44 34.4 1920 44.1 37.7 0.6 1920 44.1 37.7 44.1 37.7 1930 44.6 29.9 1.5 1930 44.6 29.9 44.6 29.9 1940 46.1 30.4 1.6 1940 46.1 30.4 46.1 30.4 1950 48.7 22.1 2.7 1950 48.7 22.1 48.7 22.1 1960 46.6 19.3 2.7 1960 46.6 19.3 46.6 19.3 1965 45.4 14.7 3.1 1965 45.4 14.7 45.4 14.7 1970 38.2 16.4 2.4 1976 40.2 13.1 40 13 1975 39 12.8 2.7 1977 39.5 12.8 40 13 1980 37.5 10 2.7 1978 38.9 12.6 40 13 1985 39.8 9.4 3 1979 38.4 12.2 40 12 1990 32.5 7.5 2.5 1980 37.8 11.8 39 12 1991 31 7.6 2.3 1981 37.2 11.4 39 11.6 1992 29.2 7.4 2.2 1982 36.5 11 39 11 1993 28.7 7.4 2 1983 35.9 10.6 39 11 1994 28.9 6.7 2.2 1984 35.6 10.3 39 11 1995 27.7 7 2.1 1985 34.1 9.8 39 10 1996 27.6 6.2 2.1 1986 32.6 9.4 39 10 1997 26.6 6.6 2 1987 32 9.1 38 10 1988 31.3 8.8 38 9.2 1989 30.7 8.5 37.8 8.9 1990 29.8 8.3 37.3 8.6 1991 29.1 8 36.9 8.3 1992 28.5 7.8 36.8 8.1 1993 27.7 7.6 36.2 7.8 1994 26.9 7.4 35.7 7.6 1995 26.1 7.2 35.2 7.3 1996 24.9 7 34.2 7.1 1997 24.4 6.9 34.2 6.9 1998 24.4 6.8 34.1 6.7 1999 24.5 6.7 34.3 6.5 2000 24.5 6.5 34.3 6.3 2001 24 6.4 34.3 6.2 2002 23.6 6.3 34.3 6 2003 23.1 6.2 34.3 5.9 2004 23.3 6.1 34.2 5.7 2005 23.5 6 34.2 5.5 2006 23.6 6 34.2 5.4 Education 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 GER -Primary 81.48 82.16 82.85 83.54 84.23 84.92 85.61 86.29 86.98 85.40 88.36 89.05 89.74 90.42 91.50 91.80 92.49 93.18 93.86 99.80 95.24 95.93 96.62 97.31 96.60 98.68 97.40 100.06 100.75 101.44 102.12 GER- Preparatory 49.44 50.87 52.31 53.75 55.18 56.62 58.05 59.49 60.93 61.40 63.80 65.23 66.67 68.11 70.80 70.98 72.41 73.85 75.29 76.50 78.16 79.59 81.03 82.47 85.30 85.34 85.30 88.21 89.65 91.08 92.52 GER Secondary 49.44 50.87 52.31 53.75 55.18 56.62 58.05 59.49 60.93 61.40 63.80 65.23 66.67 68.11 70.80 70.98 72.41 73.85 75.29 76.50 78.16 79.59 81.03 82.47 85.30 85.34 85.30 88.21 89.65 91.08 92.52 Enrolment Primary Counterfactual $3,848,192 $3,839,126 $3,866,468 $3,931,980 $4,024,555 $4,126,090 $4,208,585 $4,520,288 $4,849,633 $5,066,370 $5,584,064 $6,018,394 $6,246,081 $6,481,871 $6,766,920 $7,015,208 $7,311,318 $7,612,184 $7,914,712 $8,667,708 $8,491,384 $8,757,139 $9,040,434 $9,320,906 $9,457,101 $9,866,086 $9,907,706 $10,357,645 $10,636,496 $10,963,498 $11,332,409 Actual $3,848,192 $3,839,126 $3,866,468 $3,931,980 $4,024,555 $4,126,090 $4,208,585 $4,511,083 $4,821,151 $5,009,119 $5,482,966 $5,856,136 $6,011,684 $6,163,506 $6,348,949 $6,483,522 $6,651,059 $6,811,115 $6,960,418 $7,480,754 $7,191,588 $7,274,864 $7,318,348 $7,358,935 $7,289,101 $7,425,566 $7,326,120 $7,590,550 $7,747,594 $7,948,889 $8,199,042 Enrolment Preparatory Counterfactual $1,476,847 $1,518,013 $1,532,592 $1,535,068 $1,541,096 $1,562,113 $1,603,238 $1,661,270 $1,732,741 $1,781,843 $1,884,990 $1,940,483 $2,169,869 $2,425,247 $2,773,200 $2,864,200 $3,010,670 $3,162,926 $3,320,477 $3,485,008 $3,687,736 $3,896,960 $4,099,127 $4,290,383 $4,552,934 $4,664,915 $4,772,349 $5,056,655 $5,260,257 $5,465,543 $5,652,300 Actual $1,476,847 $1,518,013 $1,532,592 $1,535,068 $1,541,096 $1,562,113 $1,603,238 $1,661,270 $1,732,741 $1,781,843 $1,884,990 $1,940,483 $2,162,801 $2,403,076 $2,726,001 $2,790,922 $2,902,894 $3,012,258 $3,117,691 $3,224,649 $3,359,271 $3,491,304 $3,608,113 $3,708,261 $3,857,854 $3,876,067 $3,887,518 $3,999,816 $4,044,206 $4,087,422 $4,158,672 Enrolment Secondary Counterfactual 1,315,904 1,421,944 1,520,987 1,595,726 1,636,891 1,649,462 1,649,153 1,652,811 1,672,659 1,687,658 1,773,576 1,847,321 1,926,852 2,004,386 2,098,152 2,301,807 2,569,863 2,883,160 3,028,531 3,171,085 3,337,957 3,501,049 3,681,950 3,881,565 4,166,691 4,307,527 4,428,490 4,698,776 4,891,070 5,086,629 5,294,595 Actual 1,315,904 1,421,944 1,520,987 1,595,726 1,636,891 1,649,462 1,649,153 1,652,811 1,672,659 1,687,658 1,773,576 1,847,321 1,926,852 2,004,386 2,098,152 2,294,308 2,546,367 2,834,085 2,951,045 3,057,560 3,178,946 3,287,228 3,406,871 3,535,829 3,732,949 3,791,541 3,827,622 3,981,420 4,063,970 4,143,522 4,188,014 Cost per Student Primary 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 Preparatory 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 Scondary 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 Ed Cost Counterfactual 6,057 6,223 6,386 6,537 6,669 6,784 6,886 7,189 7,538 7,773 8,386 8,874 9,360 9,872 10,526 11,067 11,778 12,556 13,123 14,050 14,305 14,911 15,548 16,198 16,906 17,511 17,796 18,753 19,403 20,096 20,822 (millions) Actual 6,057 6,223 6,386 6,537 6,669 6,784 6,886 7,181 7,516 7,727 8,305 8,746 9,168 9,600 10,153 10,571 11,129 11,725 12,088 12,733 12,779 13,102 13,394 13,681 14,013 14,213 14,191 14,699 14,970 15,270 15,589 Savings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 23 45 80 129 192 272 373 496 649 831 1,036 1,317 1,526 1,810 2,154 2,516 2,893 3,298 3,605 4,054 4,433 4,826 5,233 Cummuative Savings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 30 75 155 284 476 748 1,121 1,617 2,266 3,097 4,133 5,450 6,976 8,786 10,940 13,456 16,349 19,648 23,252 27,306 31,739 36,565 41,798 Scott Moreland: Unit costs from Chao CBA Immunization Immunization Rate for under 2's 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Coverage 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 7.6 11.0 14.5 17.9 21.3 24.7 28.2 31.6 35.0 38.4 41.8 45.3 67.4 70.8 74.2 79.1 82.5 85.9 89.4 92.8 92.2 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6 Pop Immunized Counterfactual 43,655 55,804 57,285 58,846 109,907 163,649 220,238 279,729 345,415 415,354 488,874 561,572 636,267 716,873 795,724 878,442 1,346,413 1,438,315 1,534,925 1,661,168 1,737,614 1,863,684 1,992,471 2,145,196 2,197,332 2,346,798 2,417,989 2,491,796 2,568,545 2,648,393 2,733,250 Actual 43,655 55,338 56,322 57,353 106,166 155,907 206,860 258,935 314,986 372,307 430,508 485,569 539,873 594,831 648,721 702,243 1,023,061 1,076,608 1,129,178 1,201,907 1,270,228 1,353,681 1,446,112 1,542,386 1,574,494 1,635,985 1,636,919 1,635,132 1,558,507 1,550,705 1,547,987 Unit Cost Projected 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 52.2 59.8 66.4 67.0 67.6 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.8 78.2 92.4 107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 Immunizaton Cost(Millions LE) Counterfactual 2.09 2.67 2.74 2.81 5.26 7.83 10.53 13.38 16.52 19.87 23.38 26.86 30.43 37.42 47.61 58.33 90.27 97.17 104.09 112.70 117.78 126.30 135.09 145.44 171.83 216.84 258.72 266.62 274.83 283.38 292.46 Actual 2.09 2.65 2.69 2.74 5.08 7.46 9.89 12.38 15.07 17.81 20.59 23.22 25.82 31.05 38.81 46.63 68.59 72.73 76.58 81.54 86.10 91.74 98.05 104.57 123.13 151.16 175.15 174.96 166.76 165.93 165.63 Savings 0.18 0.37 0.64 0.99 1.46 2.06 2.79 3.64 4.61 6.37 8.80 11.70 21.68 24.44 27.52 31.16 31.68 34.56 37.04 40.87 48.71 65.68 83.57 91.66 108.07 117.45 126.82 0.18 0.55 1.19 2.18 3.64 5.70 8.49 12.12 16.74 23.11 31.90 43.60 65.28 89.72 117.23 148.39 180.07 214.63 251.68 292.55 341.25 406.93 490.51 582.17 690.24 807.70 934.52 Note: Cost Actuald on Madagascar PEV Model (obtained from John Snow Inc.) Measles coverage Actuald on United Nations Statistic Division (UNSD), Millenium Indicators DataActual Population age 1 and under Actuald on Spectrum Food 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Per Capita Food Subsidy 7.68 9.12 11.71 25.12 26.86 42.5221403359 38.3068172535 46.6282837251 38.8182031405 32.3142356129 23.7294819724 16.8952993077 30.4312504069 32.1941891655 50.2609573768 44.2525659445 43.3026856634 38.8219123464 43.3715803836 59.517710838 52.4588322238 48.7432740265 41.7030574857 42.7305282118 47.4968280905 53.3322995671 62.3988391211 106.6809118978 165.4393916212 165.44 Food Subsidy Cost Counterfactual 281.40 343.32 452.87 998.84 1,098.00 1,787.12 1,655.62 2,072.75 1,775.63 1,521.70 1,150.81 843.81 1,565.03 1,704.99 2,740.47 2,483.78 2,502.25 2,308.89 2,654.20 3,746.66 3,394.50 3,242.70 2,852.63 3,006.54 3,438.13 3,972.24 4,782.64 8,415.51 13,433.96 13,830.42 0.00 (Millions LE) Actual 281.40 343.22 452.47 997.10 1,094.85 1,779.20 1,645.00 2,054.50 1,755.00 1,499.00 1,129.30 824.50 1,522.00 1,649.40 2,636.30 2,375.10 2,375.40 2,175.60 2,481.90 3,476.10 3,126.70 2,965.30 2,590.10 2,710.10 3,076.90 3,527.40 4,211.70 7,344.70 11,600.00 11,807.99 0.00 Difference 3.15 7.92 10.62 18.25 20.63 22.70 21.51 19.31 43.03 55.59 104.17 108.68 126.85 133.29 172.30 270.56 267.80 277.40 262.53 296.44 361.23 444.84 570.94 1,070.81 1,833.96 2,022.43 0.00 Cummulative Difference 3.15 11.07 21.69 39.94 60.57 83.28 104.79 124.10 167.13 222.72 326.89 435.57 562.42 695.71 868.01 1,138.57 1,406.37 1,683.77 1,946.29 2,242.73 2,603.96 3,048.80 3,619.74 4,690.55 6,524.51 8,546.93 8,546.93 Child Survival 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 64.3 60.9 54.5 47.9 41 IMR observed 124 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120 108.5 97 97 97 92 87 82 72 62 58 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52 48 44 42 40 38 35.4666666667 33.0666666667 30.6666666667 28.2666666667 25.8666666667 Under-five mortality rate observed 203 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167 153 139 134.5 130 123.3333333333 116.6666666667 110 97.5 85 75 73 71 69 67 65 60.5 54 51.3333333333 48.6666666667 46 42.2222222222 38.8333333333 35.4444444444 32.0555555556 28.6666666667 Counterfactual 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 TFR 5.60 5.57 5.53 5.50 5.47 5.43 5.39 5.36 5.32 5.29 5.25 5.22 5.19 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.13 5.07 5.02 4.97 4.88 4.88 4.84 4.85 4.81 4.78 4.75 4.72 4.69 4.65 4.61 Percent of births with any risk 62.8% 62.3% 61.7% 61.2% 60.7% 60.0% 59.4% 58.9% 58.2% 57.8% 57.1% 56.6% 56.1% 55.9% 55.5% 55.1% 55.1% 54.1% 53.3% 52.5% 51.0% 51.0% 50.4% 50.5% 49.9% 49.4% 48.9% 48.4% 47.9% 47.3% 46.6% IMR 124.0 123.1 121.9 121.0 120.1 119.0 117.8 116.9 115.7 114.8 113.6 112.7 111.8 111.5 110.6 110.0 110.0 108.3 106.8 105.3 102.6 102.6 101.4 101.7 100.5 99.7 98.8 97.9 97.0 95.8 94.6 U5MR 203.0 201.6 199.7 198.2 196.8 194.9 193.0 191.6 189.7 188.3 186.4 184.9 183.5 183.0 181.6 180.6 180.6 177.8 175.4 173.0 168.8 168.8 166.9 167.3 165.4 164.0 162.6 161.1 159.7 157.8 155.9 Actual TFR 5.60 5.52 5.44 5.36 5.28 5.17 5.07 4.96 4.85 4.74 4.63 4.51 4.40 4.30 4.20 4.10 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.52 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.20 2.96 2.86 2.77 Percent of births with any risk 64.3% 60.9% 54.5% 47.9% 41.0% IMR 124.0 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120.0 108.5 97.0 97.0 97.0 92.0 87.0 82.0 72.0 62.0 58.0 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52.0 48.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 38.0 35.5 33.1 30.7 28.3 25.9 U5MR 203.0 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167.0 153.0 139.0 134.5 130.0 123.3 116.7 110.0 97.5 85.0 75.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 65.0 60.5 54.0 51.3 48.7 46.0 42.2 38.8 35.4 32.1 28.7 Infant Deaths Counterfactual 182,497 184,924 187,084 189,858 192,768 195,161 197,595 200,514 204,813 209,649 213,589 216,362 218,747 223,232 225,037 227,743 233,808 233,201 233,491 233,252 227,307 233,530 236,795 245,759 249,888 254,537 259,442 264,469 269,523 274,003 278,773 Actual 182,497 183,514 184,660 185,911 187,228 187,563 170,988 154,044 156,599 158,786 152,311 144,393 136,098 119,575 102,806 95,954 91,695 89,642 87,507 85,265 84,194 79,335 74,546 72,947 71,231 67,658 63,069 58,630 51,709 47,338 43,165 Deaths Averted 0 1,410 2,424 3,948 5,540 7,598 26,606 46,470 48,214 50,863 61,278 71,970 82,649 103,657 122,231 131,789 142,113 143,559 145,985 147,987 143,113 154,195 162,249 172,812 178,657 186,879 196,373 205,839 217,814 226,665 235,608 Cummulative Deaths Averted 0 5,540 13,138 39,744 86,214 134,428 185,291 246,568 318,538 401,187 504,845 627,075 758,864 900,977 1,044,537 1,190,521 1,338,509 1,481,622 1,635,817 1,798,066 1,970,878 2,149,535 2,336,414 2,532,787 2,738,626 2,956,440 3,183,105 3,418,713 Deaths Prevented 0 -135 -721 -869 -1,021 -1,635 14,603 31,564 30,171 29,135 35,778 42,687 49,509 65,654 80,657 86,108 85,962 84,914 84,263 83,500 81,972 90,289 97,317 103,753 107,826 109,783 112,567 114,916 111,828 113,098 114,719 Cummulative Deaths Prevented -1,021 -2,657 11,947 43,511 73,682 102,817 138,594 181,282 230,790 296,445 377,102 463,210 549,172 634,086 718,348 801,849 883,821 974,109 1,071,426 1,175,179 1,283,005 1,392,788 1,505,355 1,620,271 1,732,099 1,845,197 1,959,917 1,458,797 U5 deaths Counterfactual 298,765 302,785 306,386 310,979 315,796 319,786 323,846 328,688 335,812 343,801 350,347 354,961 358,940 366,323 369,355 373,845 383,801 382,956 383,561 383,301 373,775 384,008 389,494 404,207 411,125 418,871 427,044 435,424 443,854 451,383 459,399 Actual 298,765 291,655 284,533 277,337 269,993 261,025 241,117 220,743 217,140 212,806 204,185 193,630 182,570 161,924 140,944 124,079 117,848 114,471 110,992 107,382 105,242 99,995 91,489 89,157 86,665 81,902 75,082 68,855 59,765 53,683 47,837 Deaths Averted 0 11,129 21,853 33,642 45,802 58,761 82,729 107,944 118,672 130,995 146,162 161,331 176,370 204,399 228,411 249,766 265,953 268,485 272,569 275,919 268,533 284,013 298,005 315,050 324,460 336,968 351,962 366,569 384,089 397,700 411,562 Cummulative Deaths Averted 45,802 104,564 187,293 295,237 413,909 544,905 691,066 852,398 1,028,768 1,233,167 1,461,578 1,711,344 1,977,297 2,245,782 2,518,351 2,794,270 3,062,803 3,346,816 3,644,821 3,959,871 4,284,331 4,621,300 4,973,261 5,339,831 5,723,920 6,121,620 6,533,182 Deaths Prevented 0 8,600 16,702 25,752 35,054 43,631 63,057 83,510 89,089 95,364 104,334 113,291 121,991 142,036 160,176 174,780 173,780 172,179 171,177 169,948 167,994 178,928 191,202 201,466 207,926 210,098 214,016 216,873 209,550 210,614 212,345 Cummulative Deaths Prevented 35,054 78,686 141,743 225,253 314,342 409,706 514,040 627,331 749,321 891,357 1,051,533 1,226,313 1,400,093 1,572,272 1,743,450 1,913,398 2,081,392 2,260,320 2,451,522 2,652,988 2,860,914 3,071,012 3,285,028 3,501,901 3,711,451 3,922,065 4,134,410 Counterfactual High Risk births, IMR and U5MR Actuald on Ross model using Egypt parameters MMR Pop Births Crude BR CPR Deaths averted Cost per Birth Model A 500,000 19,125 3.82% 16 20% $28.24 Model B 500,000 13,400 2.68% 35 66% $92.01 Model C 500,000 9,300 1.86% 55 80% $280.17 Actual 36,620,500 1,471,751 4.02% 25 0% $28.00 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MMR 330 327.5 325 322.5 320 317.5 315 312.5 310 307.5 305 302.5 300 268.5 237 205.5 174 162.75 151.5 140.25 129 117.75 106.5 95.25 84 76.45 68.9 54.0845454545 43.3054545455 32.5263636364 21.7472727273 Maternal Deaths Counterfactual 4857 4919 4987 5059 5134 5209 5285 5361 5488 5616 5734 5806 5868 5374 4820 4253 3697 3506 3313 3107 2857 2679 2486 2301 2088 1953 1810 1461 1203 930 641 Actual 4857 4878 4903 4931 4960 4963 4964 4963 5005 5034 5049 5021 4979 4459 3930 3400 2809 2624 2437 2248 2089 1946 1804 1654 1496 1361 1225 959 730 545 363 Deaths Averted 175 246 321 399 483 582 685 786 889 915 891 853 888 882 876 859 769 733 682 647 592 591 585 502 473 386 278 0 0 0 0 175 421 742 1141 1624 2206 2891 3677 4566 5481 6371 7224 8112 8994 9869 10728 11497 12230 12912 13558 14150 14741 15326 15828 16302 16687 16965 Note: Maternal deaths are calculated by multiplying MMR by DHS data for number of births (vs pregnancies) Cost based on Costing Cairo, 2002 and Implementing Cairo, 1999 Tinker & Koblinsky, 1993 Price Deflator 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Deflator 2002=base 14.91 13.56 12.22 9.99 8.46 8.36 7.66 7.08 6.36 5.84 5.18 3.95 3.47 2.93 2.47 2.16 1.80 1.64 1.53 1.38 1.29 1.21 1.17 1.14 1.07 1.04 1.00 This fall in fertility has been due to the success of Egypt’s family planning program Demo Tras Actual Graph See Graph in File Egypt Retro Inputs 12-03-05 DemoTrans 2 Scenario Graph 45.7 34 45.7 44 34.4 44 44.1 37.7 44.1 44.6 29.9 44.6 46.1 30.4 46.1 48.7 22.1 48.7 46.6 19.3 46.6 45.4 14.7 45.4 40.2 13.1 40.2 39.5 12.8 39.9 38.9 12.6 39.7 38.4 12.2 39.5 37.8 11.8 39.3 37.2 11.4 39 36.5 11 38.8 35.9 10.6 38.6 35.6 10.3 38.7 34.1 9.8 38.8 32.6 9.4 38.8 32 9.1 38.4 31.3 8.8 38 30.7 8.5 37.8 29.8 8.3 37.3 29.1 8 36.9 28.5 7.8 36.8 27.7 7.6 36.2 26.9 7.4 35.7 26.1 7.2 35.2 24.9 7 34.2 24.4 6.9 34.2 24.4 6.8 34.1 24.5 6.7 34.3 24.5 6.5 34.3 24 6.4 34.3 23.6 6.3 34.3 23.1 6.2 34.3 CBR Actual CDR CBR Weak FP Demographic Transition in Egypt 1900-2003 CPR Graph 18.9 18.9 19.4 20.1 19.91 21.3 20.41 22.51 20.91 23.71 21.42 25.27 21.92 26.82 22.42 28.37 22.93 29.91 23.43 31.59 23.93 33.28 24.44 34.97 24.94 36.66 25.44 38.45 25.95 39.89 26.45 41.41 26.95 44.63 27.46 45.76 27.96 46.98 28.46 48.12 28.97 47.86 29.47 48.44 29.97 48.6 30.48 49.21 30.98 49.49 31.48 51 31.99 52.52 32.49 54.04 32.99 57.44 33.5 58.86 Counterfactual Actual Contraceptive Prevalence Rate Under two Scenarios TFR Graph 5.6 5.6 5.57 5.52 5.53 5.44 5.5 5.36 5.47 5.28 5.43 5.17 5.39 5.07 5.36 4.96 5.32 4.85 5.29 4.74 5.25 4.63 5.22 4.51 5.19 4.4 5.18 4.3 5.15 4.2 5.13 4.1 5.13 3.9 5.07 3.8 5.02 3.7 4.97 3.6 4.88 3.58 4.88 3.56 4.84 3.54 4.85 3.52 4.81 3.5 4.78 3.4 4.75 3.3 4.72 3.2 4.69 2.96 4.65 2.86 Counterfactual Actual Total Fertility Rate Population Graph 36620500 36620500 37638416 37627280 38682612 38648716 39760252 39691228 40875140 40757816 42028036 41841732 43219940 42942748 44452580 44061240 45742308 45210748 47090820 46388224 48497004 47590588 49943660 48800556 51428408 50014376 52959552 51232848 54524780 52452244 56127360 53671464 57785148 54855720 59473820 56040516 61196736 57224108 62950384 58404464 64707848 59602928 66526096 60835060 68403264 62108156 70360376 63423040 72386480 64781168 74480984 66140032 76646312 67496448 78884864 68847368 81201704 70116312 83598088 71373520 83.6 71.4 Counterfactual Actual Population Growth 1976-2005 Age Structure Graph 13004100 8357210 11100600 8031330 9978020 7509750 8860280 7503860 7541710 6969950 6177280 6065330 4686060 4686060 4470440 4470440 4484610 4484610 3452020 3452020 2629160 2629160 2162960 2162960 1604910 1604910 1372060 1372060 984594 984594 577216 577216 512065 512065 Counterfactual Actual Population by Age Groups, 2005 Age Structure Data Population by Age and Sex - Total Counterfactual Actual Total Total 2005 0-4 13,004,100 8,357,210 5-9 11,100,600 8,031,330 10-14 9,978,020 7,509,750 15-19 8,860,280 7,503,860 20-24 7,541,710 6,969,950 25-29 6,177,280 6,065,330 30-34 4,686,060 4,686,060 35-39 4,470,440 4,470,440 40-44 4,484,610 4,484,610 45-49 3,452,020 3,452,020 50-54 2,629,160 2,629,160 55-59 2,162,960 2,162,960 60-64 1,604,910 1,604,910 65-69 1,372,060 1,372,060 70-74 984,594 984,594 75-79 577,216 577,216 80+ 512,065 512,065 Total 83,598,096 71,373,504 Spectrum Files: Egypt76counterfactual Egypt76base2 Food Subsidies Graph 1098.0049717192 1094.8533657479 1787.1220448331 1779.2 1655.6183432881 1645 2072.747512553 2054.5 1775.6342040614 1755 1521.7038526847 1499 1150.8087821315 1129.3 843.8130842198 824.5 1565.0307618753 1522 1704.9898352088 1649.4 2740.4676435578 2636.3 2483.7796996929 2375.1 2502.2520998576 2375.4 2308.8874269466 2175.6 2654.199154636 2481.9 3746.6627520527 3476.1 3394.498141796 3126.7 3242.6997272428 2965.3 2852.6252508028 2590.1 3006.5360316629 2710.1 3438.1281966389 3076.9 3972.2421507386 3527.4 4782.6408917163 4211.7 8415.50922645 7344.7 13433.9605083622 11600 13830.4168194129 11807.9917266613 8546 Million LE Counterfactual Actual Food Subsidies Education Graph 6669.0477964289 6669.0477964289 6784.3518500974 6784.3518500974 6885.5598307455 6885.5598307455 7188.5489900868 7181.249430218 7538.3379518575 7515.7514312814 7772.858347652 7727.458061994 8385.5087900827 8305.3384605944 8874.3397199369 8745.6691348932 9359.8272651135 9167.7305989844 9872.0250524691 9600.0517885592 10525.787986743 10152.801954738 11066.6988312417 10570.8676231738 11777.8081075472 11128.9285278322 12556.4116763648 11724.9753752395 13123.3625807445 12087.7338254008 14050.025362452 12732.52732087 14304.8672826975 12779.0013635859 14911.0960444719 13101.5630490111 15548.1031332718 13393.8942940636 16197.5244566741 13681.3398048835 16906.095066192 14013.070013166 17511.4859487222 14213.2495447879 17795.801567906 14191.227321064 18753.0823113203 14699.0650206482 19402.5937295403 14969.6488512817 20096.003496158 15270.4037700547 36,565 Million Costs Saved LE Counterfactual Actual Education Costs Immunizaton Graph 5.2568153945 5.0779013307 7.8273157613 7.4569839022 10.5339666139 9.8940748594 13.3794089582 12.3848062359 16.5211216366 15.0657149937 19.8663288306 17.8073712662 23.3827600283 20.5911373806 26.8599093889 23.2246723616 30.4325553544 25.8220217199 37.4201046699 31.0496625745 47.6096746123 38.8141898597 58.3283210252 46.6287799583 90.2707102966 68.5914168652 97.1668193528 72.7313269305 104.092207645 76.5761320543 112.6985711311 81.5409461637 117.7842782916 86.1025264577 126.2991211641 91.7369452411 135.0895506469 98.0464270697 145.444259706 104.5737477232 171.8313315892 123.1254204776 216.844179648 151.1649850852 258.724839906 175.1503252792 266.6221818036 174.9590947032 274.8343532798 166.7602244442 283.3780320144 165.9254195917 808 Million LE saved Counterfactual Actual Child Immunization Costs IMR Graph 120.8 120.14108 120 118.95372 108.5 117.76636 97 116.87584 97 115.68848 97 114.79796 92 113.6106 87 112.72008 82 111.82956 72 111.53272 62 110.6422 58 110.04852 56.8 110.04852 55.6 108.26748 54.4 106.78328 53.2 105.29908 52 102.62752 48 102.62752 44 101.44016 42 101.737 40 100.54964 38 99.65912 36.75 98.7686 35.5 97.87808 34.25 96.98756 33 95.8002 95.8 33 Actual Counterfactual Infant Mortality Rate Infant Deaths Graph 192767.92469404 187228.4032 195160.8259494 187562.64 197594.64042508 170988.405 200514.1779932801 154043.857 204813.1496648001 156599.225 209648.51167244 158785.799 213588.7232742 152311.152 216362.2483572 144392.508 218746.5592587601 136097.532 223232.06988368 119574.576 225036.9408552 102806.354 227743.2111696 95954.214 233808.20520384 91695.1936 233201.4393362401 89641.9896 233491.35899848 87506.752 233252.09877212 85264.8636 227307.02573248 84193.98 233530.25591776 79334.928 236795.21445344 74546.252 245758.847573 72946.65 249888.37851936 71231.32 254536.9665731201 67658.24 259441.9015790001 65350.87125 264469.41062432 62944.624 269523.0949242 57751.3225 274002.8462298001 55264.902 Cummulative deaths avoided: 3.1 million Counterfactual Actual Annual Infant Deaths Infant Deaths Averted Graph 1824631.8231640414 1337907.6507207996 1.8 million 1.3 million Due to Lower Risk Due to Fewer Births Infants Deaths Averted due to Lower Risk or Fewer Births 1980-2005 U5 deaths graph 269993.2768 315795.7560236 261024.674 319785.992046 241117.29 323846.4343772 220743.259 328687.5123151999 217140.1625 335812.292032 212805.71 343801.1796796 204185.24 350346.824478 193629.8 354961.287948 182569.86 358939.8109284 161923.905 366323.0390511999 140944.195 369355.077768 124078.725 373844.9396639999 117847.696 383800.7461055999 114470.886 382955.5296215999 110992.02 383561.2975831999 107382.441 383301.4501707999 105242.475 373775.0486431999 99995.0655 384008.2922383999 91488.582 389493.8989695999 89157.0166666667 404207.2005699999 86664.7726666667 411124.6417823999 81902.08 418870.5072608 79576.91125 427043.6931099999 77129.328 435424.4076687999 71240.6825 443854.2069780001 68662.454 451382.994882 Cummulative Deaths avoided: 6.1 million Actual Counterfactual Annual Under Five Deaths, 1980-2005 U5MR Graph 196.8172 174.2 194.9148 167 193.0124 153 191.5856 139 189.6832 134.5 188.2564 130 186.354 123.3333333333 184.9272 116.6666666667 183.5004 110 183.0248 97.5 181.598 85 180.6468 75 180.6468 73 177.7932 71 175.4152 69 173.0372 67 168.7568 65 168.7568 60.5 166.8544 54 167.33 51.3333333333 165.4276 48.6666666667 164.0008 46 162.574 44.75 161.1472 43.5 159.7204 42.25 157.818 41 157.8 41 Counterfactual Actual Under Five Mortality Rate Child Survival 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 64.3 60.9 54.5 47.9 41 IMR observed 124 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120 108.5 97 97 97 92 87 82 72 62 58 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52 48 44 42 40 38 35.4666666667 33.0666666667 30.6666666667 28.2666666667 Under-five mortality rate observed 203 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167 153 139 134.5 130 123.3333333333 116.6666666667 110 97.5 85 75 73 71 69 67 65 60.5 54 51.3333333333 48.6666666667 46 42.2222222222 38.8333333333 35.4444444444 32.0555555556 Counterfactual 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 TFR 5.60 5.57 5.53 5.50 5.47 5.43 5.39 5.36 5.32 5.29 5.25 5.22 5.19 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.13 5.07 5.02 4.97 4.88 4.88 4.84 4.85 4.81 4.78 4.75 4.72 4.69 4.65 Percent of births with any risk 62.8% 62.3% 61.7% 61.2% 60.7% 60.0% 59.4% 58.9% 58.2% 57.8% 57.1% 56.6% 56.1% 55.9% 55.5% 55.1% 55.1% 54.1% 53.3% 52.5% 51.0% 51.0% 50.4% 50.5% 49.9% 49.4% 48.9% 48.4% 47.9% 47.3% IMR 124.0 123.1 121.9 121.0 120.1 119.0 117.8 116.9 115.7 114.8 113.6 112.7 111.8 111.5 110.6 110.0 110.0 108.3 106.8 105.3 102.6 102.6 101.4 101.7 100.5 99.7 98.8 97.9 97.0 95.8 U5MR 203.0 201.6 199.7 198.2 196.8 194.9 193.0 191.6 189.7 188.3 186.4 184.9 183.5 183.0 181.6 180.6 180.6 177.8 175.4 173.0 168.8 168.8 166.9 167.3 165.4 164.0 162.6 161.1 159.7 157.8 Actual TFR 5.60 5.52 5.44 5.36 5.28 5.17 5.07 4.96 4.85 4.74 4.63 4.51 4.40 4.30 4.20 4.10 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.52 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.20 3.15 3.10 Percent of births with any risk 64.3% 60.9% 54.5% 47.9% 41.0% IMR 124.0 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120.0 108.5 97.0 97.0 97.0 92.0 87.0 82.0 72.0 62.0 58.0 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52.0 48.0 44.0 42.0 40.0 38.0 36.75 35.5 34.25 33 U5MR 203.0 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167.0 153.0 139.0 134.5 130.0 123.3 116.7 110.0 97.5 85.0 75.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 65.0 60.5 54.0 51.3 48.7 46.0 44.75 43.5 42.25 41 Infant Deaths Counterfactual 182,497 184,924 187,084 189,858 192,768 195,161 197,595 200,514 204,813 209,649 213,589 216,362 218,747 223,232 225,037 227,743 233,808 233,201 233,491 233,252 227,307 233,530 236,795 245,759 249,888 254,537 259,442 264,469 269,523 274,003 Actual 182,497 183,514 184,660 185,911 187,228 187,563 170,988 154,044 156,599 158,786 152,311 144,393 136,098 119,575 102,806 95,954 91,695 89,642 87,507 85,265 84,194 79,335 74,546 72,947 71,231 67,658 65,351 62,945 57,751 55,265 Deaths Averted 0 1,410 2,424 3,948 5,540 7,598 26,606 46,470 48,214 50,863 61,278 71,970 82,649 103,657 122,231 131,789 142,113 143,559 145,985 147,987 143,113 154,195 162,249 172,812 178,657 186,879 194,091 201,525 211,772 218,738 Cummulative Deaths Averted 0 5,540 13,138 39,744 86,214 134,428 185,291 246,568 318,538 401,187 504,845 627,075 758,864 900,977 1,044,537 1,190,521 1,338,509 1,481,622 1,635,817 1,798,066 1,970,878 2,149,535 2,336,414 2,530,505 2,732,030 2,943,802 3,162,539 Deaths Prevented 0 -135 -721 -869 -1,021 -1,635 14,603 31,564 30,171 29,135 35,778 42,687 49,509 65,654 80,657 86,108 85,962 84,914 84,263 83,500 81,972 90,289 97,317 103,753 107,826 109,783 110,285 110,602 105,786 105,171 Cummulative Deaths Prevented -1,021 -2,657 11,947 43,511 73,682 102,817 138,594 181,282 230,790 296,445 377,102 463,210 549,172 634,086 718,348 801,849 883,821 974,109 1,071,426 1,175,179 1,283,005 1,392,788 1,503,073 1,613,675 1,719,461 1,824,632 1,337,908 U5 deaths Counterfactual 298,765 302,785 306,386 310,979 315,796 319,786 323,846 328,688 335,812 343,801 350,347 354,961 358,940 366,323 369,355 373,845 383,801 382,956 383,561 383,301 373,775 384,008 389,494 404,207 411,125 418,871 427,044 435,424 443,854 451,383 Actual 298,765 291,655 284,533 277,337 269,993 261,025 241,117 220,743 217,140 212,806 204,185 193,630 182,570 161,924 140,944 124,079 117,848 114,471 110,992 107,382 105,242 99,995 91,489 89,157 86,665 81,902 79,577 77,129 71,241 68,662 Deaths Averted 0 11,129 21,853 33,642 45,802 58,761 82,729 107,944 118,672 130,995 146,162 161,331 176,370 204,399 228,411 249,766 265,953 268,485 272,569 275,919 268,533 284,013 298,005 315,050 324,460 336,968 347,467 358,295 372,614 382,721 Cummulative Deaths Averted 45,802 104,564 187,293 295,237 413,909 544,905 691,066 852,398 1,028,768 1,233,167 1,461,578 1,711,344 1,977,297 2,245,782 2,518,351 2,794,270 3,062,803 3,346,816 3,644,821 3,959,871 4,284,331 4,621,300 4,968,766 5,327,061 5,699,675 6,082,396 Deaths Prevented 0 8,600 16,702 25,752 35,054 43,631 63,057 83,510 89,089 95,364 104,334 113,291 121,991 142,036 160,176 174,780 173,780 172,179 171,177 169,948 167,994 178,928 191,202 201,466 207,926 210,098 209,521 208,599 198,075 195,634 Cummulative Deaths Prevented 35,054 78,686 141,743 225,253 314,342 409,706 514,040 627,331 749,321 891,357 1,051,533 1,226,313 1,400,093 1,572,272 1,743,450 1,913,398 2,081,392 2,260,320 2,451,522 2,652,988 2,860,914 3,071,012 3,280,533 3,489,132 3,687,207 3,882,841 Counterfactual High Risk births, IMR and U5MR Actuald on Ross model using Egypt parameters Maternal Deaths Graph 5134.4416 4959.6928 5209.047875 4962.59485 5285.23695 4964.1795 5361.303125 4962.753125 5488.1935 5004.7175 5615.684925 5033.673525 5734.02135 5049.4458 5806.381625 5020.5441 5868.213 4979.178 5374.01139 4459.13523 4820.38092 3929.85579 4252.7814 3399.757065 3696.79008 2808.97248 3505.534095 2623.962915 3312.685365 2436.9987 3106.7324475 2247.8190075 2857.18746 2088.65835 2679.4165575 1946.1849525 2486.06571 1804.358145 2300.8866225 1654.3258125 2087.58816 1495.85772 1952.591102 1361.17696 1809.841085 1225.217695 1461.3801027 958.9665853091 1203.4347638182 730.2035829091 930.3024642818 544.7170602364 17,000 mothers' lives saved Counterfactual Actual Annual Maternal Deaths cpr only graph 18.9 20.1 21.3 22.51 23.71 25.27 26.82 28.37 29.91 31.59 33.28 34.97 36.66 38.45 39.89 41.41 44.63 45.76 46.98 48.12 47.86 48.44 48.6 49.21 49.49 51 52.52 54.04 57.44 58.86 CPR CPR Change 1976-2005 TFR Only Change 5.6 5.52 5.44 5.36 5.28 5.17 5.07 4.96 4.85 4.74 4.63 4.51 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.52 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.15 3.1 TFR Change 1976-2005 CBA Summary Graph 3492.0002343916 45919.2776188733 Expenditure on FP Expenditure Saved LE (Millions) Expenditures on FP vs Expenditures Saved, 1980-2005 3,492 FP expend chart 1790.8798481838 1528.9629772351 172.1574089726 GOE Donor Sponsoring Agency and Client Pay LE (Million) Expenditure on FP 1980-2005 CBA Summary Cumulative costs and Benefits of Family Planning 1980-2005 Summary: Demographic Impacts Population Weak FP Actual Costs 1980-2005 (Millions LE) B/C Ratio Population in 2006 86,079,496 72,624,448 3,492 % Under 15 40.68 33.02 Expenditure Saved Doubling Time 24.4 40.6 Education 36,565 10.4710 Fertility Immunization 808 0.2313 TFR in 2003 4.72 3.20 Food subsidy 8,547 2.4476 Births Averted (1980-2005) 12,932,505 Water& Sanitation 314.72 0.0901 Mortality ((1980-2005) Total 45,919 13.1498 Infant deaths Averted 0 Infant Deaths Prevented 0 Under 5 deaths averted 0 Expenditure on FP Under 5 deaths prevented 0 (Millions LE) Maternal Deaths Averted 16,687 GOE 1,791 Donor 1,529 Sponsoring Agency and Client Pay 172 Total 3,492 13 Water&Sanitation 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Water and Sanitation Cost Percaptia 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 2.88 Water& Sanitation Counterfactual 105.47 108.40 111.41 114.51 117.72 121.04 124.47 128.02 131.74 135.62 139.67 143.84 148.11 152.52 157.03 161.65 166.42 171.28 176.25 181.30 186.36 191.60 197.00 202.64 208.47 214.51 220.74 227.19 233.86 240.76 0.00 (Millions LE) Actual 105.47 108.37 111.31 114.31 117.38 120.50 123.68 126.90 130.21 133.60 137.06 140.55 144.04 147.55 151.06 154.57 157.98 161.40 164.81 168.20 171.66 175.20 178.87 182.66 186.57 190.48 194.39 198.28 201.93 205.56 0.00 Difference 0.34 0.54 0.80 1.13 1.53 2.02 2.61 3.29 4.07 4.97 5.97 7.07 8.44 9.89 11.44 13.09 14.70 16.39 18.13 19.98 21.90 24.02 26.35 28.91 31.93 35.21 0.00 Cummulative Difference 0.34 0.87 1.67 2.80 4.33 6.35 8.96 12.26 16.33 21.30 27.27 34.34 42.78 52.67 64.11 77.20 91.90 108.29 126.42 146.40 168.31 192.33 218.68 247.59 279.51 314.72 314.72 POP 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Total Pop Counterfactual 36,620,500 37,638,416 38,682,612 39,760,252 40,875,140 42,028,036 43,219,940 44,452,580 45,742,308 47,090,820 48,497,004 49,943,660 51,428,408 52,959,552 54,524,780 56,127,360 57,785,148 59,473,820 61,196,736 62,950,384 64,707,848 66,526,096 68,403,264 70,360,376 72,386,480 74,480,984 76,646,312 78,884,864 81,201,704 83,598,088 86,079,496 Actual 36,620,500 37,627,280 38,648,716 39,691,228 40,757,816 41,841,732 42,942,748 44,061,240 45,210,748 46,388,224 47,590,588 48,800,556 50,014,376 51,232,848 52,452,244 53,671,464 54,855,720 56,040,516 57,224,108 58,404,464 59,602,928 60,835,060 62,108,156 63,423,040 64,781,168 66,140,032 67,496,448 68,847,368 70,116,312 71,373,520 72,624,448 Pop <=1 Counterfactual 1,042,081 1,332,086 1,367,417 1,404,695 1,443,733 1,482,856 1,523,140 1,564,227 1,621,183 1,679,574 1,736,480 1,778,446 1,817,907 1,865,718 1,901,516 1,940,440 1,997,646 2,030,847 2,067,327 2,100,086 2,105,601 2,168,415 2,229,457 2,311,791 2,383,223 2,454,209 2,528,658 2,605,843 2,686,105 2,769,607 2,858,348 Actual 1,042,081 1,320,956 1,344,428 1,369,058 1,394,596 1,412,698 1,430,616 1,447,945 1,478,367 1,505,502 1,529,165 1,537,750 1,542,494 1,548,096 1,550,227 1,551,225 1,517,894 1,520,130 1,520,843 1,519,478 1,539,234 1,575,021 1,618,114 1,662,167 1,707,694 1,710,862 1,711,839 1,709,970 1,629,838 1,621,679 1,618,837 Births Counterfactual 1,471,751 1,502,109 1,534,457 1,568,668 1,604,513 1,640,645 1,677,853 1,715,617 1,770,385 1,826,239 1,880,007 1,919,465 1,956,071 2,001,494 2,033,916 2,069,480 2,124,592 2,153,938 2,186,591 2,215,139 2,214,874 2,275,513 2,334,334 2,415,629 2,485,224 2,554,076 2,626,765 2,702,029 2,778,945 2,860,149 2,946,462 Actual 1,471,751 1,489,558 1,508,660 1,528,871 1,549,904 1,563,022 1,575,930 1,588,081 1,614,425 1,636,967 1,655,556 1,659,684 1,659,726 1,660,758 1,658,167 1,654,383 1,614,352 1,612,266 1,608,580 1,602,723 1,619,115 1,652,811 1,694,233 1,736,825 1,780,783 1,780,480 1,778,255 1,773,088 1,686,170 1,674,694 1,668,740 Difference 54,609 77,623 101,923 127,536 155,960 189,272 224,451 259,781 296,345 340,736 375,749 415,097 510,240 541,672 578,011 612,416 595,759 622,702 640,101 678,804 704,441 773,596 848,510 928,941 1,092,775 1,185,455 1,277,722 Cummulative 0 0 0 0 54,609 132,232 234,155 361,691 517,651 706,923 931,374 1,191,155 1,487,500 1,828,236 2,203,985 2,619,082 3,129,322 3,670,994 4,249,005 4,861,421 5,457,180 6,079,882 6,719,983 7,398,787 8,103,228 8,876,824 9,725,334 10,654,275 11,747,050 12,932,505 14,210,227 TFR Counterfactual 5.60 5.57 5.53 5.50 5.47 5.43 5.39 5.36 5.32 5.29 5.25 5.22 5.19 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.13 5.07 5.02 4.97 4.88 4.88 4.84 4.85 4.81 4.78 4.75 4.72 4.69 4.65 4.61 Actual 5.60 5.52 5.44 5.36 5.28 5.17 5.07 4.96 4.85 4.74 4.63 4.51 4.40 4.30 4.20 4.10 3.90 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.52 3.50 3.40 3.30 3.20 3.15 3.10 3.05 Pop 6-10 Counterfactual 4,723,072 4,672,476 4,666,664 4,706,637 4,778,088 4,858,931 491623400.00% 5,238,234 5,575,422 5,932,518 6,319,758 6,758,667 6,960,562 7,168,345 7,395,541 7,641,839 7,905,133 8,169,642 8,432,043 8,685,078 8,915,665 9,128,732 9,356,918 9,578,975 9,789,960 9,997,822 10,172,183 10,351,556 10,557,624 10,808,366 11,096,766 Actual 4,723,072 4,672,476 4,666,664 4,706,637 4,778,088 4,858,931 4,916,234 5,227,567 5,542,677 5,865,479 6,205,341 6,576,451 6,699,353 6,816,264 6,938,742 7,062,660 7,191,249 7,309,909 7,415,373 7,495,745 7,550,923 7,583,560 7,574,546 7,562,683 7,545,653 7,524,715 7,521,684 7,586,088 7,690,144 7,836,413 8,028,553 Pop 11-13 Counterfactual 2,987,300 2,983,895 2,929,853 2,856,177 2,792,775 2,759,062 276165400.00% 2,792,540 2,844,030 2,902,024 2,954,643 2,974,670 3,254,662 3,561,011 3,916,949 4,035,359 4,157,604 4,282,929 4,410,507 4,555,566 4,718,333 4,896,072 5,058,801 5,202,633 5,337,555 5,466,422 5,594,782 5,732,543 5,867,834 6,000,708 6,109,429 Actual 2,987,300 2,983,895 2,929,853 2,856,177 2,792,775 2,759,062 2,761,654 2,792,540 2,844,030 2,902,024 2,954,643 2,974,670 3,244,060 3,528,457 3,850,284 3,932,118 4,008,769 4,078,910 4,141,152 4,215,228 4,298,073 4,386,413 4,452,833 4,496,736 4,522,689 4,542,038 4,557,466 4,534,443 4,511,325 4,487,646 4,495,004 Pop 14-16 Counterfactual 2,661,752 2,795,057 2,907,666 2,969,039 2,966,374 2,913,341 284074400.00% 2,778,322 2,745,415 2,748,629 2,780,006 2,831,856 2,890,152 2,943,057 2,963,491 3,243,006 3,548,869 3,904,097 4,022,723 4,145,209 4,270,802 4,398,656 4,543,956 4,706,889 4,884,749 5,047,629 5,191,665 5,326,828 5,456,004 5,584,692 5,722,795 Actual 2,661,752 2,795,057 2,907,666 2,969,039 2,966,374 2,913,341 2,840,744 2,778,322 2,745,415 2,748,629 2,780,006 2,831,856 2,890,152 2,943,057 2,963,491 3,232,440 3,516,422 3,837,644 3,919,800 3,996,811 4,067,353 4,130,015 4,204,476 4,287,640 4,376,259 4,442,988 4,487,247 4,513,589 4,533,372 4,549,239 4,526,719 CPR Counterfactual 18.90 19.40 19.91 20.41 20.91 21.42 21.92 22.42 22.93 23.43 23.93 24.44 24.94 25.44 25.95 26.45 26.95 27.46 27.96 28.46 28.97 29.47 29.97 30.48 30.98 31.48 31.99 32.49 32.99 33.50 34.00 Actual 18.90 20.10 21.30 22.51 23.71 25.27 26.82 28.37 29.91 31.59 33.28 34.97 36.66 38.45 39.89 41.41 44.63 45.76 46.98 48.12 47.86 48.44 48.60 49.21 49.49 51.00 52.52 54.04 57.44 58.86 60.10 CYP Counterfactual 1,048,413 1,109,992 1,175,366 1,242,143 1,504,264 1,590,397 1,675,109 1,759,983 1,777,579 1,857,221 1,940,613 2,028,199 2,163,639 2,271,127 2,388,403 2,555,012 2,516,713 2,654,908 2,783,367 2,839,621 2,968,719 3,297,543 3,018,331 3,135,153 3,349,070 3,487,863 3,643,182 3,931,791 4,114,011 4,302,365 4,502,985 Actual 1,082,725 1,184,476 1,292,638 1,404,695 1,769,301 1,948,988 2,130,537 2,315,470 2,429,615 2,622,415 2,824,068 3,035,493 3,338,358 3,543,017 3,802,610 4,463,131 4,218,200 4,488,016 4,714,162 4,505,023 4,784,452 5,164,485 4,736,180 4,789,585 5,352,211 5,601,161 5,879,454 6,862,964 6,868,954 7,131,923 7,447,798 Cost/CYP 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 36.00 Annual FP Cost Counterfactual 37.74 39.96 42.31 44.72 54.15 57.25 60.30 63.36 63.99 66.86 69.86 73.02 77.89 81.76 85.98 91.98 90.60 95.58 100.20 102.23 106.87 118.71 108.66 112.87 120.57 125.56 131.15 141.54 148.10 154.89 162.11 millions LE Actual 38.98 42.64 46.53 50.57 63.69 70.16 76.70 83.36 87.47 94.41 101.67 109.28 120.18 127.55 136.89 160.67 151.86 161.57 169.71 162.18 172.24 185.92 170.50 172.43 192.68 201.64 211.66 247.07 247.28 256.75 268.12 Cummulative Actual 39 82 128 179 242 313 389 473 560 655 756 865 986 1,113 1,250 1,411 1,563 1,724 1,894 2,056 2,228 2,414 2,585 2,757 2,950 3,151 3,363 3,610 3,857 4,114 4,382 Difference 9.54 12.91 16.40 20.00 23.47 27.55 31.80 36.26 42.29 45.79 50.91 68.69 61.25 65.99 69.51 59.95 65.37 67.21 61.84 59.56 72.11 76.08 80.51 105.52 99.18 101.86 106.01 Cummulative 9.54 22.45 38.85 58.84 82.32 109.86 141.67 177.93 220.22 266.01 316.92 385.61 446.87 512.86 582.37 642.32 707.69 774.90 836.74 896.30 968.41 1,044.49 1,125.00 1,230.52 1,329.70 1,431.56 1,537.57 2,987,300.00 36,620,500 2,983,895.00 37,627,280 2,929,853 1,082,725 38,648,716 2,856,177 1,184,476 39,691,228 2,792,775 1,292,638 40,757,816 2,759,062 1,404,695 41,841,732 2,761,654 1,769,301 42,942,748 2,792,540 1,948,988 44,061,240 2,844,030 2,130,537 45,210,748 2,902,024 2,315,470 46,335,820 2,954,643 2,429,615 47,438,488 2,974,670 2,622,415 48,549,556 3,244,060 2,824,068 49,764,856 3,528,457 3,035,493 50,984,080 3,850,284 3,338,358 52,204,052 3,932,118 3,543,017 53,423,736 4,008,769 3,802,610 54,608,348 4,078,910 4,463,131 55,793,340 4,141,152 4,218,200 56,977,112 4,215,228 4,488,016 58,157,640 4,298,073 4,714,162 59,356,272 4,386,413 4,505,023 60,588,588 4,452,833 4,784,452 61,861,872 4,496,736 5,164,485 63,176,936 4,522,689 4,736,180 64,534,000 4,542,038 4,789,585 65,889,544 4,557,466 5,352,211 67,240,536 4,534,443 5,601,161 68,586,224 4,511,325 5,879,454 69,850,328 4,487,646 6,862,964 71,099,872 4,495,004 6,868,954 72,337,816 7,131,923 7,447,798 Summary Summary Demographic Indicators - Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Egypt76conterfactual Fertility Input TFR 6 6 6 6 5 5.43 5 5 5 5.29 5.25 5.22 5.19 5.18 5.15 5.13 5.13 5.07 5.02 4.97 4.88 4.88 4.84 4.85 4.81 4.78 4.75 4.72 4.69 4.65 4.61 GRR 3 3 3 3 3 2.65 3 3 3 2.58 2.56 2.55 2.53 2.53 2.51 2.5 2.5 2.47 2.45 2.42 2.38 2.38 2.36 2.36 2.35 2.33 2.32 2.3 2.29 2.27 2.25 NRR 2 2 2 2 2 2.22 2 2 2 2.23 2.23 2.23 2.24 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.27 2.25 2.24 2.23 2.2 2.21 2.21 2.22 2.21 2.2 2.2 2.19 2.18 2.17 2.16 Mean Age of Childbearing 29 29 29 29 29 29.2 29 29 29 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28 27.9 28 28.1 28.1 28 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 Child-woman ratio 1 1 1 1 1 0.69 1 1 1 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.7 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 Fertility table: Custom Mortality Male LE 53 54 54 55 56 56.6 57 58 59 60 61 61 61.4 61.9 62.3 62.8 63.3 63.7 64.2 64.6 65.1 65.5 65.9 66.3 66.7 67.1 67.5 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.2 Female LE 58 58 59 59 60 60.6 61 62 62 63 64 64 64.7 65.2 65.8 66.4 66.9 67.4 68 68.5 69 69.5 70 70.5 71 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.8 73.2 73.6 Total LE 55 56 57 57 58 58.6 59 60 61 61 62 63 63 63.5 64.1 64.6 65.1 65.6 66 66.5 67 67.5 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.3 69.7 70.1 70.6 71 71.4 IMR 117 113 109 104 100 95.8 92 88 84 80 76 73 70.4 67.6 64.9 62.2 59.6 57 54.4 51.8 49.3 47 44.9 42.9 41 39.1 37.3 35.6 33.4 31.6 29.9 U5MR 154 148 142 136 130 123.9 118 113 107 101 96 92 87.5 83.6 79.9 76.1 72.6 69 65.4 61.9 58.3 55.3 52.5 50.1 47.7 45.3 43.2 41 38.3 36.2 34 Life table: Coale-Demeny East Immigration Male immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Female immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Vital Rates CBR per 1000 40 40 40 40 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 38 38 37.8 37.3 36.9 36.8 36.2 35.7 35.2 34.2 34.2 34.1 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.2 34.2 CDR per 1000 13 13 13 12 12 11.6 11 11 11 10 10 10 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.2 6 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 RNI percent 3 3 3 3 3 2.74 3 3 3 3 3 3 2.89 2.89 2.87 2.86 2.87 2.84 2.82 2.79 2.72 2.73 2.74 2.78 2.8 2.81 2.83 2.84 2.85 2.87 2.88 GR percent 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2.89 2.89 2.87 2.86 2.87 2.84 2.82 2.79 2.72 2.73 2.74 2.78 2.8 2.81 2.83 2.84 2.85 2.87 2.88 Doubling time 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 24 24 24.4 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.5 24.8 25 25.2 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.1 25 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.4 Annual births and deaths (Millions) Births 1.47 1.5 1.53 1.57 1.6 2 1.68 1.72 1.77 2 2 2 1.96 2 2.03 2.07 2.12 2.15 2.19 2.22 2.21 2.28 2.33 2.42 2.49 2.55 2.63 2.7 2.78 2.86 2.95 Deaths 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.48 0.48 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.46 0.47 Population (Millions) Total population 37 38 39 39.76 41 42.03 43 44 46 47.09 48.5 49.94 51.43 52.96 54.52 56.13 57.79 59.47 61.2 62.95 64.71 66.53 68.4 70.36 72.39 74.48 76.65 78.88 81.2 83.6 86.08 Male population 19 19 20 20.19 21 21.32 22 23 23 23.86 24.56 25.29 26.04 26.81 27.6 28.41 29.24 30.09 30.96 31.84 32.73 33.64 34.59 35.58 36.59 37.65 38.74 39.87 41.04 42.25 43.5 Female population 18 18 19 19.57 20 20.71 21 22 23 23.24 23.93 24.65 25.39 26.15 26.92 27.72 28.54 29.38 30.24 31.11 31.98 32.88 33.81 34.79 35.79 36.83 37.91 39.02 40.16 41.35 42.58 Percent 0-4 14 14 15 15.25 16 16.38 16 16 16 16.45 16.51 16.56 16.58 16.57 16.51 16.41 16.33 16.23 16.11 15.99 15.82 15.65 15.52 15.44 15.4 15.44 15.47 15.51 15.54 15.56 15.58 Percent 5-14 26 25 25 24.04 23 22.75 23 23 23 23.69 24.03 24.38 24.74 25.13 25.57 26.09 26.15 26.2 26.24 26.27 26.29 26.32 26.3 26.23 26.1 25.89 25.69 25.5 25.35 25.21 25.1 Percent 15-49 47 48 48 48.13 48 48.37 48 48 48 47.36 46.98 46.61 46.26 45.93 45.6 45.26 45.38 45.53 45.71 45.89 46.09 46.26 46.41 46.55 46.71 46.88 47.06 47.21 47.35 47.46 47.51 Percent 15-64 56 57 57 56.82 57 56.88 57 57 56 56.14 55.76 55.34 54.9 54.44 54 53.54 53.55 53.6 53.68 53.79 53.93 54.06 54.17 54.29 54.43 54.58 54.73 54.86 54.99 55.11 55.21 Percent 65 and over 4 4 4 3.9 4 3.98 4 4 4 3.71 3.69 3.72 3.78 3.86 3.92 3.96 3.98 3.97 3.96 3.96 3.96 3.98 4.01 4.04 4.07 4.09 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.12 4.11 Percent females 15-49 48 48 48 48.15 48 48.25 48 48 47 47 46.6 46.22 45.88 45.56 45.25 44.91 45.03 45.19 45.35 45.53 45.72 45.88 46.01 46.14 46.28 46.43 46.58 46.71 46.83 46.93 47 Sex ratio 104 104 103 103.18 103 102.93 103 103 103 102.67 102.64 102.62 102.58 102.55 102.52 102.48 102.45 102.42 102.39 102.37 102.34 102.32 102.3 102.27 102.24 102.22 102.2 102.18 102.17 102.17 102.17 Dependency ratio 1 1 1 0.76 1 0.76 1 1 1 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 0.85 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.81 Median age 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Urban population 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rural population 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent urban 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent rural 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Summary Demographic Indicators - Total 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Egypt76base-2 Fertility Input TFR 5.6 5.52 5.44 5.36 5.28 5.17 5.07 4.96 4.85 4.74 4.63 4.51 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.58 3.56 3.54 3.52 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 2.96 2.86 2.77 GRR 2.73 2.69 2.65 2.61 2.58 2.52 2.47 2.42 2.37 2.31 2.26 2.2 2.15 2.1 2.05 2 1.9 1.85 1.8 1.76 1.75 1.74 1.73 1.72 1.71 1.66 1.61 1.56 1.44 1.4 1.35 NRR 2.21 2.2 2.18 2.16 2.15 2.12 2.09 2.06 2.03 2 1.97 1.93 1.9 1.87 1.83 1.8 1.72 1.69 1.65 1.62 1.62 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.57 1.52 1.48 1.38 1.33 1.3 Mean Age of Childbearing 29 29 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.1 28 27.9 28 28.1 28.1 28 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 Child-woman ratio 0.59 0.61 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.61 0.59 0.57 0.56 0.54 0.52 0.51 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.49 0.49 0.48 0.47 0.45 0.44 Fertility table: Custom Mortality Male LE 52.7 53.5 54.3 55 55.8 56.6 57.4 58.2 58.9 59.7 60.5 61 61.4 61.9 62.3 62.8 63.3 63.7 64.2 64.6 65.1 65.5 65.9 66.3 66.7 67.1 67.5 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.2 Female LE 57.7 58.3 58.9 59.4 60 60.6 61.2 61.8 62.3 62.9 63.5 64.1 64.7 65.2 65.8 66.4 66.9 67.4 68 68.5 69 69.5 70 70.5 71 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.8 73.2 73.6 Total LE 55.2 55.8 56.5 57.2 57.9 58.6 59.3 59.9 60.6 61.3 62 62.5 63 63.5 64.1 64.6 65.1 65.6 66 66.5 67 67.5 67.9 68.4 68.8 69.3 69.7 70.1 70.6 71 71.4 IMR 117.2 112.8 108.5 104.2 99.9 95.8 91.9 87.9 84 80 76.1 73.2 70.4 67.6 64.9 62.2 59.6 57 54.4 51.8 49.2 47 44.9 42.9 41 39.1 37.3 35.6 33.4 31.7 29.9 U5MR 154.3 148.1 142 135.8 129.6 123.9 118.2 112.6 106.9 101.3 95.6 91.5 87.5 83.6 79.9 76.1 72.6 69 65.4 61.9 58.3 55.3 52.5 50.1 47.7 45.3 43.2 41 38.3 36.2 34 Life table: Coale-Demeny East Immigration Male immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Female immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total immigration 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Vital Rates CBR per 1000 40.2 39.6 39 38.5 38 37.4 36.7 36 35.7 35.3 34.8 34 33.2 32.4 31.6 30.8 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 26.9 26.3 25.8 24 23.5 23 CDR per 1000 13.1 12.8 12.6 12.3 11.9 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.2 6.1 6 5.8 5.8 RNI percent 2.71 2.68 2.64 2.63 2.62 2.59 2.56 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.53 2.48 2.43 2.38 2.32 2.27 2.16 2.11 2.07 2.02 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.07 2.1 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.81 1.76 1.72 GR percent 2.71 2.68 2.64 2.63 2.62 2.59 2.56 2.54 2.54 2.54 2.53 2.48 2.43 2.38 2.32 2.27 2.16 2.11 2.07 2.02 2.01 2.03 2.05 2.07 2.1 2.05 2.01 1.96 1.81 1.76 1.72 Doubling time 25.9 26.2 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.9 29.5 30.2 30.9 32.5 33.1 33.9 34.6 34.8 34.6 34.2 33.8 33.4 34.1 34.8 35.7 38.6 39.7 40.6 Annual births and deaths Births 1,471,751 1,489,558 1,508,660 1,528,871 1,549,904 1,563,022 1,575,930 1,588,081 1,614,425 1,636,967 1,655,556 1,659,684 1,659,726 1,660,758 1,658,167 1,654,383 1,614,352 1,612,266 1,608,580 1,602,723 1,619,115 1,652,811 1,694,233 1,736,825 1,780,783 1,780,480 1,778,255 1,773,088 1,686,170 1,674,694 1,668,740 Deaths 478,240 482,708 487,234 486,361 483,308 479,106 474,910 469,597 464,920 459,482 453,197 449,715 445,909 442,289 438,766 435,170 430,092 427,467 424,986 422,367 420,652 420,676 421,140 421,941 422,654 421,626 421,824 422,166 417,241 417,477 417,806 Population Total population 36,620,500 37,627,280 38,648,716 39,691,228 40,757,816 41,841,732 42,942,748 44,061,240 45,210,748 46,388,224 47,590,588 48,800,556 50,014,376 51,232,848 52,452,244 53,671,464 54,855,720 56,040,516 57,224,108 58,404,464 59,602,928 60,835,060 62,108,156 63,423,040 64,781,168 66,140,032 67,496,448 68,847,368 70,116,312 71,373,520 72,624,448 Male population 18,644,700 19,138,870 19,641,738 20,156,618 20,685,066 21,223,642 21,772,154 22,330,868 22,906,712 23,498,176 24,103,722 24,712,438 25,322,278 25,933,788 26,545,282 27,156,230 27,749,284 28,342,560 28,935,214 29,526,190 30,126,354 30,743,234 31,380,354 32,038,352 32,717,968 33,397,524 34,076,068 34,752,100 35,386,624 36,015,460 36,641,332 Female population 17,975,700 18,488,422 19,006,982 19,534,606 20,072,752 20,618,092 21,170,598 21,730,368 22,304,034 22,890,048 23,486,868 24,088,120 24,692,098 25,299,058 25,906,966 26,515,230 27,106,432 27,697,952 28,288,898 28,878,276 29,476,572 30,091,828 30,727,804 31,384,684 32,063,200 32,742,498 33,420,382 34,095,280 34,729,688 35,358,068 35,983,124 Percent 0-4 13.77 14.24 14.68 15.1 15.53 16.01 15.87 15.72 15.58 15.44 15.31 15.16 14.99 14.78 14.54 14.26 13.92 13.6 13.28 12.97 12.7 12.54 12.45 12.42 12.45 12.46 12.41 12.3 12.04 11.71 11.38 Percent 5-14 26.18 25.49 24.78 24.08 23.44 22.85 22.98 23.21 23.49 23.81 24.11 24.4 24.67 24.95 25.25 25.61 25.5 25.36 25.19 24.99 24.76 24.44 24.09 23.69 23.25 22.82 22.44 22.13 21.92 21.77 21.64 Percent 15-49 47.39 47.59 47.89 48.22 48.46 48.59 48.58 48.48 48.29 48.08 47.88 47.7 47.57 47.47 47.41 47.33 47.78 48.26 48.76 49.27 49.74 50.15 50.5 50.83 51.13 51.45 51.77 52.08 52.42 52.73 52.98 Percent 15-64 56.47 56.6 56.76 56.92 57.05 57.14 57.18 57.18 57.11 56.99 56.83 56.64 56.45 56.28 56.13 55.99 56.39 56.83 57.29 57.78 58.25 58.67 59.05 59.41 59.76 60.12 60.49 60.84 61.26 61.69 62.11 Percent 65 and over 3.58 3.67 3.79 3.9 3.98 4 3.96 3.9 3.82 3.77 3.76 3.81 3.89 3.99 4.08 4.14 4.19 4.22 4.24 4.26 4.3 4.35 4.41 4.48 4.54 4.6 4.66 4.72 4.78 4.83 4.87 Percent females 15-49 47.74 47.8 47.99 48.23 48.41 48.46 48.39 48.21 47.97 47.71 47.48 47.3 47.17 47.09 47.03 46.95 47.4 47.87 48.36 48.85 49.3 49.69 50.02 50.33 50.61 50.9 51.18 51.44 51.75 52.04 52.31 Sex ratio 103.72 103.52 103.34 103.18 103.05 102.94 102.84 102.76 102.7 102.66 102.63 102.59 102.55 102.51 102.46 102.42 102.37 102.33 102.28 102.24 102.2 102.16 102.12 102.08 102.04 102 101.96 101.93 101.89 101.86 101.83 Dependency ratio 0.77 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.77 0.76 0.75 0.73 0.72 0.7 0.69 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.65 0.64 0.63 0.62 0.61 Median age 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 23 23 23 Urban population 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Rural population 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent urban 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Percent rural 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Demo Trans Zanaty& Robinson, Table 3.3 CBR CDR Year CBR CDR Growth Rate Actual Counterfacual CBR Actual CDR CBR Weak FP CDR 1900 45.7 34 1.1 1900 45.7 34 45.7 34 1910 44 34.4 0.9 1910 44 34.4 44 34.4 1920 44.1 37.7 0.6 1920 44.1 37.7 44.1 37.7 1930 44.6 29.9 1.5 1930 44.6 29.9 44.6 29.9 1940 46.1 30.4 1.6 1940 46.1 30.4 46.1 30.4 1950 48.7 22.1 2.7 1950 48.7 22.1 48.7 22.1 1960 46.6 19.3 2.7 1960 46.6 19.3 46.6 19.3 1965 45.4 14.7 3.1 1965 45.4 14.7 45.4 14.7 1970 38.2 16.4 2.4 1976 40.2 13.1 40 13 1975 39 12.8 2.7 1977 39.5 12.8 40 13 1980 37.5 10 2.7 1978 38.9 12.6 40 13 1985 39.8 9.4 3 1979 38.4 12.2 40 12 1990 32.5 7.5 2.5 1980 37.8 11.8 39 12 1991 31 7.6 2.3 1981 37.2 11.4 39 11.6 1992 29.2 7.4 2.2 1982 36.5 11 39 11 1993 28.7 7.4 2 1983 35.9 10.6 39 11 1994 28.9 6.7 2.2 1984 35.6 10.3 39 11 1995 27.7 7 2.1 1985 34.1 9.8 39 10 1996 27.6 6.2 2.1 1986 32.6 9.4 39 10 1997 26.6 6.6 2 1987 32 9.1 38 10 1988 31.3 8.8 38 9.2 1989 30.7 8.5 37.8 8.9 1990 29.8 8.3 37.3 8.6 1991 29.1 8 36.9 8.3 1992 28.5 7.8 36.8 8.1 1993 27.7 7.6 36.2 7.8 1994 26.9 7.4 35.7 7.6 1995 26.1 7.2 35.2 7.3 1996 24.9 7 34.2 7.1 1997 24.4 6.9 34.2 6.9 1998 24.4 6.8 34.1 6.7 1999 24.5 6.7 34.3 6.5 2000 24.5 6.5 34.3 6.3 2001 24 6.4 34.3 6.2 2002 23.6 6.3 34.3 6 2003 23.1 6.2 34.3 5.9 2004 23.3 6.1 34.2 5.7 2005 23.5 6 34.2 5.5 2006 23.6 6 34.2 5.4 Education 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 GER -Primary 81.48 82.16 82.85 83.54 84.23 84.92 85.61 86.29 86.98 85.40 88.36 89.05 89.74 90.42 91.50 91.80 92.49 93.18 93.86 99.80 95.24 95.93 96.62 97.31 96.60 98.68 97.40 100.06 100.75 101.44 102.12 GER- Preparatory 49.44 50.87 52.31 53.75 55.18 56.62 58.05 59.49 60.93 61.40 63.80 65.23 66.67 68.11 70.80 70.98 72.41 73.85 75.29 76.50 78.16 79.59 81.03 82.47 85.30 85.34 85.30 88.21 89.65 91.08 92.52 GER Secondary 49.44 50.87 52.31 53.75 55.18 56.62 58.05 59.49 60.93 61.40 63.80 65.23 66.67 68.11 70.80 70.98 72.41 73.85 75.29 76.50 78.16 79.59 81.03 82.47 85.30 85.34 85.30 88.21 89.65 91.08 92.52 Enrolment Primary Counterfactual $3,848,192 $3,839,126 $3,866,468 $3,931,980 $4,024,555 $4,126,090 $4,208,585 $4,520,288 $4,849,633 $5,066,370 $5,584,064 $6,018,394 $6,246,081 $6,481,871 $6,766,920 $7,015,208 $7,311,318 $7,612,184 $7,914,712 $8,667,708 $8,491,384 $8,757,139 $9,040,434 $9,320,906 $9,457,101 $9,866,086 $9,907,706 $10,357,645 $10,636,496 $10,963,498 $11,332,409 Actual $3,848,192 $3,839,126 $3,866,468 $3,931,980 $4,024,555 $4,126,090 $4,208,585 $4,511,083 $4,821,151 $5,009,119 $5,482,966 $5,856,136 $6,011,684 $6,163,506 $6,348,949 $6,483,522 $6,651,059 $6,811,115 $6,960,418 $7,480,754 $7,191,588 $7,274,864 $7,318,348 $7,358,935 $7,289,101 $7,425,566 $7,326,120 $7,590,550 $7,747,594 $7,948,889 $8,199,042 Enrolment Preparatory Counterfactual $1,476,847 $1,518,013 $1,532,592 $1,535,068 $1,541,096 $1,562,113 $1,603,238 $1,661,270 $1,732,741 $1,781,843 $1,884,990 $1,940,483 $2,169,869 $2,425,247 $2,773,200 $2,864,200 $3,010,670 $3,162,926 $3,320,477 $3,485,008 $3,687,736 $3,896,960 $4,099,127 $4,290,383 $4,552,934 $4,664,915 $4,772,349 $5,056,655 $5,260,257 $5,465,543 $5,652,300 Actual $1,476,847 $1,518,013 $1,532,592 $1,535,068 $1,541,096 $1,562,113 $1,603,238 $1,661,270 $1,732,741 $1,781,843 $1,884,990 $1,940,483 $2,162,801 $2,403,076 $2,726,001 $2,790,922 $2,902,894 $3,012,258 $3,117,691 $3,224,649 $3,359,271 $3,491,304 $3,608,113 $3,708,261 $3,857,854 $3,876,067 $3,887,518 $3,999,816 $4,044,206 $4,087,422 $4,158,672 Enrolment Secondary Counterfactual 1,315,904 1,421,944 1,520,987 1,595,726 1,636,891 1,649,462 1,649,153 1,652,811 1,672,659 1,687,658 1,773,576 1,847,321 1,926,852 2,004,386 2,098,152 2,301,807 2,569,863 2,883,160 3,028,531 3,171,085 3,337,957 3,501,049 3,681,950 3,881,565 4,166,691 4,307,527 4,428,490 4,698,776 4,891,070 5,086,629 5,294,595 Actual 1,315,904 1,421,944 1,520,987 1,595,726 1,636,891 1,649,462 1,649,153 1,652,811 1,672,659 1,687,658 1,773,576 1,847,321 1,926,852 2,004,386 2,098,152 2,294,308 2,546,367 2,834,085 2,951,045 3,057,560 3,178,946 3,287,228 3,406,871 3,535,829 3,732,949 3,791,541 3,827,622 3,981,420 4,063,970 4,143,522 4,188,014 Cost per Student Primary 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 793 Preparatory 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 880 Scondary 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 1296 Ed Cost Counterfactual 6,057 6,223 6,386 6,537 6,669 6,784 6,886 7,189 7,538 7,773 8,386 8,874 9,360 9,872 10,526 11,067 11,778 12,556 13,123 14,050 14,305 14,911 15,548 16,198 16,906 17,511 17,796 18,753 19,403 20,096 20,822 (millions) Actual 6,057 6,223 6,386 6,537 6,669 6,784 6,886 7,181 7,516 7,727 8,305 8,746 9,168 9,600 10,153 10,571 11,129 11,725 12,088 12,733 12,779 13,102 13,394 13,681 14,013 14,213 14,191 14,699 14,970 15,270 15,589 Savings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 23 45 80 129 192 272 373 496 649 831 1,036 1,317 1,526 1,810 2,154 2,516 2,893 3,298 3,605 4,054 4,433 4,826 5,233 Cummuative Savings 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 30 75 155 284 476 748 1,121 1,617 2,266 3,097 4,133 5,450 6,976 8,786 10,940 13,456 16,349 19,648 23,252 27,306 31,739 36,565 41,798 Scott Moreland: Unit costs from Chao CBA Immunization Immunization Rate for under 2's 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Coverage 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 7.6 11.0 14.5 17.9 21.3 24.7 28.2 31.6 35.0 38.4 41.8 45.3 67.4 70.8 74.2 79.1 82.5 85.9 89.4 92.8 92.2 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6 95.6 Pop Immunized Counterfactual 43,655 55,804 57,285 58,846 109,907 163,649 220,238 279,729 345,415 415,354 488,874 561,572 636,267 716,873 795,724 878,442 1,346,413 1,438,315 1,534,925 1,661,168 1,737,614 1,863,684 1,992,471 2,145,196 2,197,332 2,346,798 2,417,989 2,491,796 2,568,545 2,648,393 2,733,250 Actual 43,655 55,338 56,322 57,353 106,166 155,907 206,860 258,935 314,986 372,307 430,508 485,569 539,873 594,831 648,721 702,243 1,023,061 1,076,608 1,129,178 1,201,907 1,270,228 1,353,681 1,446,112 1,542,386 1,574,494 1,635,985 1,636,919 1,635,132 1,558,507 1,550,705 1,547,987 Unit Cost Projected 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 47.8 52.2 59.8 66.4 67.0 67.6 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.8 67.8 78.2 92.4 107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 107.0 Immunizaton Cost(Millions LE) Counterfactual 2.09 2.67 2.74 2.81 5.26 7.83 10.53 13.38 16.52 19.87 23.38 26.86 30.43 37.42 47.61 58.33 90.27 97.17 104.09 112.70 117.78 126.30 135.09 145.44 171.83 216.84 258.72 266.62 274.83 283.38 292.46 Actual 2.09 2.65 2.69 2.74 5.08 7.46 9.89 12.38 15.07 17.81 20.59 23.22 25.82 31.05 38.81 46.63 68.59 72.73 76.58 81.54 86.10 91.74 98.05 104.57 123.13 151.16 175.15 174.96 166.76 165.93 165.63 Savings 0.18 0.37 0.64 0.99 1.46 2.06 2.79 3.64 4.61 6.37 8.80 11.70 21.68 24.44 27.52 31.16 31.68 34.56 37.04 40.87 48.71 65.68 83.57 91.66 108.07 117.45 126.82 0.18 0.55 1.19 2.18 3.64 5.70 8.49 12.12 16.74 23.11 31.90 43.60 65.28 89.72 117.23 148.39 180.07 214.63 251.68 292.55 341.25 406.93 490.51 582.17 690.24 807.70 934.52 Note: Cost Actuald on Madagascar PEV Model (obtained from John Snow Inc.) Measles coverage Actuald on United Nations Statistic Division (UNSD), Millenium Indicators DataActual Population age 1 and under Actuald on Spectrum Food 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Per Capita Food Subsidy 7.68 9.12 11.71 25.12 26.86 42.5221403359 38.3068172535 46.6282837251 38.8182031405 32.3142356129 23.7294819724 16.8952993077 30.4312504069 32.1941891655 50.2609573768 44.2525659445 43.3026856634 38.8219123464 43.3715803836 59.517710838 52.4588322238 48.7432740265 41.7030574857 42.7305282118 47.4968280905 53.3322995671 62.3988391211 106.6809118978 165.4393916212 165.44 Food Subsidy Cost Counterfactual 281.40 343.32 452.87 998.84 1,098.00 1,787.12 1,655.62 2,072.75 1,775.63 1,521.70 1,150.81 843.81 1,565.03 1,704.99 2,740.47 2,483.78 2,502.25 2,308.89 2,654.20 3,746.66 3,394.50 3,242.70 2,852.63 3,006.54 3,438.13 3,972.24 4,782.64 8,415.51 13,433.96 13,830.42 0.00 (Millions LE) Actual 281.40 343.22 452.47 997.10 1,094.85 1,779.20 1,645.00 2,054.50 1,755.00 1,499.00 1,129.30 824.50 1,522.00 1,649.40 2,636.30 2,375.10 2,375.40 2,175.60 2,481.90 3,476.10 3,126.70 2,965.30 2,590.10 2,710.10 3,076.90 3,527.40 4,211.70 7,344.70 11,600.00 11,807.99 0.00 Difference 3.15 7.92 10.62 18.25 20.63 22.70 21.51 19.31 43.03 55.59 104.17 108.68 126.85 133.29 172.30 270.56 267.80 277.40 262.53 296.44 361.23 444.84 570.94 1,070.81 1,833.96 2,022.43 0.00 Cummulative Difference 3.15 11.07 21.69 39.94 60.57 83.28 104.79 124.10 167.13 222.72 326.89 435.57 562.42 695.71 868.01 1,138.57 1,406.37 1,683.77 1,946.29 2,242.73 2,603.96 3,048.80 3,619.74 4,690.55 6,524.51 8,546.93 8,546.93 MMR Pop Births Crude BR CPR Deaths averted Cost per Birth Model A 500,000 19,125 3.82% 16 20% $28.24 Model B 500,000 13,400 2.68% 35 66% $92.01 Model C 500,000 9,300 1.86% 55 80% $280.17 Actual 36,620,500 1,471,751 4.02% 25 0% $28.00 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 MMR 330 327.5 325 322.5 320 317.5 315 312.5 310 307.5 305 302.5 300 268.5 237 205.5 174 162.75 151.5 140.25 129 117.75 106.5 95.25 84 76.45 68.9 54.0845454545 43.3054545455 32.5263636364 21.7472727273 Maternal Deaths Counterfactual 4857 4919 4987 5059 5134 5209 5285 5361 5488 5616 5734 5806 5868 5374 4820 4253 3697 3506 3313 3107 2857 2679 2486 2301 2088 1953 1810 1461 1203 930 641 Actual 4857 4878 4903 4931 4960 4963 4964 4963 5005 5034 5049 5021 4979 4459 3930 3400 2809 2624 2437 2248 2089 1946 1804 1654 1496 1361 1225 959 730 545 363 Deaths Averted 175 246 321 399 483 582 685 786 889 915 891 853 888 882 876 859 769 733 682 647 592 591 585 502 473 386 278 0 0 0 0 175 421 742 1141 1624 2206 2891 3677 4566 5481 6371 7224 8112 8994 9869 10728 11497 12230 12912 13558 14150 14741 15326 15828 16302 16687 16965 Note: Maternal deaths are calculated by multiplying MMR by DHS data for number of births (vs pregnancies) Cost based on Costing Cairo, 2002 and Implementing Cairo, 1999 Tinker & Koblinsky, 1993 Price Deflator 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Deflator 2002=base 14.91 13.56 12.22 9.99 8.46 8.36 7.66 7.08 6.36 5.84 5.18 3.95 3.47 2.93 2.47 2.16 1.80 1.64 1.53 1.38 1.29 1.21 1.17 1.14 1.07 1.04 1.00 Since 1980, family planning clinical capacity has grown by over 50% Population 1976 Censuses Popupyion from 1976 Census, Egypt Age Groups Male Female 0 652089 606452 1 597109 561681 2 554853 526198 3 523837 498947 4 502577 478869 0 - 4 2830465 2672147 5 489590 464907 6 483391 456005 7 482496 451104 8 485423 449148 9 490687 449078 5-9 2431587 2270242 10 498735 451349 11 510012 456410 12 513385 455659 13 503510 445019 14 484693 427962 10 - 14 2510335 2236399 15 467206 412218 16 449739 396464 17 429936 380977 18 407893 366743 19 384582 353413 15- 19 2139356 1909815 20 360746 339514 21 336081 325176 22 314780 312462 23 298963 302203 24 287002 293614 20 -24 1597572 1572969 25 275105 285231 26 263976 277520 27 253823 269255 28 244350 259734 29 235678 249665 25-29 1272932 1341405 30 228058 240283 31 221243 231128 32 215693 223675 33 211596 218714 34 208555 215422 30- 34 1085145 1129222 35 205903 212152 36 203680 209191 37 201417 205969 38 198782 202023 39 195867 197604 35- 39 1005649 1026939 40 193131 193453 41 190529 189455 42 187308 185123 43 183154 180301 44 178340 175137 40 - 44 932462 923469 45 173473 169910 46 168445 164526 47 163307 159237 48 158147 154184 49 152929 149222 45-49 816301 797079 50 147605 144206 51 142279 139332 52 136665 133776 53 130646 127168 54 124432 119988 50 -54 681627 664470 55 118248 112967 56 111932 105816 57 106384 99798 58 102039 95572 59 98443 92501 55- 59 537046 506654 60 94755 89311 61 91203 86287 62 87128 82856 63 82136 78613 64 76571 73867 60- 64 431793 410934 65 71324 69494 66 66402 65518 Population 1976 67 61175 61107 0 - 4 2,830,465 2,672,147 68 55481 56000 5-9 2,431,587 2,270,242 69 49686 50647 10 - 14 2,510,335 2,236,399 65-69 304068 302766 15- 19 2,139,356 1,909,815 70 44475 45925 20 -24 1,597,572 1,572,969 71 39895 41857 25-29 1,272,932 1,341,405 72 35997 38466 30- 34 1,085,145 1,129,222 73 32933 35919 35- 39 1,005,649 1,026,939 74 30859 34379 40 - 44 932,462 923,469 70 -74 184159 196546 45-49 816,301 797,079 75 29930 34013 50 -54 681,627 664,470 76 30298 34985 55- 59 537,046 506,654 77 32120 37463 60- 64 431,793 410,934 78 35550 41609 65-69 304,068 302,766 79 40742 47591 70 -74 184,159 196,546 75+ 168640 195661 75+ 168,640 195,661 Total 18929137 18156717 18,929,137 18,156,717 37,085,854 Total Population Demographic History and Trends a. Population Growth Total Population (IN 000) (excpect Egyptians abroad) Year Population No. (IN 000) (Excluding Egyptians abroad) 1960 26085 1966 30076 1976 36626 37,085,854 1986 48254 49174149 1996 59313 1997* 59441 1998* 60706 1999* 61993 2000* 63305 2001* 64652 2002* 65986 2003* 67313 2004* 68648 Source:CAMPAS (2002) *Estimates of population in the first of January for the period (1997-2004) IMR,U5MR IMR U5MR Stat Compiler/Ross File 1967 141 243 Any Risk TFR IMR U5MR 1972 146 238 1988 64.3 4.50 73.2 101.8 1976 124 203 1992 60.9 3.90 61.5 84.9 1977 132 191 1995 54.5 3.60 62.6 80.6 1980 108 157 2000 47.9 3.50 43.5 54.3 1981 120 167 2003 41 3.20 44.7 55.1 1983 97 139 1985 97 130 1986 73 102 1988 82 110 1990 62 85 1991 58 75 1993 63 81 1996 52 65 1998 44 54 2001 38 46 2003 EIDHS 2003,Table 7.2 Interpolated Values based on Various EDHS values; some outliers were dopped; values after 2001 are forecast based on trend 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 IMR 124 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120 108.5 97 97 97 92 87 82 72 62 58 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52 48 44 42 40 38 35.4666666667 33.0666666667 30.6666666667 28.2666666667 25.8666666667 U5MR 203 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167 153 139 134.5 130 123.3333333333 116.6666666667 110 97.5 85 75 73 71 69 67 65 60.5 54 51.3333333333 48.6666666667 46 42.2222222222 38.8333333333 35.4444444444 32.0555555556 28.6666666667 IMR,U5MR 141 243 146 238 124 203 132 191 108 157 120 167 97 139 97 130 73 102 82 110 62 85 58 75 63 81 52 65 44 54 38 46 IMR U5MR CBR & CDR Demographic History and Trends b. Fertility and Mortality Trends Year CBR CDR 1960 43.0 16.9 1986 40.0 9.5 1987 39.0 9.5 1988 38.4 8.6 1989 33.9 8.1 1990 32.5 7.6 1991 30.9 7.4 1992 27.7 7.1 1993 29.0 6.9 1994 28.6 6.8 1995 27.9 6.7 1996 28.3 6.5 1997 27.5 6.5 1998 27.5 6.5 1999 27.0 6.4 2000 27.4 6.3 2001 26.7 6.3 2002* 26.3 6.4 2003* 26.1 6.5 Source CAPMAS (2003) - Annual Statistical Year Book *CAPMAS, Population bulletin in the first of January 2003 &2004 cpr vs.tfr TFR CPR 1976 5.6 18.8313653137 1980 5.3 24.2 1984 4.9 30.3 1986 4.4 37.8 1992 4.1 47.1 1995 3.9 47.8 1997 3.6 54.6 1998 3.3 56 2000 3.5 56.1 2003 3.2 60.1 cpr vs.tfr 18.8313653137 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.1 47.8 54.6 56 56.1 60.1 TFR Demographic History and Trends Fertility and Mortality Trends TFR 1979-19801 5.3 1983-19841 4.9 1986-19882 4.4 1990- 19911 4.1 1990-19922 3.9 1993-19952 3.6 1995-19972 3.3 1996-19982 3.4 1997-20002 3.5 2000-20032 3.2 Note: 1Rates are for the 12-month period preceding the survey. 2Rates are for the 36-month period preceding the survey. Source El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. Trends in proximate determinant Demographic History and Trends Trends in proximate determinant of Cc, Cm, Ci Region Cc: index of contraceptive effect Cm: index of marriage delay Ci: index of postparum infecundability 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 Total 0.75 0.60 0.51 0.65 0.60 0.58 0.74 0.72 0.75 Urban Gov. 0.54 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.47 0.80 0.81 0.81 Lower Urban 0.53 0.43 0.37 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.80 0.81 0.82 Lower Rural 0.81 0.63 0.47 0.68 0.65 0.60 0.71 0.71 0.76 Upper Urban 0.74 0.57 0.50 0.69 0.55 0.53 0.75 0.74 0.78 Upper Rural 0.95 0.88 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.66 0.71 Source: Warren C. Robinson and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. Comparison with other countries Demographic History and Trends Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) Kenya 1989 1993 1998 CPR 26.9 32.7 39.0 TFR 6.7 5.4 4.7 Jordan 1990 1997 CPR 40.0 52.6 TFR 5.6 4.4 Philippines 1993  1998 CPR 40.0 47.8 TFR 4.1 3.7 Colombia 1986  1990  1995  2000 CPR 64.8 66.1 72.2 76.9 TFR 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.6 Egypt 1988  1992  1995  2000 CPR 37.8 47.1 47.9 56.1 TFR 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5 Source: MEASURE DHS - Country Statistics, http://www.measuredhs.com/ comparison 2 Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) TFR CPR 1998 1992 1995 1995-2000 1985 1985-92 1990-95 1990-99 Egypt 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.4 33 46 47 55 Tunisia 4 3.6 3.1 2.6 41 50 60 60 Morrocco 4.8 4.5 3.4 3.1 36 42 50 59 Jordan 7.3 5.8 5.4 4.9 26 35 35 53 Iran 5.6 6.1 5 2.8 23 65 65 73 Turkey 3.5 3.6 2.6 2.5 51 63 63 64 Kenya 8.1 6.4 5.1 4.5 14 33 33 39 Indonisia 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.6 48 50 55 57 China 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.3 77 83 83 . Source: UNDP, Human Development Reports 1990,1994, 1998 and 2000 Infant Mortality Trends in Infant Mortality in Egypt, 1964-2003 Approximate reference period Approximate midpoint Survey Infant mortality 1998-2003 2001 2003 EDHS 38 1995-2000 1998 2000 EDHS 44 1993-1998 1996 2003 EDHS 52 1990-1995 1993 2000 EDHS 66 1990 -1995 1993 1995 EDHS 63 1988-1993 1991 2003 EDHS 58 1987-1992 1990 1992 EDHS 62 1985-1990 1988 2000 EDHS 74 1985-1990 1988 1995 EDHS 82 1983-1988 1986 1988 EDHS 73 1982-1987 1985 1992 EDHS 97 1980-1985 1983 2000 EDHS 98 1980-1985 1983 1995 EDHS 97 1978-1983 1981 1988 EDHS 120 1977-1982 1980 1992 EDHS 108 1974-1979 1977 1980 EFS 132 1973-1978 1976 1988 EDHS 124 1969-1974 1972 1980 EFS 146 1964-1969 1967 1980 EFS 141 Note: For the EIDHS, the field work took place principally during May. Thus, the five- year reference periods for this survey can be considered to approximately represent periods starting in May of the year in which the period terminates. For the 2000 EDH Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. High risk fertility behavior High risk fertility behavior % of children born in the five years prior to the suvery who are at elevated risk of mortality according to category of increased risk, Egypt Risk Category 1988 1992 1995 2000 2003 % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio Not in any high-risk category 39.0 1.0 25.3 1.0 28.0 1.0 32.5 1.0 Unavoidable risk category (first births, mother age 18 to 24) NA NA 26.5 1.4 Single high - risk category 39.4 1.2 37.0 1.9 33.2 1.6 28.9 1.4 Multiple high-risk category 21.6 1.9 17.5 3.3 14.7 2.4 12.1 1.9 In any avoidable high risk category 61.0 1.5 54.5 2.4 47.9 1.9 41.0 1.6 Source: DHS 1992,1995,2000 and 2003 (Tables No.10-5,9-5,10-5 and 7-5 Respectively) Maternal Mortality Trends in Maternal Mortality in Egypt Year MMR per 100.000 birth alive Source 1980 -1987 320 UNDP. 1990. Human Development Report 1988 300 UNDP. 1994. Human Development Report 1992-1993 174 Ministry of Health, Child Survival Project (1994). " National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 1992-1993 2000 84.0 Ministry of Health and Population. 2001. "National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 2000" 2002 68.9 INP and UNDP. 2004. Egypt-Human Development Report FP Clinics 3209 653 3272 670 3300 675 3330 673 3351 682 3366 709 3408 632 3542 639 3562 711 3560 658 3607 714 3632 724 3674 730 3792 731 3863 760 3926 807 4092 781 4385 759 4493 733 4599 706 4805 667 4971 659 5098 629 5235.9762528374 646.0237471626 5345.4670857342 659.5329142658 Government NGO Growth in Family Planning Clinics Clinic capacities # GOE, Private and NGO FP outlets Years GOE (MOHP+HIO+ CCO) NGO (EFPA+ Evangelical Church+ Orthodoxy Church+ CSI) Total Government NGO 1981 3209 653 3862 1982 3272 670 3942 1983 3300 675 3975 1984 3330 673 4003 1985 3351 682 4033 1986 3366 709 4075 1987 3408 632 4040 1988 3542 639 4181 1989 3562 711 4273 1990 3560 658 4218 1991 3607 714 4321 1992 3632 724 4356 1993 3674 730 4404 1994 3792 731 4523 1995 3863 760 4623 1996 3926 807 4733 1997 4092 781 4873 1998 4385 759 5144 1999 4493 733 5226 2000 4599 706 5305 2001 4805 667 5472 2002 4971 659 5630 2003 5098 629 5727 2004 5236 646 5882 2005 5345 660 6005 Source: NPC, Annual Analytical Statistical Family Planning Services Reports, Years From (1981-2003) HIO Health Insurance Organization CCO Curative Care Organization CSI Clinical Services Improvement Project EFPA Egyptian Family Planning Association CYP Chart 1106589 1297118 1459071 1809744 1908946 2075037 1946812 2904513 3375744 4439090 4193792 3713756 2954809 4441392 3467202 3742388 4003574 4214872 4629761 4993032 5134228 5118074 6192616 6553800 CYP Growth in Family Planning (Couple Years of Protection) CYPs Years CYP (years) 1981 1106589 1982 1297118 1983 1459071 1984 1809744 1985 1908946 1986 2075037 1987 1946812 1988 2904513 1989 3375744 1990 4439090 1991 4193792 1992 3713756 1993 2954809 1994 4441392 1995 3467202 1996 3742388 1997 4003574 1998 4214872 1999 4629761 2000 4993032 2001 5134228 2002 5118074 2003 6192616 2004 6553800 Source: NPC, Annual Analytical Statistical Family Planning Services Reports, Years From (1981-2003) Notes: * The following coefficients are use to calculate CYP: 1) From the period 1980 - 1984, CYP Coefficent = 1 2) From the period 1984 - 1987, CYP Coefficent = 1.6 3) From the period 1988 - 2002, CYP Coefficent = 2.5 IUD, 3.0 Norpalnt 4) From 2003 till now , CYP coefficent = 3.2 for both IUD and Norplant , Implanon = 2 * Norplant hasn't been used during (1980-1987) CPR by method Trends in Current Use of Family Planning percent distribution of currently married women by the family planing method currently used, Egypt 1980-2003 Method 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Any method 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.6 47.1 47.9 54.5 51.8 56.1 60 Any modern method 22.8 28.7 35.4 44.3 44.8 45.5 51.8 49.5 53.9 56.6 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 CPR 24.2 30.3 37.8 43.4 47.1 47.8 54.6 51.7 56.1 60.1 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 periodic abstinence 0.5 0.6 0.6 U 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 withdrawal 0.4 0.3 0.5 U 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 prolonged breastfeeding U 0.6 1.1 U 0.9 1 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.1 other 0.3 0.1 0.2 U 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Not using 75.8 69.7 62.2 62.2 52.9 52.1 45.5 48.2 43.9 40 Total percent 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Number of women 8012 9158 8221 8406 9153 13710 5157 5971 14382 8445 Annual change 1.53 1.87 3.27 -0.25 0.27 3.30 -2.70 2.15 3.90 Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. U: Information on the method was not collected or reported. NFS National Fertility Survey EFS Egyptian Fertility Survey ECPS Egyptian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey EDHS Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey EMCHS Egyptian Maternal and Child Health Survey EIDHS Egyptian Interium Demographic and Health Survey Methods Sources Sources for Modern Family Planning Methods percent distribution of current users of modern family planning methods, Egypt 1980-2003 Modern Method 1988 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EDHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Public sector 23.7 35 35.7 40.9 47.9 48.6 55.6 Private sector 74.2 63.4 62.7 58.1 51.9 51.2 43.5 Other 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.8 Don't Know 0 0.4 1.4 0.5 0 0 0.1 Total 99.9 100 100 100 100 100 100 # of Pharmacies Years # of Pharmacies Source 1978 3880 CAPMAS. 1979. Statistical Indicators (1952-1978), Egypt 1979 4500 CAPMAS. 1980. Statistical Indicators (1952-1979), Egypt 1984 7042 CAPMAS. 1985. Statistical Year Book (1952-1985), Egypt 1987 8962 CAPMAS. 1988. Statistical Year Book (1952-1987), Egypt 1990 12070 CAPMAS. 1991. Statistical Year Book (1952-1990), Egypt 1992* 13761 CAPMAS. 1993. Statistical Year Book (1952-1992), Egypt 1/1/1993* 15777 CAPMAS. 1994. Statistical Year Book (1952-1993), Egypt 1/1/1994* 14711 CAPMAS. 1995. Statistical Year Book (1952-1994), Egypt 1/1/1995* 16249 CAPMAS. 1996. Statistical Year Book (1990-1995), Egypt 1/ 7/1997* 16503 CAPMAS. 1998. Statistical Year Book (1992-1997), Egypt 1/ 7/1998* 20838 CAPMAS. 1999. Statistical Year Book (1992-1998), Egypt 1/ 7/1999* 19544 CAPMAS. 2000. Statistical Year Book (1993-1999), Egypt 1/7/01 27160 CAPMAS. 2002. Statistical Year Book (1994-2001), Egypt 1/1/03 29304 CAPMAS. 2003. Statistical Year Book (1995-2002), Egypt 1/1/04 27179 CAPMAS. 2004. Statistical Year Book (1996-2003), Egypt * Estimates or Preliminary data FP Costs Chart 243045 20873347 19914857 3679611 456475 22296679 31198496 6448728 1499080 24463323 39282950 7059875 1368559 29566150 39218511 9216419 2044418 24848395 35393209 9947464 1707683 29409294 26942872 8505452 1229779 52666486 34390242 7324477 1117568 45445310 41734131 9546471 1130566 57993888 52323778 8596190 927334 83403992 61511406 10242190 812504 90892285 53935055 9092186 125807 94823727 58831694 10723721 NGOs GOE Donor Agencies Client Payments Family Planning Costs Cost of Family Planning Total Costs Of Family Palnning Agencies Fiscal year NGOs GOE Donor Agencies Client Payments Total NGOs working in FP areas GOE Donor Agencies Client Payement Total 1998/1989 243,045 20,873,347 19,914,857 3,679,611 44,710,860 0.005 0.467 0.445 0.082 1.000 1989/1990 456,475 22,296,679 31,198,496 6,448,728 60,400,378 0.008 0.369 0.517 0.107 1.000 1990/1991 1,499,080 24,463,323 39,282,950 7,059,875 72,305,228 0.021 0.338 0.543 0.098 1.000 1991/1992 1,368,559 29,566,150 39,218,511 9,216,419 79,369,639 0.017 0.373 0.494 0.116 1.000 1992/1993 2,044,418 24,848,395 35,393,209 9,947,464 72,233,484 0.028 0.344 0.490 0.138 1.000 1993/1994 1,707,683 29,409,294 26,942,872 8,505,452 66,565,301 0.026 0.442 0.405 0.128 1.000 1994/1995 1,229,779 52,666,486 34,390,242 7,324,477 95,610,984 0.013 0.551 0.360 0.077 1.000 1995/1996 1,117,568 45,445,310 41,734,131 9,546,471 97,843,480 0.011 0.464 0.427 0.098 1.000 1996/1997 1,130,566 57,993,888 52,323,778 8,596,190 120,044,422 0.009 0.483 0.436 0.072 1.000 1997/1998 927,334 83,403,992 61,511,406 10,242,190 156,084,922 0.006 0.534 0.394 0.066 1.000 1998/1999 812,504 90,892,285 53,935,055 9,092,186 154,732,030 0.005 0.587 0.349 0.059 1.000 1999/2000 125,807 94,823,727 58,831,694 10,723,721 164,504,949 0.001 0.576 0.358 0.065 1.000 Avg. 0.013 0.461 0.435 0.092 1.000 Source: POLICY II Project/Egypt (Forthcoming). The Trends of the Cost of Family Planning Program in Egypt Funding Donor Assistance to Egyptian Family Planning, 1976-1994 ($000) Donor Year 1976-1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 UNFPA 16.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 584 1.160 1.500 1.450 1.440 1.190 1.294 547.0 2.706 World Bank (IBRD) 25.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - IPPF - - - - - - 26 43 60 51 75 81 N.A. Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) (U.K) 8.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - USAID/C* 29.601 14.726 9.419 13.084 8.727 10.112 8.507 15.189 15.593 20.246 ** 10.468 8.599 USAID/W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.25 760 930 1.120 1.640 2.500 Federal Republic of Germany (GTZ & KFW) 807 2.500 2.500 - - - 280 390 460 460 N.A. 600 N.A. Others (Finland, Japan, Dutch) 232 - - - - - - 60 60 42 30 50 N.A. Total 79.64 19.226 13.919 15.084 9.311 11.272 10.313 18.382 18.373 22.919 15.804 13.386 13.805 Source: Robinson, C.Warren and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. * Bilateral funds only, first period of support refers to 1978-1982 ** Include expenditures for $4.1 million in contracetives actually delivered in 1992-1994 Annual Total Health Spending Public Expenditure on Health Public expenditure on health 1990 1992 1994 1996/97 1998/99 2000/2001 2001/2002 as % of total 2.8 3.3 4.4 4.5 6.9 7.2 2.9 as % of GDP 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.9 Source: UNDP and INP, Egypt HDR. 1994,1995, 1996,1997/98,2003 and2004 The number of pharmacies has increased more than 700% since 1978 Chart1 3880 4500 7042 8962 12070 13761 15777 14711 16249 16503 20838 19544 27160 29304 27179 Pharmacies Population 1976 Censuses Popupyion from 1976 Census, Egypt Age Groups Male Female 0 652089 606452 1 597109 561681 2 554853 526198 3 523837 498947 4 502577 478869 0 - 4 2830465 2672147 5 489590 464907 6 483391 456005 7 482496 451104 8 485423 449148 9 490687 449078 5-9 2431587 2270242 10 498735 451349 11 510012 456410 12 513385 455659 13 503510 445019 14 484693 427962 10 - 14 2510335 2236399 15 467206 412218 16 449739 396464 17 429936 380977 18 407893 366743 19 384582 353413 15- 19 2139356 1909815 20 360746 339514 21 336081 325176 22 314780 312462 23 298963 302203 24 287002 293614 20 -24 1597572 1572969 25 275105 285231 26 263976 277520 27 253823 269255 28 244350 259734 29 235678 249665 25-29 1272932 1341405 30 228058 240283 31 221243 231128 32 215693 223675 33 211596 218714 34 208555 215422 30- 34 1085145 1129222 35 205903 212152 36 203680 209191 37 201417 205969 38 198782 202023 39 195867 197604 35- 39 1005649 1026939 40 193131 193453 41 190529 189455 42 187308 185123 43 183154 180301 44 178340 175137 40 - 44 932462 923469 45 173473 169910 46 168445 164526 47 163307 159237 48 158147 154184 49 152929 149222 45-49 816301 797079 50 147605 144206 51 142279 139332 52 136665 133776 53 130646 127168 54 124432 119988 50 -54 681627 664470 55 118248 112967 56 111932 105816 57 106384 99798 58 102039 95572 59 98443 92501 55- 59 537046 506654 60 94755 89311 61 91203 86287 62 87128 82856 63 82136 78613 64 76571 73867 60- 64 431793 410934 65 71324 69494 66 66402 65518 Population 1976 67 61175 61107 0 - 4 2,830,465 2,672,147 68 55481 56000 5-9 2,431,587 2,270,242 69 49686 50647 10 - 14 2,510,335 2,236,399 65-69 304068 302766 15- 19 2,139,356 1,909,815 70 44475 45925 20 -24 1,597,572 1,572,969 71 39895 41857 25-29 1,272,932 1,341,405 72 35997 38466 30- 34 1,085,145 1,129,222 73 32933 35919 35- 39 1,005,649 1,026,939 74 30859 34379 40 - 44 932,462 923,469 70 -74 184159 196546 45-49 816,301 797,079 75 29930 34013 50 -54 681,627 664,470 76 30298 34985 55- 59 537,046 506,654 77 32120 37463 60- 64 431,793 410,934 78 35550 41609 65-69 304,068 302,766 79 40742 47591 70 -74 184,159 196,546 75+ 168640 195661 75+ 168,640 195,661 Total 18929137 18156717 18,929,137 18,156,717 37,085,854 Total Population Demographic History and Trends a. Population Growth Total Population (IN 000) (excpect Egyptians abroad) Year Population No. (IN 000) (Excluding Egyptians abroad) 1960 26085 1966 30076 1976 36626 37,085,854 1986 48254 49174149 1996 59313 1997* 59441 1998* 60706 1999* 61993 2000* 63305 2001* 64652 2002* 65986 2003* 67313 2004* 68648 Source:CAMPAS (2002) *Estimates of population in the first of January for the period (1997-2004) IMR,U5MR IMR U5MR Stat Compiler/Ross File 1967 141 243 Any Risk TFR IMR U5MR 1972 146 238 1988 64.3 4.50 73.2 101.8 1976 124 203 1992 60.9 3.90 61.5 84.9 1977 132 191 1995 54.5 3.60 62.6 80.6 1980 108 157 2000 47.9 3.50 43.5 54.3 1981 120 167 2003 41 3.20 44.7 55.1 1983 97 139 1985 97 130 1986 73 102 1988 82 110 1990 62 85 1991 58 75 1993 63 81 1996 52 65 1998 44 54 2001 38 46 2003 EIDHS 2003,Table 7.2 Interpolated Values based on Various EDHS values; some outliers were dopped; values after 2001 are forecast based on trend 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 IMR 124 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120 108.5 97 97 97 92 87 82 72 62 58 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52 48 44 42 40 38 35.4666666667 33.0666666667 30.6666666667 28.2666666667 25.8666666667 U5MR 203 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167 153 139 134.5 130 123.3333333333 116.6666666667 110 97.5 85 75 73 71 69 67 65 60.5 54 51.3333333333 48.6666666667 46 42.2222222222 38.8333333333 35.4444444444 32.0555555556 28.6666666667 IMR,U5MR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IMR U5MR CBR & CDR Demographic History and Trends b. Fertility and Mortality Trends Year CBR CDR 1960 43.0 16.9 1986 40.0 9.5 1987 39.0 9.5 1988 38.4 8.6 1989 33.9 8.1 1990 32.5 7.6 1991 30.9 7.4 1992 27.7 7.1 1993 29.0 6.9 1994 28.6 6.8 1995 27.9 6.7 1996 28.3 6.5 1997 27.5 6.5 1998 27.5 6.5 1999 27.0 6.4 2000 27.4 6.3 2001 26.7 6.3 2002* 26.3 6.4 2003* 26.1 6.5 Source CAPMAS (2003) - Annual Statistical Year Book *CAPMAS, Population bulletin in the first of January 2003 &2004 cpr vs.tfr TFR CPR 1976 5.6 18.8313653137 1980 5.3 24.2 1984 4.9 30.3 1986 4.4 37.8 1992 4.1 47.1 1995 3.9 47.8 1997 3.6 54.6 1998 3.3 56 2000 3.5 56.1 2003 3.2 60.1 cpr vs.tfr 18.8313653137 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.1 47.8 54.6 56 56.1 60.1 TFR Demographic History and Trends Fertility and Mortality Trends TFR 1979-19801 5.3 1983-19841 4.9 1986-19882 4.4 1990- 19911 4.1 1990-19922 3.9 1993-19952 3.6 1995-19972 3.3 1996-19982 3.4 1997-20002 3.5 2000-20032 3.2 Note: 1Rates are for the 12-month period preceding the survey. 2Rates are for the 36-month period preceding the survey. Source El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. Trends in proximate determinant Demographic History and Trends Trends in proximate determinant of Cc, Cm, Ci Region Cc: index of contraceptive effect Cm: index of marriage delay Ci: index of postparum infecundability 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 Total 0.75 0.60 0.51 0.65 0.60 0.58 0.74 0.72 0.75 Urban Gov. 0.54 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.47 0.80 0.81 0.81 Lower Urban 0.53 0.43 0.37 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.80 0.81 0.82 Lower Rural 0.81 0.63 0.47 0.68 0.65 0.60 0.71 0.71 0.76 Upper Urban 0.74 0.57 0.50 0.69 0.55 0.53 0.75 0.74 0.78 Upper Rural 0.95 0.88 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.66 0.71 Source: Warren C. Robinson and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. Comparison with other countries Demographic History and Trends Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) Kenya 1989 1993 1998 CPR 26.9 32.7 39.0 TFR 6.7 5.4 4.7 Jordan 1990 1997 CPR 40.0 52.6 TFR 5.6 4.4 Philippines 1993  1998 CPR 40.0 47.8 TFR 4.1 3.7 Colombia 1986  1990  1995  2000 CPR 64.8 66.1 72.2 76.9 TFR 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.6 Egypt 1988  1992  1995  2000 CPR 37.8 47.1 47.9 56.1 TFR 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5 Source: MEASURE DHS - Country Statistics, http://www.measuredhs.com/ comparison 2 Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) TFR CPR 1998 1992 1995 1995-2000 1985 1985-92 1990-95 1990-99 Egypt 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.4 33 46 47 55 Tunisia 4 3.6 3.1 2.6 41 50 60 60 Morrocco 4.8 4.5 3.4 3.1 36 42 50 59 Jordan 7.3 5.8 5.4 4.9 26 35 35 53 Iran 5.6 6.1 5 2.8 23 65 65 73 Turkey 3.5 3.6 2.6 2.5 51 63 63 64 Kenya 8.1 6.4 5.1 4.5 14 33 33 39 Indonisia 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.6 48 50 55 57 China 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.3 77 83 83 . Source: UNDP, Human Development Reports 1990,1994, 1998 and 2000 Infant Mortality Trends in Infant Mortality in Egypt, 1964-2003 Approximate reference period Approximate midpoint Survey Infant mortality 1998-2003 2001 2003 EDHS 38 1995-2000 1998 2000 EDHS 44 1993-1998 1996 2003 EDHS 52 1990-1995 1993 2000 EDHS 66 1990 -1995 1993 1995 EDHS 63 1988-1993 1991 2003 EDHS 58 1987-1992 1990 1992 EDHS 62 1985-1990 1988 2000 EDHS 74 1985-1990 1988 1995 EDHS 82 1983-1988 1986 1988 EDHS 73 1982-1987 1985 1992 EDHS 97 1980-1985 1983 2000 EDHS 98 1980-1985 1983 1995 EDHS 97 1978-1983 1981 1988 EDHS 120 1977-1982 1980 1992 EDHS 108 1974-1979 1977 1980 EFS 132 1973-1978 1976 1988 EDHS 124 1969-1974 1972 1980 EFS 146 1964-1969 1967 1980 EFS 141 Note: For the EIDHS, the field work took place principally during May. Thus, the five- year reference periods for this survey can be considered to approximately represent periods starting in May of the year in which the period terminates. For the 2000 EDH Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. High risk fertility behavior High risk fertility behavior % of children born in the five years prior to the suvery who are at elevated risk of mortality according to category of increased risk, Egypt Risk Category 1988 1992 1995 2000 2003 % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio Not in any high-risk category 39.0 1.0 25.3 1.0 28.0 1.0 32.5 1.0 Unavoidable risk category (first births, mother age 18 to 24) NA NA 26.5 1.4 Single high - risk category 39.4 1.2 37.0 1.9 33.2 1.6 28.9 1.4 Multiple high-risk category 21.6 1.9 17.5 3.3 14.7 2.4 12.1 1.9 In any avoidable high risk category 61.0 1.5 54.5 2.4 47.9 1.9 41.0 1.6 Source: DHS 1992,1995,2000 and 2003 (Tables No.10-5,9-5,10-5 and 7-5 Respectively) Maternal Mortality Trends in Maternal Mortality in Egypt Year MMR per 100.000 birth alive Source 1980 -1987 320 UNDP. 1990. Human Development Report 1988 300 UNDP. 1994. Human Development Report 1992-1993 174 Ministry of Health, Child Survival Project (1994). " National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 1992-1993 2000 84.0 Ministry of Health and Population. 2001. "National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 2000" 2002 68.9 INP and UNDP. 2004. Egypt-Human Development Report FP Clinics 3209 653 3272 670 3300 675 3330 673 3351 682 3366 709 3408 632 3542 639 3562 711 3560 658 3607 714 3632 724 3674 730 3792 731 3863 760 3926 807 4092 781 4385 759 4493 733 4599 706 4805 667 4971 659 5098 629 5235.9762528374 646.0237471626 5345.4670857342 659.5329142658 Government NGO Growth in Family Planning Clinics Clinic capacities # GOE, Private and NGO FP outlets Years GOE (MOHP+HIO+ CCO) NGO (EFPA+ Evangelical Church+ Orthodoxy Church+ CSI) Total Government NGO 1981 3209 653 3862 1982 3272 670 3942 1983 3300 675 3975 1984 3330 673 4003 1985 3351 682 4033 1986 3366 709 4075 1987 3408 632 4040 1988 3542 639 4181 1989 3562 711 4273 1990 3560 658 4218 1991 3607 714 4321 1992 3632 724 4356 1993 3674 730 4404 1994 3792 731 4523 1995 3863 760 4623 1996 3926 807 4733 1997 4092 781 4873 1998 4385 759 5144 1999 4493 733 5226 2000 4599 706 5305 2001 4805 667 5472 2002 4971 659 5630 2003 5098 629 5727 2004 5236 646 5882 2005 5345 660 6005 Source: NPC, Annual Analytical Statistical Family Planning Services Reports, Years From (1981-2003) HIO Health Insurance Organization CCO Curative Care Organization CSI Clinical Services Improvement Project EFPA Egyptian Family Planning Association CYP Chart 1106589 1297118 1459071 1809744 1908946 2075037 1946812 2904513 3375744 4439090 4193792 3713756 2954809 4441392 3467202 3742388 4003574 4214872 4629761 4993032 5134228 5118074 6192616 6553800 CYP Growth in Family Planning (Couple Years of Protection) CYPs Years CYP (years) 1981 1106589 1982 1297118 1983 1459071 1984 1809744 1985 1908946 1986 2075037 1987 1946812 1988 2904513 1989 3375744 1990 4439090 1991 4193792 1992 3713756 1993 2954809 1994 4441392 1995 3467202 1996 3742388 1997 4003574 1998 4214872 1999 4629761 2000 4993032 2001 5134228 2002 5118074 2003 6192616 2004 6553800 Source: NPC, Annual Analytical Statistical Family Planning Services Reports, Years From (1981-2003) Notes: * The following coefficients are use to calculate CYP: 1) From the period 1980 - 1984, CYP Coefficent = 1 2) From the period 1984 - 1987, CYP Coefficent = 1.6 3) From the period 1988 - 2002, CYP Coefficent = 2.5 IUD, 3.0 Norpalnt 4) From 2003 till now , CYP coefficent = 3.2 for both IUD and Norplant , Implanon = 2 * Norplant hasn't been used during (1980-1987) CPR by method Trends in Current Use of Family Planning percent distribution of currently married women by the family planing method currently used, Egypt 1980-2003 Method 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Any method 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.6 47.1 47.9 54.5 51.8 56.1 60 Any modern method 22.8 28.7 35.4 44.3 44.8 45.5 51.8 49.5 53.9 56.6 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 CPR 24.2 30.3 37.8 43.4 47.1 47.8 54.6 51.7 56.1 60.1 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 periodic abstinence 0.5 0.6 0.6 U 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 withdrawal 0.4 0.3 0.5 U 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 prolonged breastfeeding U 0.6 1.1 U 0.9 1 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.1 other 0.3 0.1 0.2 U 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Not using 75.8 69.7 62.2 62.2 52.9 52.1 45.5 48.2 43.9 40 Total percent 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Number of women 8012 9158 8221 8406 9153 13710 5157 5971 14382 8445 Annual change 1.53 1.87 3.27 -0.25 0.27 3.30 -2.70 2.15 3.90 Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. U: Information on the method was not collected or reported. NFS National Fertility Survey EFS Egyptian Fertility Survey ECPS Egyptian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey EDHS Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey EMCHS Egyptian Maternal and Child Health Survey EIDHS Egyptian Interium Demographic and Health Survey Methods Sources Sources for Modern Family Planning Methods percent distribution of current users of modern family planning methods, Egypt 1980-2003 Modern Method 1988 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EDHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Public sector 23.7 35 35.7 40.9 47.9 48.6 55.6 Private sector 74.2 63.4 62.7 58.1 51.9 51.2 43.5 Other 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.8 Don't Know 0 0.4 1.4 0.5 0 0 0.1 Total 99.9 100 100 100 100 100 100 # of Pharmacies Years Pharmacies Source 1978 1978 3880 CAPMAS. 1979. Statistical Indicators (1952-1978), Egypt 1979 1979 4500 CAPMAS. 1980. Statistical Indicators (1952-1979), Egypt 1984 1984 7042 CAPMAS. 1985. Statistical Year Book (1952-1985), Egypt 1987 1987 8962 CAPMAS. 1988. Statistical Year Book (1952-1987), Egypt 1990 1990 12070 CAPMAS. 1991. Statistical Year Book (1952-1990), Egypt 1992 1992* 13761 CAPMAS. 1993. Statistical Year Book (1952-1992), Egypt 1993 1/1/1993* 15777 CAPMAS. 1994. Statistical Year Book (1952-1993), Egypt 1994 1/1/1994* 14711 CAPMAS. 1995. Statistical Year Book (1952-1994), Egypt 1995 1/1/1995* 16249 CAPMAS. 1996. Statistical Year Book (1990-1995), Egypt 1997 1/ 7/1997* 16503 CAPMAS. 1998. Statistical Year Book (1992-1997), Egypt 1998 1/ 7/1998* 20838 CAPMAS. 1999. Statistical Year Book (1992-1998), Egypt 1999 1/ 7/1999* 19544 CAPMAS. 2000. Statistical Year Book (1993-1999), Egypt 2001 1/7/01 27160 CAPMAS. 2002. Statistical Year Book (1994-2001), Egypt 2003 1/1/03 29304 CAPMAS. 2003. Statistical Year Book (1995-2002), Egypt 2004 1/1/04 27179 CAPMAS. 2004. Statistical Year Book (1996-2003), Egypt * Estimates or Preliminary data # of Pharmacies 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pharmacies FP Costs Chart 243045 20873347 19914857 3679611 456475 22296679 31198496 6448728 1499080 24463323 39282950 7059875 1368559 29566150 39218511 9216419 2044418 24848395 35393209 9947464 1707683 29409294 26942872 8505452 1229779 52666486 34390242 7324477 1117568 45445310 41734131 9546471 1130566 57993888 52323778 8596190 927334 83403992 61511406 10242190 812504 90892285 53935055 9092186 125807 94823727 58831694 10723721 2987.05 125551108.86432782 82446657.58513632 15070578.471426606 52841.75 121756736.39197527 67873355.57341136 16562496.740106553 NGOs GOE Donor Agencies Client Payments Family Planning Costs Cost of Family Planning Total Costs Of Family Palnning Agencies Fiscal year NGOs GOE Donor Agencies Client Payments Total NGOs working in FP areas GOE Donor Agencies Client Payement Total 1988/1989 243,045 20,873,347 19,914,857 3,679,611 44,710,860 0.005 0.467 0.445 0.082 1.000 1989/1990 456,475 22,296,679 31,198,496 6,448,728 60,400,378 0.008 0.369 0.517 0.107 1.000 1990/1991 1,499,080 24,463,323 39,282,950 7,059,875 72,305,228 0.021 0.338 0.543 0.098 1.000 1991/1992 1,368,559 29,566,150 39,218,511 9,216,419 79,369,639 0.017 0.373 0.494 0.116 1.000 1992/1993 2,044,418 24,848,395 35,393,209 9,947,464 72,233,484 0.028 0.344 0.490 0.138 1.000 1993/1994 1,707,683 29,409,294 26,942,872 8,505,452 66,565,301 0.026 0.442 0.405 0.128 1.000 1994/1995 1,229,779 52,666,486 34,390,242 7,324,477 95,610,984 0.013 0.551 0.360 0.077 1.000 1995/1996 1,117,568 45,445,310 41,734,131 9,546,471 97,843,480 0.011 0.464 0.427 0.098 1.000 1996/1997 1,130,566 57,993,888 52,323,778 8,596,190 120,044,422 0.009 0.483 0.436 0.072 1.000 1997/1998 927,334 83,403,992 61,511,406 10,242,190 156,084,922 0.006 0.534 0.394 0.066 1.000 1998/1999 812,504 90,892,285 53,935,055 9,092,186 154,732,030 0.005 0.587 0.349 0.059 1.000 1999/2000 125,807 94,823,727 58,831,694 10,723,721 164,504,949 0.001 0.576 0.358 0.065 1.000 2001/2002 2,987 125,551,109 82,446,658 15,070,578 223,071,332 2002/2003 52,842 121,756,736 67,873,356 16,562,497 206,245,430 Avg. 0.013 0.461 0.435 0.092 1.000 Source: POLICY II Project/Egypt (Forthcoming). The Trends of the Cost of Family Planning Program in Egypt Funding Donor Assistance to Egyptian Family Planning, 1976-1994 ($000) Donor Year 1976-1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 UNFPA 16.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 584 1.160 1.500 1.450 1.440 1.190 1.294 547.0 2.706 World Bank (IBRD) 25.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - IPPF - - - - - - 26 43 60 51 75 81 N.A. Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) (U.K) 8.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - USAID/C* 29.601 14.726 9.419 13.084 8.727 10.112 8.507 15.189 15.593 20.246 ** 10.468 8.599 USAID/W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.25 760 930 1.120 1.640 2.500 Federal Republic of Germany (GTZ & KFW) 807 2.500 2.500 - - - 280 390 460 460 N.A. 600 N.A. Others (Finland, Japan, Dutch) 232 - - - - - - 60 60 42 30 50 N.A. Total 79.64 19.226 13.919 15.084 9.311 11.272 10.313 18.382 18.373 22.919 15.804 13.386 13.805 Source: Robinson, C.Warren and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. * Bilateral funds only, first period of support refers to 1978-1982 ** Include expenditures for $4.1 million in contracetives actually delivered in 1992-1994 Annual Total Health Spending Public Expenditure on Health Public expenditure on health 1990 1992 1994 1996/97 1998/99 2000/2001 2001/2002 as % of total 2.8 3.3 4.4 4.5 6.9 7.2 2.9 as % of GDP 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.9 Source: UNDP and INP, Egypt HDR. 1994,1995, 1996,1997/98,2003 and2004 Expenditure on family planning has increased 400% since the late 80’s Population 1976 Censuses Popupyion from 1976 Census, Egypt Age Groups Male Female 0 652089 606452 1 597109 561681 2 554853 526198 3 523837 498947 4 502577 478869 0 - 4 2830465 2672147 5 489590 464907 6 483391 456005 7 482496 451104 8 485423 449148 9 490687 449078 5-9 2431587 2270242 10 498735 451349 11 510012 456410 12 513385 455659 13 503510 445019 14 484693 427962 10 - 14 2510335 2236399 15 467206 412218 16 449739 396464 17 429936 380977 18 407893 366743 19 384582 353413 15- 19 2139356 1909815 20 360746 339514 21 336081 325176 22 314780 312462 23 298963 302203 24 287002 293614 20 -24 1597572 1572969 25 275105 285231 26 263976 277520 27 253823 269255 28 244350 259734 29 235678 249665 25-29 1272932 1341405 30 228058 240283 31 221243 231128 32 215693 223675 33 211596 218714 34 208555 215422 30- 34 1085145 1129222 35 205903 212152 36 203680 209191 37 201417 205969 38 198782 202023 39 195867 197604 35- 39 1005649 1026939 40 193131 193453 41 190529 189455 42 187308 185123 43 183154 180301 44 178340 175137 40 - 44 932462 923469 45 173473 169910 46 168445 164526 47 163307 159237 48 158147 154184 49 152929 149222 45-49 816301 797079 50 147605 144206 51 142279 139332 52 136665 133776 53 130646 127168 54 124432 119988 50 -54 681627 664470 55 118248 112967 56 111932 105816 57 106384 99798 58 102039 95572 59 98443 92501 55- 59 537046 506654 60 94755 89311 61 91203 86287 62 87128 82856 63 82136 78613 64 76571 73867 60- 64 431793 410934 65 71324 69494 66 66402 65518 Population 1976 67 61175 61107 0 - 4 2,830,465 2,672,147 68 55481 56000 5-9 2,431,587 2,270,242 69 49686 50647 10 - 14 2,510,335 2,236,399 65-69 304068 302766 15- 19 2,139,356 1,909,815 70 44475 45925 20 -24 1,597,572 1,572,969 71 39895 41857 25-29 1,272,932 1,341,405 72 35997 38466 30- 34 1,085,145 1,129,222 73 32933 35919 35- 39 1,005,649 1,026,939 74 30859 34379 40 - 44 932,462 923,469 70 -74 184159 196546 45-49 816,301 797,079 75 29930 34013 50 -54 681,627 664,470 76 30298 34985 55- 59 537,046 506,654 77 32120 37463 60- 64 431,793 410,934 78 35550 41609 65-69 304,068 302,766 79 40742 47591 70 -74 184,159 196,546 75+ 168640 195661 75+ 168,640 195,661 Total 18929137 18156717 18,929,137 18,156,717 37,085,854 Total Population Demographic History and Trends a. Population Growth Total Population (IN 000) (excpect Egyptians abroad) Year Population No. (IN 000) (Excluding Egyptians abroad) 1960 26085 1966 30076 1976 36626 37,085,854 1986 48254 49174149 1996 59313 1997* 59441 1998* 60706 1999* 61993 2000* 63305 2001* 64652 2002* 65986 2003* 67313 2004* 68648 Source:CAMPAS (2002) *Estimates of population in the first of January for the period (1997-2004) IMR,U5MR IMR U5MR Stat Compiler/Ross File 1967 141 243 Any Risk TFR IMR U5MR 1972 146 238 1988 64.3 4.50 73.2 101.8 1976 124 203 1992 60.9 3.90 61.5 84.9 1977 132 191 1995 54.5 3.60 62.6 80.6 1980 108 157 2000 47.9 3.50 43.5 54.3 1981 120 167 2003 41 3.20 44.7 55.1 1983 97 139 1985 97 130 1986 73 102 1988 82 110 1990 62 85 1991 58 75 1993 63 81 1996 52 65 1998 44 54 2001 38 46 2003 EIDHS 2003,Table 7.2 Interpolated Values based on Various EDHS values; some outliers were dopped; values after 2001 are forecast based on trend 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 IMR 124 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120 108.5 97 97 97 92 87 82 72 62 58 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52 48 44 42 40 38 35.4666666667 33.0666666667 30.6666666667 28.2666666667 25.8666666667 U5MR 203 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167 153 139 134.5 130 123.3333333333 116.6666666667 110 97.5 85 75 73 71 69 67 65 60.5 54 51.3333333333 48.6666666667 46 42.2222222222 38.8333333333 35.4444444444 32.0555555556 28.6666666667 IMR,U5MR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IMR U5MR CBR & CDR Demographic History and Trends b. Fertility and Mortality Trends Year CBR CDR 1960 43.0 16.9 1986 40.0 9.5 1987 39.0 9.5 1988 38.4 8.6 1989 33.9 8.1 1990 32.5 7.6 1991 30.9 7.4 1992 27.7 7.1 1993 29.0 6.9 1994 28.6 6.8 1995 27.9 6.7 1996 28.3 6.5 1997 27.5 6.5 1998 27.5 6.5 1999 27.0 6.4 2000 27.4 6.3 2001 26.7 6.3 2002* 26.3 6.4 2003* 26.1 6.5 Source CAPMAS (2003) - Annual Statistical Year Book *CAPMAS, Population bulletin in the first of January 2003 &2004 cpr vs.tfr TFR CPR 1976 5.6 18.8313653137 1980 5.3 24.2 1984 4.9 30.3 1986 4.4 37.8 1992 4.1 47.1 1995 3.9 47.8 1997 3.6 54.6 1998 3.3 56 2000 3.5 56.1 2003 3.2 60.1 cpr vs.tfr 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TFR Demographic History and Trends Fertility and Mortality Trends TFR 1979-19801 5.3 1983-19841 4.9 1986-19882 4.4 1990- 19911 4.1 1990-19922 3.9 1993-19952 3.6 1995-19972 3.3 1996-19982 3.4 1997-20002 3.5 2000-20032 3.2 Note: 1Rates are for the 12-month period preceding the survey. 2Rates are for the 36-month period preceding the survey. Source El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. Trends in proximate determinant Demographic History and Trends Trends in proximate determinant of Cc, Cm, Ci Region Cc: index of contraceptive effect Cm: index of marriage delay Ci: index of postparum infecundability 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 Total 0.75 0.60 0.51 0.65 0.60 0.58 0.74 0.72 0.75 Urban Gov. 0.54 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.47 0.80 0.81 0.81 Lower Urban 0.53 0.43 0.37 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.80 0.81 0.82 Lower Rural 0.81 0.63 0.47 0.68 0.65 0.60 0.71 0.71 0.76 Upper Urban 0.74 0.57 0.50 0.69 0.55 0.53 0.75 0.74 0.78 Upper Rural 0.95 0.88 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.66 0.71 Source: Warren C. Robinson and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. Comparison with other countries Demographic History and Trends Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) Kenya 1989 1993 1998 CPR 26.9 32.7 39.0 TFR 6.7 5.4 4.7 Jordan 1990 1997 CPR 40.0 52.6 TFR 5.6 4.4 Philippines 1993  1998 CPR 40.0 47.8 TFR 4.1 3.7 Colombia 1986  1990  1995  2000 CPR 64.8 66.1 72.2 76.9 TFR 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.6 Egypt 1988  1992  1995  2000 CPR 37.8 47.1 47.9 56.1 TFR 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5 Source: MEASURE DHS - Country Statistics, http://www.measuredhs.com/ comparison 2 Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) TFR CPR 1998 1992 1995 1995-2000 1985 1985-92 1990-95 1990-99 Egypt 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.4 33 46 47 55 Tunisia 4 3.6 3.1 2.6 41 50 60 60 Morrocco 4.8 4.5 3.4 3.1 36 42 50 59 Jordan 7.3 5.8 5.4 4.9 26 35 35 53 Iran 5.6 6.1 5 2.8 23 65 65 73 Turkey 3.5 3.6 2.6 2.5 51 63 63 64 Kenya 8.1 6.4 5.1 4.5 14 33 33 39 Indonisia 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.6 48 50 55 57 China 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.3 77 83 83 . Source: UNDP, Human Development Reports 1990,1994, 1998 and 2000 Infant Mortality Trends in Infant Mortality in Egypt, 1964-2003 Approximate reference period Approximate midpoint Survey Infant mortality 1998-2003 2001 2003 EDHS 38 1995-2000 1998 2000 EDHS 44 1993-1998 1996 2003 EDHS 52 1990-1995 1993 2000 EDHS 66 1990 -1995 1993 1995 EDHS 63 1988-1993 1991 2003 EDHS 58 1987-1992 1990 1992 EDHS 62 1985-1990 1988 2000 EDHS 74 1985-1990 1988 1995 EDHS 82 1983-1988 1986 1988 EDHS 73 1982-1987 1985 1992 EDHS 97 1980-1985 1983 2000 EDHS 98 1980-1985 1983 1995 EDHS 97 1978-1983 1981 1988 EDHS 120 1977-1982 1980 1992 EDHS 108 1974-1979 1977 1980 EFS 132 1973-1978 1976 1988 EDHS 124 1969-1974 1972 1980 EFS 146 1964-1969 1967 1980 EFS 141 Note: For the EIDHS, the field work took place principally during May. Thus, the five- year reference periods for this survey can be considered to approximately represent periods starting in May of the year in which the period terminates. For the 2000 EDH Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. High risk fertility behavior High risk fertility behavior % of children born in the five years prior to the suvery who are at elevated risk of mortality according to category of increased risk, Egypt Risk Category 1988 1992 1995 2000 2003 % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio Not in any high-risk category 39.0 1.0 25.3 1.0 28.0 1.0 32.5 1.0 Unavoidable risk category (first births, mother age 18 to 24) NA NA 26.5 1.4 Single high - risk category 39.4 1.2 37.0 1.9 33.2 1.6 28.9 1.4 Multiple high-risk category 21.6 1.9 17.5 3.3 14.7 2.4 12.1 1.9 In any avoidable high risk category 61.0 1.5 54.5 2.4 47.9 1.9 41.0 1.6 Source: DHS 1992,1995,2000 and 2003 (Tables No.10-5,9-5,10-5 and 7-5 Respectively) Maternal Mortality Trends in Maternal Mortality in Egypt Year MMR per 100.000 birth alive Source 1980 -1987 320 UNDP. 1990. Human Development Report 1988 300 UNDP. 1994. Human Development Report 1992-1993 174 Ministry of Health, Child Survival Project (1994). " National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 1992-1993 2000 84.0 Ministry of Health and Population. 2001. "National Maternal Mortality Study, Egypt 2000" 2002 68.9 INP and UNDP. 2004. Egypt-Human Development Report FP Clinics 3209 653 3272 670 3300 675 3330 673 3351 682 3366 709 3408 632 3542 639 3562 711 3560 658 3607 714 3632 724 3674 730 3792 731 3863 760 3926 807 4092 781 4385 759 4493 733 4599 706 4805 667 4971 659 5098 629 Government NGO Growth in Family Planning Clinics Clinic capacities # GOE, Private and NGO FP outlets Years GOE (MOHP+HIO+ CCO) NGO (EFPA+ Evangelical Church+ Orthodoxy Church+ CSI) Total Government NGO 1981 3209 653 3862 1982 3272 670 3942 1983 3300 675 3975 1984 3330 673 4003 1985 3351 682 4033 1986 3366 709 4075 1987 3408 632 4040 1988 3542 639 4181 1989 3562 711 4273 1990 3560 658 4218 1991 3607 714 4321 1992 3632 724 4356 1993 3674 730 4404 1994 3792 731 4523 1995 3863 760 4623 1996 3926 807 4733 1997 4092 781 4873 1998 4385 759 5144 1999 4493 733 5226 2000 4599 706 5305 2001 4805 667 5472 2002 4971 659 5630 2003 5098 629 5727 Source: NPC, Annual Analytical Statistical Family Planning Services Reports, Years From (1981-2003) HIO Health Insurance Organization CCO Curative Care Organization CSI Clinical Services Improvement Project EFPA Egyptian Family Planning Association CYP Chart 1106589 1297118 1459071 1809744 1908946 2075037 1946812 2904513 3375744 4439090 4193792 3713756 2954809 4441392 3467202 3742388 4003574 4214872 4629761 4993032 5134228 5118074 6192616 CYP Growth in Family Planning (Couple Years of Protection) CYPs Years CYP (years) 1981 1106589 1982 1297118 1983 1459071 1984 1809744 1985 1908946 1986 2075037 1987 1946812 1988 2904513 1989 3375744 1990 4439090 1991 4193792 1992 3713756 1993 2954809 1994 4441392 1995 3467202 1996 3742388 1997 4003574 1998 4214872 1999 4629761 2000 4993032 2001 5134228 2002 5118074 2003 6192616 Source: NPC, Annual Analytical Statistical Family Planning Services Reports, Years From (1981-2003) Notes: * The following coefficients are use to calculate CYP: 1) From the period 1980 - 1984, CYP Coefficent = 1 2) From the period 1984 - 1987, CYP Coefficent = 1.6 3) From the period 1988 - 2002, CYP Coefficent = 2.5 IUD, 3.0 Norpalnt 4) From 2003 till now , CYP coefficent = 3.2 for both IUD and Norplant , Implanon = 2 * Norplant hasn't been used during (1980-1987) CPR by method Trends in Current Use of Family Planning percent distribution of currently married women by the family planing method currently used, Egypt 1980-2003 Method 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 1980 1984 1988 1991 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS EFS ECPS EDHS EMCHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Any method 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.6 47.1 47.9 54.5 51.8 56.1 60 Any modern method 22.8 28.7 35.4 44.3 44.8 45.5 51.8 49.5 53.9 56.6 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 Injection U 0.3 0.1 U 0.5 2.4 3.9 3.9 6.1 7.9 IUD 4.1 8.4 15.7 24.2 27.9 30 34.6 34.3 35.5 36.7 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Implant(Norplant) U U U U 0 0 0.1 0 0.2 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 Pill 16.6 16.5 15.3 15.9 12.9 10.4 10.2 8.7 9.5 9.3 Condom 1.1 1.3 2.4 U 2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1 0.9 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 Female sterilization 0.7 1.5 1.5 U 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.4 0.9 Diaphragm/foam/jelly 0.3 0.7 0.4 U 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 CPR 24.2 30.3 37.8 43.4 47.1 47.8 54.6 51.7 56.1 60.1 Any traditional method 1.4 1.6 2.4 3.3 2.3 2.4 2.7 2.3 2.2 3.4 periodic abstinence 0.5 0.6 0.6 U 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 withdrawal 0.4 0.3 0.5 U 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.4 prolonged breastfeeding U 0.6 1.1 U 0.9 1 1.5 1.1 1.2 2.1 other 0.3 0.1 0.2 U 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Not using 75.8 69.7 62.2 62.2 52.9 52.1 45.5 48.2 43.9 40 Total percent 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Number of women 8012 9158 8221 8406 9153 13710 5157 5971 14382 8445 Annual change 1.53 1.87 3.27 -0.25 0.27 3.30 -2.70 2.15 3.90 Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. U: Information on the method was not collected or reported. NFS National Fertility Survey EFS Egyptian Fertility Survey ECPS Egyptian Contraceptive Prevalence Survey EDHS Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey EMCHS Egyptian Maternal and Child Health Survey EIDHS Egyptian Interium Demographic and Health Survey Methods Sources Sources for Modern Family Planning Methods percent distribution of current users of modern family planning methods, Egypt 1980-2003 Modern Method 1988 1992 1995 1997 1998 2000 2003 EDHS EDHS EDHS EIDHS EIDHS EDHS EIDHS Public sector 23.7 35 35.7 40.9 47.9 48.6 55.6 Private sector 74.2 63.4 62.7 58.1 51.9 51.2 43.5 Other 2.0 1.2 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.8 Don't Know 0 0.4 1.4 0.5 0 0 0.1 Total 99.9 100 100 100 100 100 100 # of Pharmacies Years # of Pharmacies Source 1978 3880 CAPMAS. 1979. Statistical Indicators (1952-1978), Egypt 1979 4500 CAPMAS. 1980. Statistical Indicators (1952-1979), Egypt 1984 7042 CAPMAS. 1985. Statistical Year Book (1952-1985), Egypt 1987 8962 CAPMAS. 1988. Statistical Year Book (1952-1987), Egypt 1990 12070 CAPMAS. 1991. Statistical Year Book (1952-1990), Egypt 1992* 13761 CAPMAS. 1993. Statistical Year Book (1952-1992), Egypt 1/1/1993* 15777 CAPMAS. 1994. Statistical Year Book (1952-1993), Egypt 1/1/1994* 14711 CAPMAS. 1995. Statistical Year Book (1952-1994), Egypt 1/1/1995* 16249 CAPMAS. 1996. Statistical Year Book (1990-1995), Egypt 1/ 7/1997* 16503 CAPMAS. 1998. Statistical Year Book (1992-1997), Egypt 1/ 7/1998* 20838 CAPMAS. 1999. Statistical Year Book (1992-1998), Egypt 1/ 7/1999* 19544 CAPMAS. 2000. Statistical Year Book (1993-1999), Egypt 1/7/01 27160 CAPMAS. 2002. Statistical Year Book (1994-2001), Egypt 1/1/03 29304 CAPMAS. 2003. Statistical Year Book (1995-2002), Egypt 1/1/04 27179 CAPMAS. 2004. Statistical Year Book (1996-2003), Egypt * Estimates or Preliminary data FP Costs Chart Cost of Family Planning Total Costs Of Family Palnning Agencies Fiscal year NGOs GOE Donor Agencies Client Payments Total NGOs working in FP areas GOE Donor Agencies Client Payement Total 1998/1989 243,045 20,873,347 19,914,857 3,679,611 44,710,860 0.005 0.467 0.445 0.082 1.000 1989/1990 456,475 22,296,679 31,198,496 6,448,728 60,400,378 0.008 0.369 0.517 0.107 1.000 1990/1991 1,499,080 24,463,323 39,282,950 7,059,875 72,305,228 0.021 0.338 0.543 0.098 1.000 1991/1992 1,368,559 29,566,150 39,218,511 9,216,419 79,369,639 0.017 0.373 0.494 0.116 1.000 1992/1993 2,044,418 24,848,395 35,393,209 9,947,464 72,233,484 0.028 0.344 0.490 0.138 1.000 1993/1994 1,707,683 29,409,294 26,942,872 8,505,452 66,565,301 0.026 0.442 0.405 0.128 1.000 1994/1995 1,229,779 52,666,486 34,390,242 7,324,477 95,610,984 0.013 0.551 0.360 0.077 1.000 1995/1996 1,117,568 45,445,310 41,734,131 9,546,471 97,843,480 0.011 0.464 0.427 0.098 1.000 1996/1997 1,130,566 57,993,888 52,323,778 8,596,190 120,044,422 0.009 0.483 0.436 0.072 1.000 1997/1998 927,334 83,403,992 61,511,406 10,242,190 156,084,922 0.006 0.534 0.394 0.066 1.000 1998/1999 812,504 90,892,285 53,935,055 9,092,186 154,732,030 0.005 0.587 0.349 0.059 1.000 1999/2000 125,807 94,823,727 58,831,694 10,723,721 164,504,949 0.001 0.576 0.358 0.065 1.000 Avg. 0.013 0.461 0.435 0.092 1.000 Source: POLICY II Project/Egypt (Forthcoming). The Trends of the Cost of Family Planning Program in Egypt Funding Donor Assistance to Egyptian Family Planning, 1976-1994 ($000) Donor Year 1976-1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 UNFPA 16.000 2.000 2.000 2.000 584 1.160 1.500 1.450 1.440 1.190 1.294 547.0 2.706 World Bank (IBRD) 25.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - IPPF - - - - - - 26 43 60 51 75 81 N.A. Overseas Development Assistance (ODA) (U.K) 8.000 - - - - - - - - - - - - USAID/C* 29.601 14.726 9.419 13.084 8.727 10.112 8.507 15.189 15.593 20.246 ** 10.468 8.599 USAID/W NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 1.25 760 930 1.120 1.640 2.500 Federal Republic of Germany (GTZ & KFW) 807 2.500 2.500 - - - 280 390 460 460 N.A. 600 N.A. Others (Finland, Japan, Dutch) 232 - - - - - - 60 60 42 30 50 N.A. Total 79.64 19.226 13.919 15.084 9.311 11.272 10.313 18.382 18.373 22.919 15.804 13.386 13.805 Source: Robinson, C.Warren and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. * Bilateral funds only, first period of support refers to 1978-1982 ** Include expenditures for $4.1 million in contracetives actually delivered in 1992-1994 Annual Total Health Spending Public Expenditure on Health Public expenditure on health 1990 1992 1994 1996/97 1998/99 2000/2001 2001/2002 as % of total 2.8 3.3 4.4 4.5 6.9 7.2 2.9 as % of GDP 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.4 1.9 Source: UNDP and INP, Egypt HDR. 1994,1995, 1996,1997/98,2003 and2004 Population 1976 Censuses Popupyion from 1976 Census, Egypt Age Groups Male Female 0 652089 606452 1 597109 561681 2 554853 526198 3 523837 498947 4 502577 478869 0 - 4 2830465 2672147 5 489590 464907 6 483391 456005 7 482496 451104 8 485423 449148 9 490687 449078 5-9 2431587 2270242 10 498735 451349 11 510012 456410 12 513385 455659 13 503510 445019 14 484693 427962 10 - 14 2510335 2236399 15 467206 412218 16 449739 396464 17 429936 380977 18 407893 366743 19 384582 353413 15- 19 2139356 1909815 20 360746 339514 21 336081 325176 22 314780 312462 23 298963 302203 24 287002 293614 20 -24 1597572 1572969 25 275105 285231 26 263976 277520 27 253823 269255 28 244350 259734 29 235678 249665 25-29 1272932 1341405 30 228058 240283 31 221243 231128 32 215693 223675 33 211596 218714 34 208555 215422 30- 34 1085145 1129222 35 205903 212152 36 203680 209191 37 201417 205969 38 198782 202023 39 195867 197604 35- 39 1005649 1026939 40 193131 193453 41 190529 189455 42 187308 185123 43 183154 180301 44 178340 175137 40 - 44 932462 923469 45 173473 169910 46 168445 164526 47 163307 159237 48 158147 154184 49 152929 149222 45-49 816301 797079 50 147605 144206 51 142279 139332 52 136665 133776 53 130646 127168 54 124432 119988 50 -54 681627 664470 55 118248 112967 56 111932 105816 57 106384 99798 58 102039 95572 59 98443 92501 55- 59 537046 506654 60 94755 89311 61 91203 86287 62 87128 82856 63 82136 78613 64 76571 73867 60- 64 431793 410934 65 71324 69494 66 66402 65518 Population 1976 67 61175 61107 0 - 4 2,830,465 2,672,147 68 55481 56000 5-9 2,431,587 2,270,242 69 49686 50647 10 - 14 2,510,335 2,236,399 65-69 304068 302766 15- 19 2,139,356 1,909,815 70 44475 45925 20 -24 1,597,572 1,572,969 71 39895 41857 25-29 1,272,932 1,341,405 72 35997 38466 30- 34 1,085,145 1,129,222 73 32933 35919 35- 39 1,005,649 1,026,939 74 30859 34379 40 - 44 932,462 923,469 70 -74 184159 196546 45-49 816,301 797,079 75 29930 34013 50 -54 681,627 664,470 76 30298 34985 55- 59 537,046 506,654 77 32120 37463 60- 64 431,793 410,934 78 35550 41609 65-69 304,068 302,766 79 40742 47591 70 -74 184,159 196,546 75+ 168640 195661 75+ 168,640 195,661 Total 18929137 18156717 18,929,137 18,156,717 37,085,854 Total Population Demographic History and Trends a. Population Growth Total Population (IN 000) (excpect Egyptians abroad) Year Population No. (IN 000) (Excluding Egyptians abroad) 1960 26085 1966 30076 1976 36626 37,085,854 1986 48254 49174149 1996 59313 1997* 59441 1998* 60706 1999* 61993 2000* 63305 2001* 64652 2002* 65986 2003* 67313 2004* 68648 Source:CAMPAS (2002) *Estimates of population in the first of January for the period (1997-2004) IMR,U5MR IMR U5MR Stat Compiler/Ross File 1967 141 243 Any Risk TFR IMR U5MR 1972 146 238 1988 64.3 4.50 73.2 101.8 1976 124 203 1992 60.9 3.90 61.5 84.9 1977 132 191 1995 54.5 3.60 62.6 80.6 1980 108 157 2000 47.9 3.50 43.5 54.3 1981 120 167 2003 41 3.20 44.7 55.1 1983 97 139 1985 97 130 1986 73 102 1988 82 110 1990 62 85 1991 58 75 1993 63 81 1996 52 65 1998 44 54 2001 38 46 2003 EIDHS 2003,Table 7.2 Interpolated Values based on Various EDHS values; some outliers were dopped; values after 2001 are forecast based on trend 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 IMR 124 123.2 122.4 121.6 120.8 120 108.5 97 97 97 92 87 82 72 62 58 56.8 55.6 54.4 53.2 52 48 44 42 40 38 35.4666666667 33.0666666667 30.6666666667 28.2666666667 25.8666666667 U5MR 203 195.8 188.6 181.4 174.2 167 153 139 134.5 130 123.3333333333 116.6666666667 110 97.5 85 75 73 71 69 67 65 60.5 54 51.3333333333 48.6666666667 46 42.2222222222 38.8333333333 35.4444444444 32.0555555556 28.6666666667 IMR,U5MR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 IMR U5MR CBR & CDR Demographic History and Trends b. Fertility and Mortality Trends Year CBR CDR 1960 43.0 16.9 1986 40.0 9.5 1987 39.0 9.5 1988 38.4 8.6 1989 33.9 8.1 1990 32.5 7.6 1991 30.9 7.4 1992 27.7 7.1 1993 29.0 6.9 1994 28.6 6.8 1995 27.9 6.7 1996 28.3 6.5 1997 27.5 6.5 1998 27.5 6.5 1999 27.0 6.4 2000 27.4 6.3 2001 26.7 6.3 2002* 26.3 6.4 2003* 26.1 6.5 Source CAPMAS (2003) - Annual Statistical Year Book *CAPMAS, Population bulletin in the first of January 2003 &2004 cpr vs.tfr TFR CPR 1976 5.6 18.8313653137 1980 5.3 24.2 1984 4.9 30.3 1986 4.4 37.8 1992 4.1 47.1 1995 3.9 47.8 1997 3.6 54.6 1998 3.3 56 2000 3.5 56.1 2003 3.2 60.1 cpr vs.tfr 18.8313653137 24.2 30.3 37.8 47.1 47.8 54.6 56 56.1 60.1 TFR Demographic History and Trends Fertility and Mortality Trends TFR 1979-19801 5.3 1983-19841 4.9 1986-19882 4.4 1990- 19911 4.1 1990-19922 3.9 1993-19952 3.6 1995-19972 3.3 1996-19982 3.4 1997-20002 3.5 2000-20032 3.2 Note: 1Rates are for the 12-month period preceding the survey. 2Rates are for the 36-month period preceding the survey. Source El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. Trends in proximate determinant Demographic History and Trends Trends in proximate determinant of Cc, Cm, Ci Region Cc: index of contraceptive effect Cm: index of marriage delay Ci: index of postparum infecundability 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 1980 1988 1992 Total 0.75 0.60 0.51 0.65 0.60 0.58 0.74 0.72 0.75 Urban Gov. 0.54 0.42 0.40 0.50 0.45 0.47 0.80 0.81 0.81 Lower Urban 0.53 0.43 0.37 0.55 0.55 0.50 0.80 0.81 0.82 Lower Rural 0.81 0.63 0.47 0.68 0.65 0.60 0.71 0.71 0.76 Upper Urban 0.74 0.57 0.50 0.69 0.55 0.53 0.75 0.74 0.78 Upper Rural 0.95 0.88 0.75 0.76 0.73 0.73 0.70 0.66 0.71 Source: Warren C. Robinson and Fatma El-Zanty. July 1995. The Impact of Policy and Program on Fertility in Egypt: The Egyptian Family Planning Success Story. Comparison with other countries Demographic History and Trends Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) Kenya 1989 1993 1998 CPR 26.9 32.7 39.0 TFR 6.7 5.4 4.7 Jordan 1990 1997 CPR 40.0 52.6 TFR 5.6 4.4 Philippines 1993  1998 CPR 40.0 47.8 TFR 4.1 3.7 Colombia 1986  1990  1995  2000 CPR 64.8 66.1 72.2 76.9 TFR 3.2 2.8 3.0 2.6 Egypt 1988  1992  1995  2000 CPR 37.8 47.1 47.9 56.1 TFR 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.5 Source: MEASURE DHS - Country Statistics, http://www.measuredhs.com/ comparison 2 Comparisons with other Countries (TFR, CPR) TFR CPR 1998 1992 1995 1995-2000 1985 1985-92 1990-95 1990-99 Egypt 4.8 4.2 3.6 3.4 33 46 47 55 Tunisia 4 3.6 3.1 2.6 41 50 60 60 Morrocco 4.8 4.5 3.4 3.1 36 42 50 59 Jordan 7.3 5.8 5.4 4.9 26 35 35 53 Iran 5.6 6.1 5 2.8 23 65 65 73 Turkey 3.5 3.6 2.6 2.5 51 63 63 64 Kenya 8.1 6.4 5.1 4.5 14 33 33 39 Indonisia 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.6 48 50 55 57 China 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.3 77 83 83 . Source: UNDP, Human Development Reports 1990,1994, 1998 and 2000 Infant Mortality Trends in Infant Mortality in Egypt, 1964-2003 Approximate reference period Approximate midpoint Survey Infant mortality 1998-2003 2001 2003 EDHS 38 1995-2000 1998 2000 EDHS 44 1993-1998 1996 2003 EDHS 52 1990-1995 1993 2000 EDHS 66 1990 -1995 1993 1995 EDHS 63 1988-1993 1991 2003 EDHS 58 1987-1992 1990 1992 EDHS 62 1985-1990 1988 2000 EDHS 74 1985-1990 1988 1995 EDHS 82 1983-1988 1986 1988 EDHS 73 1982-1987 1985 1992 EDHS 97 1980-1985 1983 2000 EDHS 98 1980-1985 1983 1995 EDHS 97 1978-1983 1981 1988 EDHS 120 1977-1982 1980 1992 EDHS 108 1974-1979 1977 1980 EFS 132 1973-1978 1976 1988 EDHS 124 1969-1974 1972 1980 EFS 146 1964-1969 1967 1980 EFS 141 Note: For the EIDHS, the field work took place principally during May. Thus, the five- year reference periods for this survey can be considered to approximately represent periods starting in May of the year in which the period terminates. For the 2000 EDH Source: El-Zanaty, Fatma and A. Way. 2004. Egypt Interim Demographic and Health Survey 2003,Cairo, Egypt:MOPH and NPC, El-Zanaty and Associates and ORC Macro. High risk fertility behavior High risk fertility behavior % of children born in the five years prior to the suvery who are at elevated risk of mortality according to category of increased risk, Egypt Risk Category 1988 1992 1995 2000 2003 % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio % of births Risk ratio Not in any high-risk category 39.0 1.0 25.3 1.0 28.0 1.0 32.5 1.0 Unavoidable risk category (first births, mother age 18 to 24) NA NA 26.5 1.4 Single high - risk category 39.4 1.2 37.0 1.9 33.2 1.6 28.9 1.4 Multiple high-risk category 21.6 1.9 17.5 3.3 14.7 2.4 12.1 1.9 In any avoidable high risk category 61.0 1.5 54.5 2.4 47.9 1.9 41.0 1.6 Source: DHS 1992,1995,2000 and 2003 (Tables No.10-5,9-5,10-5 and 7-5 Respectively) Maternal Mortality Trends in Maternal Mortality in Egypt Year

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